Justin Smoak hit a walk-off HR in the 9th as the Blue Jays beat the Tigers 4-3 to hand Detroit their 11th straight loss.
Saturday, June 30, 2018
Game #82 Detroit Tigers (36-48) @ Toronto Blue Jays (39-43) - game recap
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
#82 - Detroit Tigers (36-47) at Toronto Blue Jays (38-43)
Saturday, June 30, 2018 | 1:07 pm
Rogers Sauna | Toronto, ON
Matthew Boyd (4-6, 4.15, 1.23 whip) vs. Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.98, 1.23 whip)
PREAMBLE:
The Blue Jays won the series opener last night with a strong start from Marcus Stroman (his first W of the season!) and a two-run HR from Justin Smoak.
It was the Tigers' 10th straight loss, their longest since the 2003 season when they lost an unfathomable 119 games.
By contrast, after a rough spell at home, the Jays have won 9 of their last 10 in the Sauna.
The Tigers are apparently employing a strategy of sending up former Jays lefties to try and overcome their streak. So far, they're 0-1 with that strategy, and it could very well be 0-2 as Boyd is a career 0-3, 8.66 in four starts at the Rogers Sauna.
Friday, June 29, 2018
Game #81 Detroit Tigers (36-47) @ Toronto Blue Jays (38-43) - game recap
Marcus Stroman pitched seven strong innings as the Blue Jays edged the Tigers 3-2
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
#81 - Detroit Tigers (36-46) at Toronto Blue Jays (37-43)
Friday, June 29, 2018 | 7:07 pm
Rogers Sauna | Toronto, ON
Francisco Liriano (3-3, 3.94, 1.25 whip) vs. Marcus Stroman (0-5, 6.80, 1.68 whip)
PREAMBLE:
Today's game marks the midway point of the season. You mean we are only halfway through this interminable season? Oy.
After a tough road trip where the Jays did well enough to go 3-4 against teams well ahead in the standings (*grumbles that it ought to be 4-3 except for a Tepera meatball*), the Jays return home for a four-game set against the Detroit Tigers.
Thursday, June 28, 2018
Getting Pedantic About Vlad Jr.
"So I flip my helmet too before I round the bases?"
As the 2018 Blue Jays slip
further into the darkness, the time has come to dream of brighter days and
fewer shutouts. That means wondering when Vladimir Guererro Jr, destroyer of
minor league New England ballparks, should start murdering baseballs for our
very own Blue Jays.
Unfortunately, baseball abhors
fun, so instead of watching Vladdy fulfill his destiny as a better Delgado we
get to pretend that he is studiously learning to play third base from coaches
who wouldn’t be let into a Major League park without a ticket while congratulating
(or condemning) the front office for their ‘asset management.’
Well, if we’re going to treat
players like assets and MLB like JP Morgan, I figured I’d look more closely at
what it actually means to ‘manage’ an ‘asset’ like Vlad. Basically, what we’re
going to do is evaluate the value that a Vlad Jr ‘asset’ provides to the team
over identical timeframes to try and figure out what the actual loss winds up
being.
We’ll need to make a few assumptions
to make this work that I’ll list below:
Different kind of Assumption
- I’ll be using ‘real’ values for arbitration estimates, FA contract estimates and $/WAR based on 2018 values (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/).
- Vlad will get max arbitration awards and be paid the equivalent of $40m 2018 dollars for his FA1 year because he’s fucking dope.
- Vlad will develop the same way whether he is called up this year or next.
- The team will not let Vladdy walk in free agency
The table below shows the service
time for both approaches:
Obviously, the team gets the same amount of value from
2019-2023. Using this framework, we can express the excess value we get from asset
management as the cost difference between ARB 3 and FA 1 less the excess value
derived from Vladdy’s 2018 season under team control.
Now we need to understand what those numbers are.
Using Donaldson’s record $23 million award for ARB 3 and the
$40 million assumption for FA 1 gives us $17 million excess value from 2024.
This means that, in order for the team to
break even from the manipulation Vlad would need to provide less
than 1.5 WAR ($17/$11.1 million) during the period he plays in 2018.
If we assume that he performs close to how
Harper did over his age 19 season he would be worth 3 WAR over the next 82
games, meaning the strategy would actually lose $16.3 million ($17 - $33.3) in 2018 value (and infinitely more in fun value).
Looks like he grew into the batting helmet
Now let’s talk about relative win values. I know that we are
garbage this year so a win is worth more in a year when we aren’t garbage.
Well, let’s figure out how much more valuable!
Keeping our 3.0 WAR guesstimate for Vladdy, in order to
break even on the asset strategy a 2024 win would need to be worth approx 200% (33.3/17) more than a 2018 win.
Reasonable people can disagree over whether a 2024 win will
be twice as valuable than a 2018 win. According to Nate Silver’s model for the
win curve, the Jays have had 4 seasons in the past 15 in that zone, meaning the
plan is ‘profitable’ 27% of the time. You might be more bullish, but it’s obviously
not a slam dunk from a surplus value perspective.
But let’s mention the elephant in the room. If we let him
walk (or we think we can’t re sign him) all of a sudden this becomes a
different discussion. I’m assuming that we get the same value from Vladdy in
2024 whenever his clock starts. But if you think there’s a 50% chance he
leaves? 75%? Now all of a sudden all of my math is worthless; clutch him tight
and savor the memories while he’s here.
There are obviously lots of good reasons to manipulate
service time, But we should stop thinking about this as an ‘asset management’
strategy. There is basically no asset that gains surplus value by forgoing the
opportunity for present returns. It is actually an insurance policy against the
Yankees or Red Sox giving us a wedgie when the time comes to pay the man.
Whether or not we need that insurance is the real question.
Hopefully Vladito agrees
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Game #80 Toronto Blue Jays (37-43) @ Houston Astros (54-28) - game recap
Alex Bregman hit the game-winning walk-off HR in the bottom of the 9th as the Astros defeated the Blue Jays 7-6
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Game 80! Toronto Birds (37-42) at Houston Stars (53-28)
Wednesday June 27, 2018 | 2:10 pm ET
Minute Maid Park | Houston, Texas
Marco (Polo) Estrada vs. Dallas (Texas..wait they are playing in Texas) Keuchel.
Preamble: Jays need to play better than yesterday if they want to win a game of baseball.
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Game #79 Toronto Blue Jays (37-42) @ Houston Astros (53-28) - game recap
Alex Bregman went 4-5 at the plate with 2 RBI and 2 runs scored as the Astros shut out the Blue Jays 7-0
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
#79 - Toronto Blue Jays (37-41) at Houston Astros (52-28)
Tuesday, June 2, 2018 | 8:10 pm ET
Minute Maid Park | Houston, Texas
Ryan Borucki (First MLB appearance) vs. Charlie Morton (9-1, 2.74, 1.13 whip)
PREAMBLE:
The first of Blue Jays' top-10 young talent has arrived in Houston to make his major league debut against the team that is tied for the most victories in the majors and the defending World Series champions. No pressure at all, kid. Go get 'em, Ryan Borucki.
Including last night's loss, the Astros have gone 3-3 after a 12-game winning streak, so hopefully the Jays have caught them at the right time to make it a competitive series.
So, have you cleaned your shorts after that near-HR by George Springer with two runners on in the 9th inning last night? Thanks to Randal Grichuk, we can breathe easier and look forward to tonight's game with the attitude that whatever good happens tonight with Borucki is gravy.
Monday, June 25, 2018
Game #78 Toronto Blue Jays (37-41) @ Houston Astros (52-28) - game recap
Curtis Granderson hit a pair of solo HR as the Blue Jays knocked off the Astros 6-3 for their 3rd straight victory
The Blue Jays are facing the ultimate test this week, defeating the World Series champs, who look poised for another deep run this year. Tonight's pitching matchup featured a potentially highly coveted trade asset in JA Hap against a pitcher who has already no-hit the Blue Jays once and is in the midst of perhaps the best season of his career in Justin Verlander. Oh yeah and the Astros have a couple of all-stars in the field who have been knocking the cover off the ball in Jose Altuve (.342) and Yuli Gurriel (.306). This series has the makings of being a blowout. Here is tonight's game recap.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
#78 - Toronto Blue Jays (36-41) at Defending World Series Champs (52-27)
Monday, June 25, 2018 | 8:10 pm ET
J.A. Happ (9-3, 3.56, 1.03 whip) vs. Justin Verlander (9-2, 1.60, 0.78 whip)
PRELUDE:
Well, well... we've got perhaps the best pitching matchup of the season for the Jays so far - two pitchers going for their 10th win of the season. And while it seems rather one-sided on paper, Happ has actually outperformed JV in the month of June thus far: Happ 2-0, 2.84, .528 OPS against compared to JV's 2-0, 3.16, .638 OPS against with both throwing 25.1 innings this month -- and Happ's ERA was inflated by two inherited runners scoring in the 9th in his last start.
Including his final three starts of May, Happ is 5-0, 2.35 in his last seven starts. The price keeps going up for him at the trade deadline!
So... sit back and pack a few cold ones, be sure not to miss this game!
ten weekly random thoughts: Week 12 June 18-24
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Sunday, June 24, 2018
Game #77 Toronto Blue Jays (36-41) @ LA Angels (41-37) - game recap
Kendrys Morales hit a huge pinch-hit HR as the Blue Jays beat the Angels 7-6 to earn the series split,
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
#77 - Toronto Blue Jays (35-41) at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (41-36)
Sunday, June 24, 2018 | 4:07 pm ET
Angel Stadium | Anaheim, California
Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.75, 1.25 whip) vs. Felix Pena (0-0, 5.40, 1.50 whip)
PREAMBLE:
New daddy Sam Gaviglio returns to the team to make today's start in place of Jaime Garcia, who has been put on DL with a combination of left shoulder soreness/shittiness. Here's hoping the quality time off spent with his family does wonders to recharge him after a couple of short starts in recent outings.
Assignment #1 for Gaviglio today: Keep Luis Valbuena from hitting HRs.
Felix Pena is making his second MLB start after 38 career appearances out of the bullpen. He faced the Jays once last season while with the Chicago Cubs, striking out the side in an inning. Goins, Montero and Bautista were the K victims; all three are no longer with the team, so let that be a lesson for today's lineup!
Game #76 Toronto Blue Jays (35-41) @ LA Angels (41-36) - game recap
Steve Pearce hit a huge 3-run HR in the top of the 9th as the Blue Jays defeated the Angels 4-1
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Saturday, June 23, 2018
#76 - Toronto Blue Jays (34-41) at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (41-35)
Saturday, June 23, 2018 | 9:07 pm ET
Angel Stadium | Anaheim, California
Oops... that'd an ideal pitching matchup to watch. Here's the actual one for this game...
Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71, 1.71 whip) vs. Jaime Barria (5-3, 3.57, 1.17 whip)
Game #75 Toronto Blue Jays (34-41) @ LA Angels (41-35) - game recap
Albert Pujols was 2-3 at the plate and scored the game winning run as the Angels beat the Blue Jays 2-1 in a pitcher's duel.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Friday, June 22, 2018
no. 75 - Toronto Blue Jays (34-40) at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (40-35)
Friday, June 22, 2018 | 10:07 pm
Angel Stadium of Anaheim | Anaheim, CA
Marco Estrada (4-6, 4.66, 1.32 whip) vs. Andrew Heaney (3-5, 3.64, 1.10 whip)
Game #74 Toronto Blue Jays (34-40) @ LA Angels (40-35) - game recap
Angels 3B Luis Valbeuna hit a pair of home runs as the Angels defeated the Blue Jays 8-5
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Thursday, June 21, 2018
no. 74 - Toronto Blue Jays (34-39) at Los Angeles Angels (39-35)
Thursday, June 21, 2018 | 10:07 pm ET
Angel Stadium of Anaheim | Anaheim, CA
Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.35, 1.39 whip) vs. John Lamb (0-0, 3.60, 0.80 whip)
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Game #73 Atlanta Braves (43-30) @ Toronto Blue Jays (34-39) - game recap
JA Happ pitched 8.1 strong innings as the Blue Jays defeated the Braves 5-4 to earn the series split. The two teams will meet again July 10-11 in Atlanta.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
no. 73 - Atlanta Braves (43-29) at Toronto Blue Jays (33-39)
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
Game #72 Atlanta Braves (43-29) @ Toronto Blue Jays (33-39) - game recap
Braves No. 9 hitter Charlie Culberson was 4-5 at the plate with 5 RBI and 2 runs scored and he sacrificed his body to make a great catch in LF to save a pair of runs as the Braves routed the Blue Jays 11-4
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
no. 72 - Atlanta Braves (42-29) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (33-38)
Tuesday, June 19, 2018 | 7:07 pm
Rogers Centre | Toronto, ON
Mike Soroka (RHP, 2-1, 2.57, 1.29 whip) vs. Jaime Garcia (LHP, 2-5, 5.71, 1.56 whip)
PREAMBLE:
It's the RETURN OF ALEX A.A. ANTHOPOULOS as a G.M. of the Baaaarves! I can imagine that Oakville has stocked his living room full of red wine and Greek olives in preparation for this long-awaited reunion-of-sorts.
As well, it's a second debut for Mike Soroka, the 20-year-old from Calgary, who is making his first major league appearance on Canadian soil. He comes in having made four solid starts as a Brave to start his career.
More Canadian content - Freddie Freeman is having an MVP-type of season for the Braves, hitting .337/.427/.585 (the latter two leads the NL) with 15 HR so far.
The Blue Jays look to continue their inter-league dominance, having gone 6-2 so far this season, including a sweep of a (allegedly) strong Washington Nationals team this past weekend.
Monday, June 18, 2018
Ten weekly random thoughts - week 11 June 11-17
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Sunday, June 17, 2018
Game #71 Washington Nationals (37-31) @ Toronto Blue Jays (33-38) - game recap
Randal Grichuk had a huge day at the plate with 2 HR and 4 RBI as the Blue Jays defeated the Nationals 8-6 to complete the series sweep.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
no. 71 - Washington Nationals (37-30) at Toronto Blue Jays (32-38)
Sunday, June 17, 2018 | 1:07 pm
Rogers Centre | Toronto, Ontario
Tanner Roark (3-7, 3.63, 1.11 whip) vs. Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.66, 1.16 whip)
Saturday, June 16, 2018
Game #70 Washington Nationals (37-30) @ Toronto Blue Jays (32-38) - game recap
Marco Estrada pitched 6.2 strong innings to lead the Blue Jays to a 2-0 victory over the Washington Nationals.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
no. 70 - Washington Nationals (37-29) at Toronto Blue Jays (31-38)
Saturday, June 16, 2018 | 4:07 pm
Rogers Centre | Toronto, ON
Mad Max Scherzer (10-2, 2.00, 0.85 whip) vs. Marco Estrada (3-6, 5.09, 1.37 whip)
Friday, June 15, 2018
Game #69 Washington Nationals (37-29) @ Toronto Blue Jays (31-38) - game recap
Yangervis Solarte blasted a pair of 2 run HR as the Blue Jays beat the Nationals 6-5
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Toronto Blue Jays,
Washington Nationals
I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
no. 69 (cue sophomoric giggling) - Washington Nationals (37-28) at Toronto Blue Jays (30-38)
Friday, June 15, 2018 | 7:07 pm
Rogers Centre | Toronto, Ontario
Gio Gonzalez (LHP, 6-2, 2.65, 1.31 whip) vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP, 3-5, 4.33, 1.50 whip)
PREAMBLE:
Congratulations to the Toronto Blue Jays as they managed to not lose a game yesterday for a change. (shhh, don't remind me that they didn't play yesterday).
The wait is over -- fans of the Blue Jays will finally get to see a 19-year-old phenom. Except, it's not Vladdy Jr, but rather Juan Soto, who is hitting .344/.447/.641 with five HRs in 64 at-bats since being called up.
Can the Blue Jays snap their long, non-oriLOLe streak of futility against the team that inspired the 'Nappening' team-bonding that sparked their (eventual) playoff run in 2015?
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Game #68 Toronto Blue Jays (30-38) @ Tampa Bay Rays (32-35) - game recap
Rays 3B Matt Duffy drove in the game-winning run in the bottom of the 9th as the Rays Beat the Blue Jays 1-0 to complete the series sweep.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
no. 68 - Toronto Sacrificial Lambs (30-37) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (31-35)
Wednesday, June 13, 2018 | 1:10 pm
Tropicana Field | St. Petersburg, FL
J.A. Happ (8-3, 3.71, 1.08 whip) vs. Wilmer Font (0-3, 9.59, 1.78 whip)
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
Game #67 Toronto Blue Jays (30-37) @ Tampa Bay Rays (31-35) - game recap
Rays catcher Wilson Ramos hit a key 2 run HR and called a great game behind the plate as the Rays defeated the Blue Jays 4-1. Toronto looks to avoid being swept tomorrow afternoon
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Monday, June 11, 2018
Game #66 Toronto Blue Jays (30-36) @ Tampa Bay Rays (30-35) - game recap
Tampa Bay Rays 1b was 2-3 at the plate, including hitting his first career HR as the Rays doubled up on the Blue Jays 8-4
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
#66 - Toronto Blue Jays (30-35) at Tampa Bay Rays (29-35)
Ten weekly random thoughts - week 10 - June 4-10
I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Sunday, June 10, 2018
Game #65 Baltimore Orioles (19-45) @ Toronto Blue Jays (30-35) - game recap
Curtis Granderson was 4-5 at the plate with 6RBI and 2 runs scored as the Blue Jays routed the Orioles 13-3 and swept the 4 game series and finished the home stand 4-2
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Game #65 Baltimore Orioles (19-44) at Toronto Blue Jays (29-35)
Sunday, June 10th, 2018
11:07 EDT / Skydome / Toronto, Ontario
Alex Cobb (2-7, 6.19 ERA) v. Marco Estrada (2-6, 5.29 ERA)
Saturday, June 9, 2018
Game #64 Baltimore Orioles (19-44) @ Toronto Blue Jays (29-35) - game recap
Yangervis Solarte was 2-5 at the plate with a RBI and a run scored as the Blue Jays won 4-3 in extra innings over the Orioles. Tomorrow they go for the series sweep.
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
Game #64 Baltimore Orioles (19-43) at Toronto Blue Jays (28-35)
Saturday, June 9th, 2018
11:07 EDT / Skydome / Toronto, Ontario
Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.63 ERA) v. AA-Ron Sanchez (3-5, 4.48 ERA)
Friday, June 8, 2018
Game #63 Baltimore Orioles (19-43) @ Toronto Blue Jays (28-35) - game recap
JA Happ pitched 7 strong innings for his 100th career win as the Blue Jays won their second straight game with a 5-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles
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I am a graduate from SFU with a major in psychology and a minor in Health Sciences. I am a huge advocate for children w/ Special Needs. I'm a huge Canucks fan. As well I love watching baseball in the summer. I have an 8-year-old Havanese-Shih Tzu
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