ten random thoughts: midseason review

 

The 2026 MLB season is shaping up to be more similar to the 2024 season that saw the Blue Jays finish dead last in the AL East versus 2025 where they came inches from their third world series title. Injuries have had a significant impact on the results. There have also been regressions in performance - some expected since several players had career years last year. In this edition of ten random thoughts, we'll look back at the first half of the season injuries, players who impressed, those who disappointed and more. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. There is no question that injuries have had a major impact on the season. The starting rotation has taken a significant hit. Trey Yesavage started the season on the IL with a right shoulder impingement and missed the first month of the season. He's had a few rough outings and some solid starts. Yesavage is 4-4 with a 3.72ERA over 14 starts. Needs to work on his command. Shane Bieber, who returned from Tommy John surgery, also started the season on the IL after he had issues ramping up. Bieber missed the first 2 months of the season and has been hit hard in his starts. There has to be concern about te drop in velocity and ommand issues. Bieber is 0-1 with a 7.64ERA over 4 starts.  Command is a massive concern. Jose Berrios will not throw a pitch in 2026 after he tried to pitch through a stress fracture in his elbow that damaged his UCL, leading to season ending tommy john surgery.. Cody Ponce tore his ACL stumbling off the mound - season over after 2.1 innings. Alejandro Kirk fractures his thumb on his catching hand on a foul tip April 5th - missed 2 months. Then we get to Addison Barger, who managed to sprain both ankles  on a play at first base, came back and hurt his elbow on a max throw to gun down a runner at home. Nathan Lukes played through vertigo the first part of the season. The impact to the rotation and bullpen as been significant with the Blue Jays having a bullpen game every five days and for 2 weeks when Dylsn Cease went on the IL with a hamstring strain. This put significant pressure on Cease, Kevin Gausman, Eric Lauer and Max Scherzer to pitch deep into games. Alejandro Kirk's injury afforded prospect Brandon Valenzuela a great run. He outplayed Tyler Heineman and is now platooning with Kirk. Barger's injury led an opportunity for Yohendrick Pinago and Jesus Sanchez. Injuries are not the only reason the season hasn't gone as expected.

2. Perhaps the biggest impacts of the off-season were the loss of Don Mattingly, who went to the Phillies and Bo Bichette who signed with the Mets. Bichette was always going to be a big bat to replace in the lineup. He was the Blue Jays most consistennt hitter most years and that far outweighed any defensive flaws he had. Hitting right in front of his buddy Vladdy, Bichette provided that protection for Vlad in the lineup. Mattingly was a key part of the coaching staff last year and gave the players a solid voice to turn to. Bichette didn't get off to a great start in NY, drawing boos from the unhappy Mets crowd. He's slowly getting better, batting .255 with 10HR and 51RBI over 96 games and 380AB. You have to wonder if Bichette regrets chasing the money when he could have gone for the familiar option.

3. Three Blue Jays who have impressed:

• Louis Varland - Acquired in a trade deadline deal last year, Louis Varland took over the closer's role from a struggling Jeff Hoffman and converted 18 straight save opportunities. He's as automatic as you get with a reliever and has an era below 1.00
• Brandon Valenzuela - An injury to Alejandro Kirk gave the top catching prospect a 2-month trial to show his stuff. He outplayed backup Tyler Heineman, who was DFA'd and eventually traded to the Angels. Valenzuela has hit .241 with 7HR and 20RBI. He's done a good job with managing the pitchers - though he has some room for improvement on play calling.
• Kazuma Okamoto - Signed in the off-season to replace Bichette, Okamoto has turned in an all-star worthy performance with 22HR and 62RBI and is 2nd on the team with 81 hits. Okamoto has made some nice defensive plays at the hot corner too. A bright spot in a down year.

4. Three Blue Jays who have disappointed

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - It's pretty obvious that Vlad is playing through a lower back injury that is greatly affecting his swing. However, when you are making $500 million, 4HR and none at home through half the season is unacceptable. He regularly jogs to first base when he thinks he's a sure out. This team needs him to lead with his bat and play the right way to inspire his team. Guerrero Jr. did the right thing not playing in the all-star game when Ben Rice and Nick Kurtz deserved the honor more.
• Jeff Hoffman and Brendon Little - It seems Jeff Hoffman had the yips after he blew the save in game seven of the world series. He has blown saves (including the final game of the 1st half Sunday) so far this season and converted 5 saves. Hoffman has done a bit better in a lower leverage role in the 7th inning. Hoffman is 5-6 with a 4.57ERA over 42 appearances. Brendon Little has blown a further 2 saves and struggled badly with his command. He was sent down for a month and raised his already inflated ERA to 27.00 in his one appearance on a second chance against the Cubs. When you are a reliever, whether you come in for the 9th inning or the middle of the game, you better be throwing strikes and getting batters out. Neither Little nor Hoffman have been able to do that and it directly costed the team at least 6 wins.
• Eric Lauer - Here's a pitcher who plsyed a significant role in the 2025 team's success as a 5th starter and later long man out of the bullpen. Lauer started the 2026 season pencilled in as the 4th starter with injuries to Bieber, Yesavage and Berrios. Unfortunately, Lauer could not replicate what he accomplished in 2025 and wound up going 1-6 over 8 games (6 starts). Even worse, he copped an attitude about having an opener pitch in front of him when he wasn't getting the job done when he was handed the ball first. Lauer was DFA'd and traded to the Dodgers in mid-May

5. The next major point of the season is the trade deadline. At this point, the team is looking more like they will be sellers given they are mired in a slump and not showing any signs of going on the magical run they did last year that started with a Canada Day blowout of the Yankees. They could use another starter and some reliable bats. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer (will probably/should retire), Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho and Yimi Garcia are all slated to be UFA's at the end of the season.  The Blue Jays should get what they can for each of them - I can see a team taking a flyer on Springer's bat, Gausman and Varsho. Garcia, Bieber and Scherzer are all big question marks or injury risks. 

6. The real changes needed with the firing of John Schneider, Pete Walker and David Popkins shown the door won't happen until the off-season. It would be very awkward for John Schneider to be the manager of the all-star game and be out of a job technically. I've been calling for Pete Walker to be replaced for a couple of years now. He's been their voice for 13 years now and the starters aren't getting deep into games and it can be an adventure to get a lead to the 9th inning. Also, you have to wonder if the training the pitchers are doing led to some of the injuries/ineffectiveness. John Schneider was handed a new contract after nearly leading the team to their 3rd world series title. Yogi Berra was the only manager fired right after losing the world series. A major issue appears to be the culture in the locker room, this tesm doesn't feel as close to each other as last year's team did. A manager largely dictates how the clubhouse acts. The team needs a manager who will hold players accountable and playing hard every game. Popkins needs to go too because while some regression was to be expected after career years from several of the players, the amount and severity has been alarming. This is largely the same team as last year minus Bichette and Chris Bassitt. You aren't winning many games in this league scoring 1 or 2 runs. If the Blue Jays miss the playoffs all three of Schneider, Popkins and Walker need to be replaced.

7. This is the first season where the automated ball strike system (aka ABS) has been implemented in the MLB. It has been extensively tested in the minors the last few seasons, as most major rule changes are. Baseball purists will say it is taking away the human element of the game. The system is necessary because the catching game has changed to a lot more framing of pitches where catchers will pull the ball back into the strike zone. By definition, the strike zone is the width of home plate with the vertical boundaries at the batter's shoulders to just below the hollow of the kneecap. The Blue jays are near the bottom of the league overall. Teams get 2 challenges each game and an extra challenge if the game goes to extra innings and the team is out of ABS challenges The Blue Jays have been about 50-50 on ABS challenges with the catchers successfully overturning 54.1% of the 85 pitches they have challenges and the batters have a 47.7% success rate on 85 pitches that were challenged. Davis Schneider has the best success rate, successfully overturning 75% of the 11 pitches he challenged. As expected, there are more challenges in games where umpires with a bad reputation for calling balls and strikes is behind the plate. CJ Buckner, one of the worst umpires will be retiring after this season.

8. A different kind of strike is expected to impact the 2027 season with the current CBA set to expire. You csn bet the owners will be pushing hard to implement a hard salary cap. The MLB is the only major sports tean without a hard cap. Instead, the big spenders like the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Dodgers are paying luxury taxes when their payroll hits different thresholds. A hard cap would make it a lot more difficult for a team like the Dodgers to create a super team with the most expensive players. There needs to be a floor, like the NHL has, as well or the cheapest owners will money ball their roster like the A's in 2002 with cheaper players with less talent/upside. The league also has to close the major loophole where teams can defer salary in contracts. Shohei Ohtani's deal is exhibit A of why that loophole needs to close. The player's union is pushing for younger players to start receiving the big bucks sooner. The MLB. There are several past strikes that impacted games. In 1972, the players walked off the job for 1.5 weeks, winning them the right to salary arbitration. The following season, spring training was delayed over the salary arbitration clause. In 1976, the fight was over the reserve clause. Cardinals OF Curt Flood sued the league over the issue (the supreme court sided with the MLB). The reserve clause was eventually removed and free agency was born. 1981 was the first year to significantly impact regular season games with 712 games lost in the 58 day strike spanning June 12-August 9. The owners won partially with teams that lost a premium free agent being allowed to pick an unprotected player from any team and not just the signing team and restricted free agency was restricted to players with 6 or more years of MLB experience. 1985 saw a 2-dsy strike that increased the league minimum salary to $60000, an increase of $20000 from $40000. In 1990, the owners made the first attempt at a salary cap but caved early, leading to a delay to the start of the regular season with no games lost. Four years later, the 1994-95 strike wiped out the 1994 World series. The Montreal Expos were hurt most by this strike and it really started the ball rolling on their relocation to Washington a decade later. Replacement players were approved for the 1995 season. Interestingly, the Ontario labour code prevented te use of replacement players or umpires. The strike also led to the current situation with the luxury tax. It is almost certain the league will lockout the players come December 1. The question is who blinks first and will either side endure long enough to impact regular season games. I say the owners cave first and there will be some baseball next year, but maybe not the full 162 games.

9. Finally, let's do the major award leaders at the midway point of the season:

• AL MVP Yordon Alvarez Astros -In a year where Aaron Judge is dealing with an elbow injury, Yordan Alvarez is leading the AL in HR (31), RBI (70), hits (111) and is second in batting average (.318). He's doing all that playing on a bad team.
• NL MVP - Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers - he's giving his team a chance to win every 5 days with a 10-4 record and 1.62ERA and 0.76WHIP
• AL CY YOUNG - Louis Varland Blue Jays - The veteran reliever, acquired in a deadline deal laat year, has been lights out all year, converting 18 straight saves since taking over the closer role for a struggling Jeff Hoffman. He has a 3-3 record with a 1.10EERA and 0.98WHIP. Somewhere Mariano Rivera is smiling.
• NL CY YOUNG Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers - see above - dominant simply dominant
• AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kazuma Okamoto Blue Jays - Okamoto was a great signing by Ross Atkins. Okamoto leads the league  among rookies in HR (22) and  is first in the AL in RBI (62) and  second in the AL in hits (81). He could be hitting better for average (.239) but that's been a team-wide issue. Okamoto has also made some great plays at the hot corner
• NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR Foster Griffin - Nationals - The rookie lefty is 10-2 with a solid 2.77ERA over 19 starts - not bad on a team playing .500 baseball
• AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR Will Venable - White Sox - The ex-big leaguer has taken the south siders from dead last and a 100 loss season to 1st in the AL Central heading into the all-star break. They made a big early statement, sweeping the Blue Jays in Chicago the first weekend of April. They also took the season series against the defending world series champs LA Dodgers. The White Sox have already claimed the season series against one of their division rivals the KC Royals. Can they keep it going post all-star break?
• NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR  - Walt Weiss - Braves - The veteran manager has the Braves sitting first in the NL East after a subpar 76-86 record last season - good for 4th in the NL East. The challenge will be holding off a surprising Marlins team and an always challenging Phillies team.

10. Blue Jay of the 1st half - Louis Varland. He's THE reason the Blue Jays are hanging around the playoff picture. Take away those 18 saves and the Blue Jays are definite sellers at the deadline.

Ten random thoughts: a look ahead to the 2026 MLB season

 

In just three sleeps, the Blue Jays will open the 50th season in franchise history. 142 days ago, the Blue Jays came within inches of hoisting the world series trophy for the 3rd time in franchise history. Bo Bichette, now a NY Met, hit a 3-run HR that was oh so close to holding up, until closer Jeff Hoffman gave up a game tying home run to Miguel Rojas on a full count. The Blue Jays won't be taken lightly that's for sure. Time to look ahead to the 2026 season, which could be the last baseball we see for a while with the CBA set to expire. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. Let's kick things off with a look at the injuries and their impact going forward. Anothony Santander had a nightmare 2025 season, playing just 54 games in the regular season before being shut down with back and shoulder injuries. He played five games in the postseason before being shut down for good after being removed after the 5th inning of game 3 of the ALCS. Santander finished the 2025 season batting .175 with 6HR and 18RBI in just 194AB. As the Blue Jays were making their way to Duneedin, manager John Schneider announced that Santander was to undergo major shoulder surgery and would miss 5-6 months. Assuming no setbacks, Santander might be back by beginning of August Signed to a huge 5-year deal last year, the contract has aged very poorly. The Blue Jays were hopeful that Santander would add a big bat as  a DH/4th outfielder. Alas, he's spent more time on the IL and at this point, DH looks like the best position for him. 

Bowden Francis's season is over before it began as he underwent tommy john surgery the same week as Santander. Francis struggled in 2025, going 2-8 with a 6.05ERA over 14 starts before being placed on the IL with a shoulder injury that ended his season. Francis, if healthy, would have been in the mix for a spot in the Blue Jays rotation.

Former ace Jose Berrios is another pitcher who has had tough injury luck. The latest concern is a stress fracture in his pitching elbow. You don't want to mess with that with the UCL right in that area. He'll be monitored closely. Berrios was 9-5 with a 4.17ERA in 2025.  Once he's back, he'll be a key part of the rotation and will be asked to eat some innings. Here's hoping he keeps the ball in the ballpark.\

Lefty prospect Rickey Tiedermann, who missed the entire 2025 season rehabbing from July 2024 tommy john surgery, finds himself in a familiar position after experiencing soreness in his left elbow. No pun intended, but Tiedermann just can't catch a break and there is an opportunity there for him in the Blue Jays pitching fold, but he has to get healthy and prove he can stay healthy before he'll get that opportunity. The good news is the MRI came back clean - meaning he did not re-tear the UCL.

Reliever Yimi Garcia, who has also been snake bit by injuries in recent seasons, starts 2026 on the IL as he continues to work his way back from late-season elbow surgery. Garcia is going to be a key cog in the bullpen, and a potential candidate as closer on days Jeff Hoffman needs a day off and setuup man. Garcia was 1-2 with a 3.86ERA over 22 appearances in 2025.

Acquired at the trade deadline, Shane Bieber will start the season on the IL with right forearm fatigue. Bieber returned from tommy john surgery and made some key starts for the Blue Jays down the stretch. He opted to take the player option to give him a full season to showcase his talents before testing free agency. Bieber was 4-2 with a 3.57ERA over 7 starts in the regular season. He took the loss in game 7 of the world series.

Finally, phenom Trey Yesavage, who rocketed up the depth charts, starting at the single A level in Vancouver before humbling the mighty Dodgers lineup in the world series, will get a delayed start to his 2026 season as he deals with a shoulder impingement. Yesavage is likely going to continue to enjoy success since he's still relatively unknown. Eventually batters will adapt to his pitches, but the video on him is still relatively limited.

In a nutshell, the Blue Jays will start with a rotation anchored by ace Kevin Gausman, free agent signing Dylan Cease (8-12 with a 4.55ERA in 32 starts in 2025), lefty Eric Lauer (9-2 with a 3.18ERA in 28 games, 15 starts in 2025), newcomer Cody Ponce, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2021 and Max Scherzer, who inked a one year deal a few weeks ago when the Blue Jays realized they needed some depth in the rotation with injuries to pitchers (Scherzer was 5-5 with a 5.19ERA over 17 starts last season). Scherzer himself has injury concerns with a thumb injury that hampered him last season, but appears ok for the moment. Here's hoping no more injuries occur!

2. At long last, the MLB is implementing automatic balls and strikes, which will limit the catchers ability to steal a strike by dramatically pulling the ball back into the strike zone. Batters will no longer be able to crouch to make the strike zone smaller. The system was tested in the minors the last couple of seasons and in spring training last year. Teams will get 2 challenges per game, which must be initiated by the batter, catcher or pitcher by tapping their head. Challenges are retained if successful and teams get an extra challenge in extra innings if they are out of challenges. The Dominican Republic certainly wishes they could have benefited from the system after being eliminated in the semi-finals of the recent world baseball classic on a strikeout that appeared low. Expect a lot of early challenges, especially when there's an umpire behind the plate that historically doesn't have a great reputation of accuracy. Another rule coming in for this season limits base runners who try to draw an obstruction call, like Josh Naylor did in the ALCS game 5. Bottom line, players need to give fielders room to make the play. Violators will be called out and runners return to their original base. Finally, the MLB is going to be enforcing, through warnings and evictions, that base coaches remain in their boxes. This will mean that decisions will have to be made quicker to send runners home on base hits.

Three Blue Jays to watch:

• Jeff Hoffman - The Blue Jays closer will be looking for redemption after giving up the game-tying home run in game seven of the world series. He had a solid regular season with 33 saves, but gave up 33 home runs (the most by a reliever) and blew 7 saves in the regular season and the most important save in the post season. Load management is going to be important to keep Hoffman sharp and healthy. His velocity was dropping in the latter half of the season and his second half was worse as a result. It would be good if newcomer Tyler Rogers or Louis Varland would emerge as a viable closer option so the Blue Jays could reduce Hoffman's workload.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - With the free agency departure of Bo Bichette to the NY Mets, this has become Vlad's team. Guerrero Jr. will be under pressure to replicate his career 2021 season, that needs to have an asterisk next to it since a good chunk was played in a minor league ballpark due to the COVID  restrictions in Toronto, when he batted .311 with 48HR (best in the AL), 111RBI and led the league in runs scored (123), on-base% (.401), slugging% (.601), on-base +  slugging% (1.002) and total bases (363). He won't have the same protection that Bichette provided. 
• Kazuma Okamoto - The Japanese phenom provides the Blue Jays with some stability at the hot corner. He's made some nice plays in spring training and hit .333. Last season, Okamoto hit .322 with 15 HR and 51RBI over 77 games. He'll start hitting lower in the lineup and could move up based on performance.

4. Three series to watch

• April 6-8 vs. LA Dodgers - The Blue Jays get an early rematch against the back to back champs LA Dodgers, who added Kyle Tucker to an already dangerous lineup. The Dodgers are largely the same team as last year and stand a strong chance to three peat. This will be a good early test for the Blue Jays
• July 3-5 @ Seattle Mariners - The Mariners will get their ALCS rematch on the 4th of July long weekend. Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez and Canadian Josh Naylor will be the bats to watch out for in this lineup. The Mariners are a team full of players entering their primes. The rematch in Toronto is the last weekend of August
• June 29-July 1 vs. NY Mets - The same week of the ALCS rematch, Bo Bichette makes his return to Toronto. If the Blue Jays are struggling offensively, Ross Atkins might want to stay away from the Roger's center that week because any boos that come with the tribute video will be directed at Atkins for not getting Bichette signed. As much as Bichette was criticized for his defense, he was arguably the Blue Jays most consistent hitter, batting over .300 in 4 of his 7 seasons in Toronto and leading the league in hits in both 2021 and 2022 with 191 and 189 hits respectively. Oddly, the Mets want him to play the hot corner, a position he's never played either in the majors or minors. Bichette has been an everyday shortstop, but played the ALCS and world series at 2nd base to protect a knee injury from sliding into home plate late in the regular season. Here's hoping Bichette stays healthy until the series so he can play in it.

5. Legendary Blue Jays broadcaster Buck Martinez has decided to retire after 2 years of battling and beating cancer twice. Martinez served as primary catcher to legandary Blue Jays pitcher Dave Stieb in 1982 and 1983. His playing career was effectively ended July 9 1985 on an home plate collision where he managed to help turn and complete a rare 9-2-7-2 double play while sprawled on the Kingdome turf with a broken leg. Over 6 seasons as a Blue Jays, Martinez batted .222 with 35HR and 154RBI. After his playing career was done, Buck turned to broadcating where he was the color analyst on TSN until 2001 when he became the Blue Jays manager for 2 seasons. The Blue Jays were a combined 100-115 in those 2 seasons. A decade later, Martinez returned to the Blue Jays broadcast booth a decade later as play-by-play man for Sportsnet. Many of the legendary broadcasters developed their own catch phrases. For instance, Hawk Harrelson of the White Sox would yell "you can put it on the boaaard! Yes!" on home runs and "He gone!" for a strikeout. The Yankees Michael Kay yells "See ya!" on home runs. For MAartinez, his iconic catchphrase was "swing and a drive" Martinez did a commendable job of educating the average fan on baseball and especially the catcher position. Martinez will be honored and be inducted as the first member of hall of excellence on August 29. It would be neat if Martinez started his own podcast like Don Cherry has done, but I suspect Martinez is done with analyzing baseball and will want to complete his bucket list while his health allows him to.

6. As the Blue Jays celebrate their 50th season, they will likely get a few of the alumni to throw out the 1st pitch. A few suggestions of who should get the honor: George Bell (1st to win MVP award as a Blue Jay), Pat Borders (1992 world series MVP), Bobby Cox (managed the Blue Jays to their 1st playoff appearance), Carlos Delgado (had 4-home run game), Jerry Johnson (recorded 1st win in franchise history), Josh Johnson (2015 MVP), Doug Ault (hit first home run in franchise history), and Pat Hentgen 1996 Cy Young)

7. As mentioned in the preamble, fans better enjoy this season because it is very likely that baseball is headed towards a lockout in the offseason. The big issue is going to be about a salary cap, vehemently opposed by the players.The MLB is the only league without a hard salary cap. Instead, their is a luxury tax applied, something big spenders like the Dodgers scoff at. Even if the players manage to avoid a salary cap, the loophole of deferring contracts must be closed. Without it, Ohtani would likely be in Toronto and not LA and the Dodgers would not have as many of the best players they are able to buy every season. It woulsd also make the teams operating on smaller payrolls more competitive since some of the better free agents would be available to sign at a cheaper price. The players are also opposing changes to the revenue sharing agreement with the MLB proposing a higher dependency on gate ticket sales and local revenue. The MLB is also seeking a draft on international talent. The players are seeking to have prospects paid at younger ages and they want more control of on-field rules. 

8. One way the MLB can sweeten the pot is by allowing active MLB players to participae in the 2028 olympics. There is a huge logistical issue that would need to be resolved. There is really no way to make up 2 weeks of missed games should the MLB opt to shut down the season during the 2-week window. Unlike the NHL, which is currently playing a condenced schedule with teams playing pretty much every other day, the MLB plays every day. You can't really extend the season much more  becuse the weather will start getting bad in some of the  MLB cities and even snow could be a factor if, say the Yankees were to make the world series. Also, players need time to rest and build back up, especially those who played in the postseason. Maybe the MLB tries it for 2028 since the games ar being held in Los Angeles

9. As part of the celebrations of the 50th season, the Blue Jays should honor a team from each decade every month, I would do it in chronological order: April: 1977 team (inaugural team), May: 1985 team (1st team to make the playoffs), June: 1992 team (first team to win the world series) August: 2003 team (Roy Halladay Cy Young year) and September: 2015 team (made it to the ALCS; Josh Donaldson MVP year).

10. Typically I put the Blue Jay of the week/month in this spot, but since the season hasn't started yet, I'm going with my projected Blue Jay of the year: Vlad. Guerrero Jr. is going to be more motivated than ever to dominate the league having gotten so close to hoisting the world series trophy 5 months ago. Also, this is effectively his team now that Bo Bichette has left for the Mets in free agency. He knows that he can put up bigger power numbers like hs dad used to do.

Ten Random Thoughts - a recap of the 2025 season and a look ahead to the offseason

 

The 2025 season came to a heartbreaking end in extra innings in game 7 of the world series after a stellar regular season that saw the Blue Jays completely exceed expectations, winning the AL East for the first time since 2015. They accomplished the feat in large part thanks to 49 comeback wins (second most in franchise history to the 1987 squad that had 50 comeback wins). The final tale of the tape for the regular season: 29 series wins (9 series sweeps), 20 series losses (swept 4 times) and 4 series splits. They won 19 season series (swept 5 season series), lost 8 season series (were swept in 1 season series) and they split 2 season series.  They won season series against every division rival but Baltimore. George Springer turned back the clock a decade. Here are ten random thoughts in the season review and a look ahead to the off season

1. Injuries had a big impact on the Blue Jays.  Yimi Garcia had a rough year, missing  6 weeks with shoulder injury.  He came back,  made one more appearance and injured his ankle in the treatment room slipping near the hot tub. While rehabbing Garcia encountered an elbow issue while rehabbing and had season ending surgery August 29th. His absence meant pitchers like Louis Varland, Brandon Little and Brayden Fisher were asked to pitch in higher leverage situations Garcia finished the year 1-2 with a 3.86ERA. Nick Sandlin was another reliever who had an injury riddled season. He missed the last two months of the season.  His injury likely contributed to the Blue Jays acquiring Varland and Seranthony Dominguez at the trade deadline. Sandlin missed a month with a lat strain early in the season, returned for a couple of weeks then landed back on the IL with elbow inflammathon that ended his season. Sandlin finished the year with an 0-2 record and a 2.20 ERA over 19 appearances. The rotation was also stretched thin by injuries. Perhaps the biggest impact was the thumb injury to Max Scherzer that caused a lat strain and for him to leave his first regular season start after just 3 innings. Scherzer missed almost three months before returning to the rotation June 25th. He had games where he pitched like he was 20 years younger and other games where many pundits felt his career was all but over. He had a huge win in game 4 of the ALCS to tie the series at 2-2. The Blue Jays tried to fill his rotation spot with varying levels of success, from Easton Lucas (3-3 with a 6.60 ERA over 5 starts) to Eric Lauer (9-2 with a 3.18ERA over 18 appearances (15 starts)) and bullpen games too. Bowden Francis (2-8 with a 6.05ERA over 14 starts) had a rough season as well, eventually getting shut down with a shoulder injury. His absence and ineffectiveness, combined with Scherzer's thumb, really put a lot of pressure on Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt to go deep in their starts to save the bullpen. Berrios (9-5 with a 4.10ERA over 30 starts) was placed on the IL with right-elbow inflammation and ran out of time to make it back by the world series. He, along with Chris Bassitt, who missed the ALDS with a shoulder issue, forced the Blue Jays to punch their ticket to the ALCS via a bullpen game. Bassitt finished the year 11-9 with a 3.96ERA over 31 starts). He did a solid job in a relief role too

As far as position player injuries go, not sure who had the tougher season: Daulton Varsho or Anthony Santander. Varsho missed the first month completing rehab from off-season shoulder surgery, played a month then missed 2 more months with a hamstring strain. Varsho's defense is one of the best in the league so that was missed. Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw and George Springer were in CF in his absence. Varsho batted .238 with 20HR and 55RBI in 248AB over 71 games. He's had a few clutch hits in the playoffs too. At the same time, Varsho had a key at-bat with the bases loaded, 1-out and a chance to walk it off and he grounded into a fielder's choice. Anthony Santander, the big free agent signing of the off-season, missed the bulk of the year with shoulder and hip issues that affected his swing. Over 54 games in the regular season, Santander batted .175 wth 6 HR and 18RBI, well below 44HR and 102RBI he hit in 2024 with the Orioles. Santander got into 5 games in the postseason before hurting his back and being removed from the ALCS roster, which effectively ended his year since that move made him ineligible for the world series. Santander batted .200 in the postseason with 2RBI. His absence was actually beneficial to George Springer, who got more reps as DH. Springer injured his oblique in game 3 of the world series, missed 2 games, came back and ripped 5 hits off over the last 2 games. He could be a key piece next year. Bo Bichette, who likely has played his last game as a Blue Jay, injured his knee sliding into home plate in a rain-delayed game in New York on September 6. He made it back for the world series and had the big 3-run HR to put the Blue Jays up by 3 in game 7. Bichette was the Blue Jays best hitter,  batting .311 with 181 hits, 18HR and 94 RBI. In his absence, Andres Gimenez covered SS and Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider and IKF handled the reps at 2B. Bichette actually played 2B upon his return in the world series. It will be interesting to see how open he is to a position change in free agency. He may get a bigger offer from teams that want him at 2B given his struggles at SS.

2.  Pitching was both a strength and a weakness. The Blue Jays need to definitely add at least one or two more starting pitchers because they were basically running out a 3.5 man rotation rotation with Max Scherzer basically missing the first 3 months of the season with a thumb issue that caused him to strain his lat in his first start of 2025 (Scherzer finished the year 5-5 with a 5.19ERA over 17 starts. Scherzer got the win in game 4 of the ALCS, pitching into the 6th inning and he threw 4.1 innings in both game 4 and 7 of the world series, taking the loss in LA after allowing 3 runs and holding the Dodgers to 1 run in the 7th game.) and an ineffective Bowden Francis had just 3 quality starts and struggled to make it through even 5 innings before he was mercifully shut down with a shoulder impingement June 17th. Francis was 2-8 with a 6.05ERA over 14 starts. There has to be concern over his health heading into 2026. This put a ton of pressure on Jose Berrios, who hurt his elbow at the end of the year and was struggling after the all-start break, likely due to the injury and fatigue, Chris Bassitt (hurt his back at the end of the season and was reduced to a bullpen role for the ALCS and world series), and Kevin Gausman to do a little more in their starts to save the bullpen. The extra workload on the bullpen led to performance issues, in particular to high leverage guys like Brendon Little, Yimi Garcia, Nick Sandlin and Hoffman. Bassitt finished the year 11-9 with a 3.96ERA in 32 apearances (31 starts). He pitched 2.2 scoreless innings in the ALCS and 6 innings, 5 appearances in the world series and just one run allowed. Gausman was 10-11 with a 3.59ERA in 32 starts in the regular season - very jekyll and hyde like where he was either very good or very bad. In the postseason, he struggled more as the playoffs wore on (fatgue?) giving up just 1 run in game 1 of the ALDS over 5.2 innings against the Yankees and lost both starts in the ALCS and World Series with the Dodgers getting to him the most. He'll be a key cog in the rotation next year. Berrios was 9-5 with a 4-17ERA over 31 appearances (30 starts). His health is also a concern, especially since he sought a second opinion on his wonky elbow. Brendon Little was a key member of the bullpen and John Schneider's first choice from the left side. He was 4-2 with a 3.03ERA in a league-leading 79 appearances in the regular season. However, he started having control issues after the all-start break and became rather unreliable. Schneider finally moving him down the pecking order to the point where he was the last pitcher out of the bullpen in the 18-inning marathon in game 3 he survived the first inning he threw in that game but gave up a no-doubter to Freddie Freeman to start the 18th inning). As a reliever, you need to throw strikes and Little wasn't doing that in the second half of the season. He'll likely have a  role in the bullpen in 2026, but I wouldn't hand it to him on a silver platter. Garcia finished an injury-riddled year 1-2 with a 3-86ERA over 22 appearances. The ankle sprain slipping near the hot tub shortly after returning off the IL the Canada Day long weekend was plain bad luck, the elbow injury that led to season ending surgery was the baseball gods being cruel. Sandlin also had a run of bad luck witk injuries and finished the year 0-2 with a 2.02 ERA over 19 appearances. Hoffman was 9-7 with 33 saves (7 blown saves) and a 4.37 ERA over 71 appearances in the regular season. He notched 2 saves in the postseason, but blew the save in game 7 of the world series with a home run given up. Hoffman gave up the most home runs by a reliever. As a team, the Blue Jays pitching staff were taken deep 191 times (8th most in the MLB) and the team ERA was 4.19, meaning the offence had to score a least 4 runs to have a chance to win. Both these trends need to change or the Blue Jays will find themselves struggling to stay out of the AL East basement.

3. Three Blue Jays who did well this season:

• George Springer - Springer should be the MLB's comeback player of the year. His career looked over heading into the regular season, coming off a career worst season where he batted just .220 with 19 HR and 56RBI. Benefiting from plenty of reps as DH, Springer hit a career best .309 with 32HR and 84 RBI over 140 regular season games. Springer regained his spot at the top of the lineup in the second half of the season and seemed to play his best when he was getting banged up when pitchers were seemingly targeting him inside and he hurt his oblique on a swing in game 3 that forced him to miss both game 4 and 5. Springer managed five hits in the final 2 games of the world series. That's hockey player tough. Baseball players get a bad rap for being a little soft when it comes to injury, but Springer fought through the discomfort and came up large. He'll be a good veteran presence in 2026 that could come up with some big hits in what is likely to be another year mostly serving as DH.
• Bo Bichette - In a contract year, Bo Bichette showed the MLB he deserves to be paid handsomly and not much lower than the $500 million deal Vlad got. Bichette led the team in batting average (.311), hits (181) and RBI (94). He very nearly won the world series for the Blue Jays with a huge 3-run HR, but unfortunately the bullpen was unable to hold the lead. How much Bichette gets in the off-season will be largely dependent on which position he wants to play. His inability to prevent runs will lower his value but he'll likely get a bit more if he's ok playing 2B vs. him wanting to go back to SS. Trying to re-sign him has to be the top priority for the Blue Jays.
• Jeff Hoffman - Hoffman had a year where he was great and not great. He is here as a player who did well because he hasd 33 saves this season and had a 9-7 record. Hoffman will be a high leverage reliever next year, but closer is up in the air
• honorable mention: Trey Yesavage - Here's a pitcher who started at the lowest tier in the minors in Dunedin and finished the year dominating against the defending world series champions. Yesavage's devastatimng splitter was just ripping apart the best hitters in the game. He struck out 11 Yankees batters game 2 of the ALDS and pitched into the 8th inning of game 5 of the world series, striking out 12 Dodgers hitters. He did benefit from the unfamiliarity factor and no doubt teams are starting to come up with a game plan on him now that there is a sample size of video. Yesavage seems like a lock to be in the 2026 rotation.

4. Three Blue Jays who disapointed

• Jeff Hoffman - The bad Hoffman blew 7 saves in the regular season and gave up the most home runs by a reliever. Even worse, Hoffman blew the save by giving up a home run to the Dodgers #9 hitter, who he had 2 strikes on. Many fans were calling for him to be removed from the closer's role towards the end of the season. There also has to be concern about his velocity dipping in September, although it did come back up after a bit of rest while awaiting the winner of the wild card series between the Yankees and Red Sox and also when the Blue Jays offence was smacking the Ysnkees pitching around. One thing to note and keep an eye on is the Orioles backed away from signing Hoffman over concerns with the MRI results on his pitching shoulder. Could that crop up as a concern after a heavy workload in 2025?
• Brandon Little - The southpaw reliever struggled with command, especially in the second half of the season, in particular with his knuckle-curve. Little isn't the hardest thrower on the team so location, location, location is more essential for him. Many fans were calling for him to be DFA'd, but Schneider kept running him back out there even though his confidence was clearly shot. It took a particular bad 8th inning in game 5 of the ALCS for Schneider to finally stop using him in high leverage situations. The only reason he got an appearance in the world series was because the game was in the 17th inning, Eric Lauer was WAY past where he should have been removed given he might be needed in a couple of days and there was no one left in the bullpen. Heck, the Blue Jays even had Justin Bieber, the starter for the next game, in the bullpen getting loose. That's how low Little had sunk in the pecking order. He definitely doesn't have a guaranteed spot in the bullpen next year.
• Davis Schneider - It's hard to pick a position player who had a bad year since the offence was largely responsible for the Blue Jays going from the basement of the AL East last year to coming within a half second hesitation by IKF at 3rd base of winning their 3rd world series title. Schneider's place on the Blue Jays has lessened and he struggled to start the year, getting demoted to AAA-ball April 17th for more playing time. He batter .234 with 11HR and  31RBI over 82 games in the regular season. Schneider saw limited action in the postseason and he struck out in his only AB in game 7 of the world series. It's difficult to see where he fits in the Blue Jays depth chart with Ernie Clement, Andres Gimenez, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes all ahead of him on the depth chart. No doubt, the Blue Jays will either re-sign Bichette or chase a replacement in free agency or the trade market.

5. Pete Walker should be counting his lucky stars that the Blue Jays came with in an eyelash of winning their 3rd world series title, becuase he would have been a likely scapegoat if the team had squandered the decent division lead they had with a couple of weeks to go in the season and flamed out in another wild card round, or if they hadn't won twice in Seattle after losing both home games to start the ALCS. Walker escaped the chopping block a couple of times - last year because an inept offence was blamed for the lost 2024 season. Blue Jays pitching has been meh the past few seasons and this year saw a troubling trend where Blue Jays pitchers were getting taken deep at a concerning rate, especially off closer Jeff Hoffman. His mound visits have been less effective with the opponent scoring more often than not after he comes out to chat with a struggling pitcher. The World series appearance and taking the Dodgers to the brink of elimination saved his job for now, but he will and should be on a short leash. If Berrios continues to struggle, Yesavage gets shelled a few times or the bullpen can't hold a lead, he'll be in the unemployment line.

6. Pitchers and and catchers are due to report to spring training in 14 weeks, but there is a strong possibility of a labor disruption. Bryce Harper infamously barred commisioner Rob Manfred from the clubhouse if he brought up the possibility of a salary cap during a visit to Philadelphia. The MLB is the only league of the big 4 without a hard cap. This has led to teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs snapping up all the best players. A hard cap would certainly bring more equity to the league and you might see less really bad teams like the Rockies and White Sox making a mockery of the league with its bad play. A big loophole that needs to change is the ability of teams to defer salary to the latter part of a contract. Next year will be the first year of robo umps, a concept that has been tested extensively in the minors and spring training this year. It will eliminate the egregiously bad strike calls by umpires who were fooled by catchers dramatically moving their glove back into the strike zone. The last time the MLB lost games to a labor dispute was 1995 and there was no world series winner in 1994

7. The big pending free agent for the Blue Jays is Bichette, who will get lots of interest from most of the league. Other pending free agents are Bassitt, IKF, Ty France, Scherzer, Seranthony Dominguez and Shane Bieber (he is largely expected to waive his player's option and become a free agent). The Blue Jays made a huge mistake in not signing Bichette to a lifetime deal the same day they inked Vlad to that 14-year $500 million deal that kicks in next year. To me, Seranthny Dominguez is a bit too erratic to trust in a high-leverage role and he struggles when entering the game witth the Blue Jays in a jam. Ty France and IKF are largely depth options and will likely be left without a contract offer. Max Scherzer is very likely joining fellow legend Clayton Kershaw in retirement. Scherzer certainly goes into the night on a brighter note. The Blue Jays will likely attempt to re-sign Bieber, but as recent Cy Young winner, he will have several suitors, including the Dodgers and Yankees who will make him an offer. Don't see him coming back to Toronto.

8. So let's look at the Blue Jays big needs this off-season: a starting pitcher, bullpen arms (lefties and righties), potentialla second baseman if Bichette leaves in free agency and more bats. Dylan Cease (8-12, 4.55ERA in 32 starts in 2025), Zac Gallen (13-15, 4.83ERA in 33 starts in 2025) and Steven Matz (did well with the Blue Jays a couple of years ago) are potential options as staring pitchers in free agency. Potential options for relief pitchers are righty Raisel Iglesias (4-6, 3.21ERA, 29 saves in 57 appearances in 2025), lefty Jose Alvarado (4-2, 3.21ERA, 7 saves over 28 appearances in 2025) and Righty Kyle Finnegan (4-4, 3.47ERA, 24 saves over 56 appearances in 56 appearances in 2025). If Bichette leaves, Andres Gimenez would likely slide over to SS. Gleyber Torres (batted .256 with 16HR and 74RBI in 145 games and 532AB) would be a good replacement to target. As far as other bats to add to the lineup, the Blue Jays should consider Cody Bellinger (targeted him in the past and he's a strong LH bat), Michael Conforto (outfield depth) and Josh Naylor (bring a Canadian bat home!)

9. A final thought to ponder and that is the future of GM Ross Atkins and President/CEO Mark Shapiro. The duo is nearing the end of their contract. It feels like the Blue Jays had the season they did in spite of the moves Atkins made in the off-season last year. Anthony Santander was a big bust and non-factor most of the year due to injury. Scherzer had an ok year. This off-season is going to be crucial and Bichette not being signed is not good. If the Blue Jays regress next year, Ed Rogers may decide the organization needs a new GM at the very least.

10. Blue Jay of the year: Vlad - earned every dime of the new contract in the postseason with 8HR, 16RBI and a strong .337 average in the postseason. Vlad also made some huge plays defensively. In the regular season, he hit .292 with 23HR and 84RBI, well-below the 2021 career numbers he had, but he played a good chunk of the 2021 home games in minor league ballparks.

Ten Random thoughts: a look back at the first half and a look ahead to the second half

 

We have hit the All-star break and your Toronto Blue Jays are in 1st place in the AL East. How good have the Blue Jays been? They have won 16 series (10 season series), swept 7 series, lost 7 series and been swept 4 times. They have 26 comeback wins, which is one more than they had all last season. They are a remarkable 32-16 at home. The Blue Jays have a winning record in every month except April. George Springer has been outstanding this season, turning back the clock when it looked like his career was almost over. Springer is batting .285 with 16HR and 53RBI. In this edition of ten random thoughts, we'll look back on the 1st half of the season and look ahead to the 2nd half. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. Every year teams will deal with injuries. The most impactful one the Blue Jays dealt with was to Max Scherzer, who was supposed to be the team's 4th starter. However, he left his first start of the season with a lat injury that arose due to a nagging thumb injury that's been impacting him for a couple of years. For two months, the Blue Jays were basically running with a 3.5 man rotation with Bowden Francis not as good as last season. Francis was eventually put on the IL with shoulder inflammation. While Scherzer is  back and pitching, his availability is guarded at best and who knows how long the thumb will last. He is struggling to throw much more than 70 pitches, which could get him 4-5 innings, depending on his efficiency.  Scherzer is 1-0 with a 4.70ERA over 5 starts this season. The bullpen was missing Erik Swanson, who missed the first 2 months of the season with a shoulder issue (he was eventually DFA'd when he couldn't get his form back. Swanson was 0-2 with a 15.19ERA in 6 appearances this season. Yimi Garcia missed 6 weeks with his own shoulder issue and went right back on the IL after a mishap with the ice bath and spraining his ankle. This will impact the Blue Jays ability to get to closer Jeff Hoffman, who the team would rather only pitch the 9th inning. Garcia is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA over 22 appearances this season. Nick Sandlin, who missed a month with a lat strain, also went right back on the IL with inflammation in his right elbow. Here's hoping he doesn't need tommy john surgery. Sandlin is 0-2 with a 2.20ERA over 19 appearances this season. The most concerning injury has to be with Ryan Burr, who missed the first 3 months of the season with fatigue in his right shoulder, injured his shoulder again against the White Sox in just his second appearance of the season. Given his injury history with his shoulder, this may well end his season and potentially put his career in jeopardy

In terms of position players, the most impactful injury would be to CF Daulton Varsho, who missed the month of the season finishing the rehab on off-season shoulder surgery. Varsho played for a month before he injured his hamstring running from first to third. In his absence, Nathan Lukes (batting .276 with 5HR and 32RBI over 70 games and 181AB), Jonatan Clase (batting .210 with 2HR and 9RBI over 34 games and 100AB) and Myles Straw (batting .246 with 1HR and 16RBI over 78 games and 171AB) have split the playing time, but Varsho is superior defensively. Varsho is batting .207 wih 8 HR and 20 RBI over 24 games and 92AB. Anthony Santander, the big free agent signing of the off-season, played through hip and shoulder injuries for a while that were clearly affecting his performance at the plate, until he was finally shut down May 30. Santander is batting .179 with 6HR and 18RBI over 50 games and 184AB His absence benefits George Springer most since it allows him to DH more often. Springer, Addison Barger (batting .261 with 13HR and 40 RBI over 72 games and 245AB), and Lukes have been getting the reps in RF. Andres Gimenez has missed time with a quad strain and currently a sprained ankle. Gimenez is batting .218 with 5HR and 23 RBI over 61 games and 211AB Leo Jimenez (batting .118 with 1HR and 1RBI over 9 games and 17AB), Ernie Clement (batting .288 with 4HR and 25RBI over 94 games and 313AB) and Davis Schneider (batting .218 with 5HR and 11RBI over 34 games and 78AB) have been filling in.

2. A big improvement over last season has been the timey offense. The Blue Jays have been getting timely hits and have 25 comeback wins, more than they had all season. The veteran bats have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting with Bo Bichette and George Springer both having comeback seasons. Bichette and Springer lead the tean in RBI with 53RBI. Springer leads the team with 16HR. Captain Kirk leads the team in batting average with a solid .303 average (among qualified players). The Blue Jays aren't exactly hitting the cover off the ball, but they are much improved in getting timely hits. I love that they are utilizing the sac bunt. It led directly to a walk-off win against the Angels and can be a very effective hitting tool. Here's hoping they keep it going and don't regress in the second half

3. Three Blue Jays who impressed in the first half

• Tyler Heineman - The Blue Jays backup catcher has been clutch at the plate, batting .329 with 2HR and 13RBI. The speed demon even managed a career high 2 stolen bases. Heineman has primarily caught Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer and will usually be the catcher in a day game after a night game. If Alejandro Kirk needs an extra day or two off down the stretch, the Blue Jays shouldn't hesitate to throw him in there behind the plate.
• Eric Lauer - The veteran lefty has provided the Blue Jays with a viable third starter after the Blue Jays were utilizing an opener and bulk inning pitcher when Max Scherzer went down with a nagging thumb injury and missed the better part of three months. This, combined with an ineffective Bowden Francis, taxed the bullpen. Lauer is 4-2 with a solid 2.78ERA over 14 appearances (8 starts). He should remain in the rotation the remainder of the season and I would give him some winter league action so his success carries over into next season.

• George Springer - Here's a veteran player who deserves votes for comeback player of the year. At the end of spring training, it looked like his career was very much on the back 9 and his time with the Blue Jays was nearing an end. Instead, he is playing like he's ten years younger, putting together his best season since 2019 when he batted .292 with 39 HR and 96 RBI for the Astros. This season, he is batting 270 with 16HR and 53RBI. Compare that to last season when the Blue Jays slugger hit just .220 with 19HR and 56RBI the whole season. Springer should be a candidate for comeback player of the year!

4. Three Blue jays who disappointed in the first half

• Richard Lovelady - Richard Loveday was so bad he went and changed his name (he asked to be called by his nickname Dicky). Loveday made the team out of spring training over Ryan Yarbrough. That turned out to be a poor decision. The soft-throwing lefty was 0-1 with an ugly 21.60ERA over 2 appearances and 1.2 innings. At least Yabrough could have been a long man, and like Lauer, he has experience as a starting pitcher
• Bowden Francis - After a solid 2024 season where he went 8-5 with a 3.30ERA over 27 appearances (13 starts). Francis had quality starts in 7 of his last 8 starts last season. He was hoping that last year's success would carry over to this season. Unfortunately that was not the case and Francis is 2-8 with a 6.08ERA over 14 starts. Francis was placed on the 15-day IL the day after his last start on May 22 with a right shoulder impingement. While trying to play through the injury could have impacted his performance, teams also likely adjusted to him after a season's worth odf video footage to find weaknesses. The main thing is to get Francis healthy first.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - The standards by which the Blue Jays franchise player is about to be judged is going to increase tenfold next year when his 14-year $500 million contract kicks in. The biggest criticisms of Vlad are that he has a tendency to make bad decisions on the base paths (he directly cost the Blue Jays the game on Thursday that would have tied the franchise win streak record of 11 games with 2 baserunning gaffes, trying to go from first to third on a pickoff throwing error and not trying to get into a rundown on a grounder hit to 1st base to allow Nathan Lukes to score). He is on pace to hit around 24 home runs and drive in 80ish runs, which would both be career low totals in a full 162 game schedule. His career high season needs to have an asterisk on it since he was playing home games in minor league stadiums for the bulk of it. Guerrero Jr. is capable of hitting 30-40 home runs, but too often hits the ball hard for a loud out. He's leading the league with 7 errors thus far this season. If Vlad wants to be paid what Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto are getting paid, he needs to start performing at their level and leading this team and being accountable when things are not going his way or the team's way.

5. To me, the pivotal moment of the season was April 25. The team entered the game a game under .500. In 2024, the Blue Jays faced the same scenario April 29, when they were at .500. They lost the game and never got to .500 again. They won on April 25, and yes, they did dip below .500 a few days later, but they swept the series in Seattle mid-May, swept the A's at the end of May and swept the Canada day week long homestand. The Blue Jays already have 27 comeback wins, 2 more than they had all season. Their home record is a sparkling 32-16, compared to a paltry 39-42 a year ago. This is a team that should challenge for the division title, and will at the very least have a wild card spot, unless things go really sideways in the second half

6. Vlad and Alejandro Kirk are going to be the Blue Jays reps at the all-star game. On merit, Kirk definitely deserves the honor (batting .303 with 7HR and 45RBI, thrown out 16 base runners). Vlad, not so much (leads the league with 7 errors, batting .277 with 12HR and 46RBI.). George Springer should be on the team but Aaron Boone obviously wasn't pleased with getting swept recently by the Blue Jays. Springer is batting .270 with 16HR and 53RBI. The selection of the starters amounts to a popular contest, sometimes, but the reserves should be considered more on merit, while also insuring every team has a rep. Springer could still be an injury replacement.

7. The next big event after the all-star break will be the trade deadline July 31 where teams will have the opportunity to add that missing piece to solidify their team. The Blue Jays biggest needs are to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a bullpen arm. Targets: Luis Severino (looked good first 4 innings Friday before things fell apart), Paul Skenes (leads NL with 2.01 ERA)  (will likely need to part with a roster player to get him), David Bednar (12 saves, 2.70ERA), Felix Bautista (18 saves, 2.41 ERA) and Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.07ERA). The Blue Jays could also move Bo Bichette at the deadline to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency

8. Blue jay team awards

• MVP: George Springer - leads team in HR (16) and RBI (53), 6th in hits (81) and 2nd in runs scored (53)
• Unsung hero - Alejandro Kirk - 3rd in hits (89), leads team with .309 batting average, 4th on team in RBI (44) and thrown out 16 base runners
• Best pitcher - Eric Lauer - 4-2 with a solid 2.78ERA over 14 appearances (8 starts)
• Best reliever - Brandon Little - 4-1, leads team with 2.08ERA; been a solid reliever from the left side
• Silver slugger - Bo Bichette - leads team in hits (108), 2nd in RBI (52), batting .281 and has 7HR
• most improved - Bichette - finally healthy after missing half the year last year with a nagging calf injury and a fractured finger, Bichette is back to being arguably the team's most consistent hitter (see above stats)
• gold glove - Nathan Lukes - just one error, has made some big plays in the outfield, especially CF in the absence of Daulton Varsho

9. MLB AWARDS

• AL MVP Aaron Judge- The Yankees slugger continues to be at or near the top of the league in most statistical categories. He's first in batting average (.355), 1st in hits (125), 1st in AL in runs scored (85), 2nd in HR (35) and 2nd in RBI (81). Cal Raleigh will certainly get some votes, but at the end of the day Judge is doing the damage with less protection behind him.
• NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani - the Japanese phenom is back to pitching after more than a year off following a second tommy john surgery September 19, 2023. In 5 starts totaling 9 innings, Ohtani has a 1.00ERA and 10 strikeouts. At the plate, he leads the NL in HR (32) and runs scored (91). His RBI production is down a bit (60) and he has a few less hits (102) but teams are starting to pitch around him, much like Barry Bonds at the height of his career. It's also possible the injury he suffered to his left shoulder sliding into 2nd base in game 1 of the world series might be impacting his performance at the plate. He's still a very big threat at the plate and very imprtant to the Dodgers fortunes
• AL Cy  Young - Garrett Crochet - the Red Sox righty is 2nd in the AL in wins (10), tied for 2nd in ERA (2.23), and is 1st in strikeouts (160). He gives his team a chance to win every 5 days
• NL CY Young - Zack Wheeler - The veteran righty is tied fot 3rd in wins (9), tied for 2nd in ERA (2.36) and leads the NL in strikeouts. Going to be a hard sell to give the Cy Young to Paul Skenes, who has lost twice as many games as he has won
• AL Rookie of the year - A'S SS Jacob Wilson - leads AL among qualified rookies in batting average (.332), hits (113), runs scored (44) and tied for 1st in RBI (42). The A's are looking like the Orioles in their progression and could be a force to be reckoned with by the time they move into their new home in Las Vegas in a couple of years
• NL Rookie of the year - Marlins 1B Eric Wagman. Wagman is 1st in hits among qualified rookies (78) , 2nd in RBI (33), tied for 1st in runs scored (33). His average is a bit lower than you would like to see (.241) and his HR numbers aren't great either (5), but he is the best in the ajority of the categories so gets the nod at the halfway point of the season.
• AL Manager of the year - John Schneider - going from worst to first in a half season means pushing the right buttons with respect to the lineup and pitching choices. Is this team flawed and could they regress in the second half? Yes and yes. They will be going into the All-star break 1st in the AL east and Schneider deserves some of the credit.
• NL Manager of the year - Skip Schumaker of the Miami Marlins - The Marlins rise in the NL East wasn't as dramatic as the Blue Jays rise in the AL East and the Marlins are still a team likely to miss the playoffs. The Marlins, currently in 3rd place in the NL East, benefited from the Braves terrible start to the season and the Braves, now that they have their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. back from a second ACL repait on his knee, could overtake Miami in the standings. Nonetheless, the Marlins could be a dangerous team in a few years since they have drafted high recently because they have been such a bad team. That will all depend on how they develop their prospects though and surrounding those prospects with some good veteran players.

10. Blue Jay of the first half - I have to give the nod to Springer. While Bo Bichette is having a comeback season himself, his off-year was due primarily to injuries that caused him to miss half the season. In the seasons prior to 2024, Bichette was arguably the Blue Jays most consistent and best hitter. Springer, on the other hand has been in decline for a few seasons now and it looked like his time with the Blue Jays might be ending. No question, making him a full-time DH has preserved his aging body and allowed him to focus on one thing, hitting. Springer is still a capable outfielder, and will likely play more in RF when he is in the field, especially when Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander return from the IL.

Ten random thoughts: Weeks 1-4 of the MLB season

 

A month into the MLB season and it has been a glass half full, glass half empty season. The Blue Jays are sitting 2nd in the AL East primarily because the pitching has been solid and the Blue Jays have been producing enough runs most nights through small ball. They got a major distraction off their backs by inking Vladimir Guerrero Jr, to a lifetime deal. Injury wise, Max Scherzer is the biggest concern with the most impact, more on that later. Power, or lack thereof, is a major issue. They continue to struggle with runners in scoring position. We'll address all of the above and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB from month one of the season.

1. As always, we start things off with the injuries and their impact on the team. The first significant injury that came to light actually emerged in spring training with 5th starter Max Scherzer. The forty year old righty was signed to a one year deal just before the season began to add a veteran presence to the rotation. The big risk in signing an aging pitcher is the likelihood of an injury occurring. Unfortunately for Scherzer and the Blue Jays, that injury happened in his first start of the season. Scherzer was hoping to throw around 80 pitches in the game, but he only made it through Innings and about 50 pitches. Throughout spring training and dating back to the 2023 season, Scherzer have been dealing with a thumb injury that had been ampering him and leading to other parts of the body being impacted. The thumb issue limited Scherzer to just 9 starts last season. He had a cortisone shot in his thumb near the knuckle. While it is encouraging that shcherzer was able to throw on l consecutive days in Houston this week, the blue jays will exercise caution with the rehab process for him. They are going to have to deal with figuring out the 5th starter for the next few weeks. Lefty Easton Lucas was tapped to replace Scherzer in the rotation. He did very well in his first two stars, but the last two starts have not gone well at all, to the point where the Blue Jays skipped the 5th starter this last turn, but they can not do that every time. Payton Schultz came in and pitched well after Lucas's last poor start. Alek Manoah and Rickey Tiederman, both recovering from Tommy John surgery, will not be ready to pitch until after the all star game.

Reliever Eric Swanson, who is recovering from ulnar nerve impingement in his pitching arm is nearing a formal rehab assignment. He threw a bullpen this week. His return will make the Blue Jays stronger at the back end of the bullpen. Righty Ryan Burr, who injured his shoulder in the spring training, is getting close to facing live hitters, which puts him a bit behind swanson in a potential return Burr was transferred to the 60 day IL on Sunday so he'll miss at least another month. Reliever Nick Sandlin, who has been dealing with a right lat strain, has not started throwing yet.

Finally, The blue jays are set to welcome back Daulton Varsho, who is set to make his season debut when the Blue Jays start their homestand tomorrow against the Red Sox. Varsho missed the first month of the season as he continued to rehab from off-season shoulder surgery. Varsho got into some spring training games as DH, but the Blue Jays did not want to risk him getting injured liding into a base.m. Also, Varsha wasn't ready to play in the field when he Blue Jays broke camp to start the regular season. Last season, Varsho batted .214 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI over 136 games. Varsho is a terrific defender so he will strengthen the Blue Bays outfield defense. The Blue Jays are going to have a tough decision to make as to who is demoted to AAA-ball. It will likely be between Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger. The Blue Jays may opt to stick with Lukes to give them an extra left-handed bat off the bench

2.  GM Ross Atkins deserves credit for managing to complete the complete the lifetime contract to star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It didn't look like the deal would happen until the end of the season, if at all. Guerrero Jr.  made it very clear that he would not negotiate once spring training opened. The self-imposed deadline came and went with no contract signed. The two sides must have been close to a deal because negotiations continued once the regular.season began. It's also possible that Guerrero Jr's slow start to the season prompted Vlad to accept what the Blue Jays, were offering for fear of not getting as much on the open market. Also, until the deal was reached, the contract status was going to continue to be a big distraction that the team did not need. The fact that the Blue Jays were able to retain one of their own drafted selections will likely help them attract better free agents. Did the Blue Jays overpay? They didn't really have much choice. Ticket sales were down and management needed to do something to entice fans to come to the ballpark. In order to live up to this massive deal, Guerrero Jr. is going to have to have the season he had in 2021, when he hit a career high 48 HR and 111RBI, albeit playing in minor league ball parks for a good chunk of the home schedule due to covid-19 restrictions in Toronto. Two home runs in a month into the season isn't going to cut it. 

3. Now that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk are both locked up long term, the next major player the Blue jays need to focus on signing is SS Bo Bichette, who is having a comeback season after a rough 2024 season that saw him miss half the season with a naked calf injury. He also had career laws in most statistical categories. Prior to last season, Bichette was the Blue Jays most consistent batter, Including leading the AL in hits in both twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Bichette hit over .300 in 3 of his first five seasons. Defensively,  he can be prone to throwing errors, but that is getting better with experience. If Guerrero Jr. is worth #500 million, Bichette should command at least that amount. It's crazy to me that the blue Jays have apparently put little effort into extending Bichette. The blue jays will also have to make decisions about their starting rotation with chris bassett's contract being up at the end of the season and kevin Gausman's expiring a year later. Bassitt has been solid this season and Gausman has also had a bounce back year. However, both pitchers are in their 30s. If Rickey Tiederman and Alek Manoah both recover from their Tommy John surgeries and pitch well in the latter part of the season, one or both may be considered for the rotation next year. Certainly where the Blue Jays are in the standings in a few months will dictate what happens at the trade deadline. 

4. Stop me if you've heard this one before. The blue jays are struggling to drive runners in scoring position. This unfortunate trend is rearing its ugly head again. The blue jays came into the season hopeful that the addition of anthony santander would some pop to the lineup. They were also hoping as change in scenery might help Andre Gimenez. Is acquired in an off season trade, Gimenez Started at the season with a hot bat, hitting three home runs in the month of march. He has yet to hit one in april. Santander Hit his third home run of the season on Sunday, one of the few highlights from an ugly double header sweep at the hands of the Yankees. The expectations for Guerrero Jr are going to be sky high.Know that he signed that mammoth contract to make him third highest player in the major leagues. Regardless, his output isn't good enough. He should have more than two home runs a month into the season. One thing Vlad has always done consistently is hit the ball hard. The trouble is more often than not, it results in an out. This week, Astros and Yankees combined to outscore the Blue Jays 33-8. The Blue Jays were a combined 4-34 with runners in scoring position. On Tuesday,  they didn't even get a single runner into scoring position. They need to be better with hitting in the clutch and hit for power. Small ball can be effective but only to a point

5. Three Blue Jays who have impressed

• Tyler Heineman - the Blue Jays backup catcher is having a solid start to the season, albeit with a smaller sample size since he is playing once or twice a week,  batting. 500 with 1HR and 5RBI. he has also done a solid job handling the pitchers.
• Jeff Hoffman - originally drafted by the Blue Jays in the 2014 MLB draft,  Jeff Hoffman inked a three year deal with the Blue Jays after the team opted to non-tender Jordan Romano, citing concerns about the health of his pitching elbow. Hoffman has been excellent with a 2-0 record, 6 saves and a 1.35ERA.
• George Springer - talk about turning back the clock.  Veteran George Springer is playing like he's 25 and entering his prime. Before Sunday's double header, Springer was batting .329 with 2HR and 12 RBI. He is no longer batting leadoff, but he has been one of the Blue Jays most reliable hitters and is still solid in the outfield.  With Daulton Varsho set to return,  Springer can now play in RF full time,  which is what the team prefers to keep his body healthy and fresh. 

6. three blue jays who have disappointed.

• Davis Schneider - The Blue Jays outfielder, who rode a hot streak and became infamous for his trademark  mustache, may have seen his 15 minutes of fame come to an end. It's rare for players drafted as late as Schneider was (28th round) to play even one game in the majors. Schneider got a full season's worth of games over parts of three seasons.  He only managed a single hit in 21 AB this season and his success against lefties eroded. He was demoted to AAA-ball on April 17.
• Richard Loveday - This was the biggest mistake the Blue Jays made for the opening day roster. The soft-throwing southpaw made two relief appearances, lost one of those games and had a brutal 21.60ERA when he was DFA'd.. if you're going to have a lower velocity,  you better be able to locate your pitches, which is something Loveday could not do. 
• Anthony Santander - the Blue Jays big off-season signing, Santander was expected to be a big power bat in the blue jays lineup. So far, he has just 3 home runs on the season and is hitting a mere .176 with 9RBI. quite frankly, he should swap places with Springer in the lineup because he is not producing enough to be the 3rd hitter in the batting order. 

7. GM Ross Atkins didn't have a great off- season, missing out on the big prize Juan Soto. He did land Santander, who certainly did his fair share of damage against the Blue Jays in Baltimore. Andres Gimenez gives the Blue Jays a solid infield defense, but he isn't expected to be a big contributer offensively. The big litmus test will be how the massive contract to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ages. The renovations to the stadium may have backfired in that it has led to fewer home runs. The outfield dimensions changed and now players have to hit it very well to get it over the higher wall in left-center. The Blue jays are definitely going through a tough stretch coming off a 1-5 road trip. At this point, they aren't going to give up on the new hitting coach, Davidp Popkins yet. I do like that the Blue jays are utilizing the sac bunt more often, but they need to take advantage when a pitcher is struggling. Case in point, the Blue Jays loaded the bases in the 1st inning of yesterday's double header and could not add to the run that already scored. If the Blue Jays have another rough week or two, I can see manager John Schneider being the fall guy. Likely they would bring in an interim manager and let the remainder of the season be a probationary period. 

8. The Blue Jays head to the West Coast and Seattle in a week and a half. If the Blue Jays fans in the crowd are noticeably diminished, it will be due to Donald Trump and his tariff/51st state threats and not how the Blue Jays are playing. 

9. Let's end things off for this random thoughts post by looking at how some of the ex- blue jays are playing.  Down in sunny LA, Teoscar Hernandez is off to a solid start with a .277 average, 8HR and 25RBI. He would be leading the Blue Jays in HR and RBI. Yusei Kikuchi is off to a rough start with an 0-4 record and a 4.31ERA. The Blue jays are set to face Kikuchi and the Angels in LA next week. Former Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is batting .140 with no home runs and 5RBI. Rays pitchers have had varying degrees of success as they get used to a new starting catcher calling the game. Former closer Jordan Romano is 0-1 with an ugly 13.50ERA and 1 save this season. Is he playing hurt?

10. Blue Jay of the month: Bo Bichette. The Blue Jays leadoff hitter is batting a solid .292 and leads the team with 13RBI. He makes things happen.  Leading of the double header yesterday,  Bichette forced a bad throw on an infield single, advanced to 3rd base on a wild pitch and scored on a sac fly.  

Ten random thoughts: a preview of the 2025 MLB season

 

With opening day 2025 around the corner, it's time to kick things off with a preview to what will be a crucial season for the Blue Jays. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette both set to hit free agency at the end of the season and Kevin Gausman  set to become a free agent after the 2026 season (Alejandro Kirk was set to become a free agent after the 2026 season as well, but the Blue Jays extended him for 5 more seasons yesterday, keeping him in a Blue Jays uniform through the 2031 season), it feels like the competitive window is quickly closing. Last season was a disappointment with the Blue Jays finishing below .500 for the first time since the 2019 season with a 74-88 record. The offence and bullpen were major issues that needed to be addressed. The Blue Jays responded by firing htting coach Guillermo Martinez and replacing him with former Twins hitting coach David Popkins. Additionally, Lou Iannotti was appointed as an assistant hitting coach, Graham Johnson will serve as bullpen coach and Sam Greene will be an assistant pitching coach. Don Mattingly will be a traditional bench coach and not an offensive coordinator. This blog post will look ahead to the season with injury concerns, key players to watch and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. The Blue Jays enter the 2025 season in good health. The biggest concern is wtth projected 5th starter Max Scherzer (2-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 9 starts in 2024) who has been dealing with a sore thumb, an issue that dates back to 2023. In the interim, the Blue Jays will likely go with Bowden Francis (8-5 with a 3.30ERA in 27 appearances (13 starts) last season) Another concern is with reliever Erik Swanson (2-2 with a 5.03ERA in 45 appearances last season), who is dealing with median nerve contraption. He was rushed back last season and his play suffered, so expect the team to be more cautious this time around. Reliever Zach Pop (2-4 with a 5.59ERA in 58 appearances last season) is experiencing some discomfort in his right elbow, hopefully it doesn't develop into season-ending tommy-john surgery.. Finally, righty Ryan Burr is recovering from right shoulder fatigue and will begin the season on the IL

The Blue Jays have several pitchers expected back mid-season from Tommy John surgery. Alek Manoah (1-2 with a 3.70ERA in 5 starts in 2024) was the first to receive tommy john surgery, June 17 last season. He took a huge step in his rehab, throwing off a mound for the first time since the surgery last week. Suffice to say, Manoah still has more to do in his rehab before he is back pitching in the majors, but it was still great to see him in the bullpen. Expect Manoah to return sometime around the all-star break, although he won't be rushed back. Another pitcher the team will be very cautious in his return from tommy john surgery is lefty prospect Rickey Tiedernann, who has dealt with numerous injuries since he was selected in the 3rd round of the 2021 MLB draft, including shoulder/biceps injuries in 2023 that limited him to 44 innings that year. Given how late in the season he had the surgery (end of July), it is doubtful he'll get into any big league games this season. If all goes well with his rehab, Tiedermann may start facing hitters in August and maybe he'll be ready to start a rehab in early September, but given his injury history and age, the team won't rush his rehab. Tiedermann is still largely expected to be a future ace in the Blue Jays rotation. Last, but not least, lefty prospect Brandon Barriera is making his way back from a combo tommy john and internal brace surgery from April 29, 2024. He may be game ready soonest, but his rehab may be complicated by the complexity of the surgery.

As far as position players are concerned, Daulton Varsho is the biggest question mark. While he got some reps at DH during spring training, he will start the season on the IL. This is a smart move to prevent further damage to his shoulder sliding into a base. The Blue Jays will also be keeping close tabs on Bo Bichette, who missed half the year in 2024 with a nagging calf injury that put him on the IL three times before a finger fracture ultimately ended his season, and catcher Alejandro Kirk, who will be handling a bigger workload behind the plate as the Blue Jays starting backstop. Expect the DH role to be a rotating position between Vlad, Bichette, Kirk and George Springer.

2. Whether he or the Blue Jays like it or not, until Vlad signs a contract, his free agent status will be a distraction this season. Vlad is the Blue Jays best player and someone every team would love in the middle of their lineup. Guerrero Jr. made it very clear that once spring training started, there would be no more contract talks until the end of the season. Could things change if Vlad struggles with the distraction and the Blue Jays are tanking? Possible, but I think it will make him want to test free agency even more because winning is going to be a factor and I am sure he is aware the Blue Jays competitive window may be closing and the cupboards are pretty bare in the minors. I think Vlad will be just fine statistically. Juan Soto did ok last year with the Yankees, hitting .288 with 41HR, 109RBI and a league leading 128 runs scored. In 2023, Shohei Ohtani hit .304, beltted 44HR and had 95RBI. I'm not going to delve into Ohtani's pitching stats since that's not a real comparison since Vlad doesn't pitch. Vlad's career year came in 2021 when he benefited from playing in minor league ballparks for half his home games due to the pandemic. Based on the past few seasons, I'd expect Vlad to hit around .300, belt 25-30HR and drive in around 100runs. Bo Bichette is good as gone as it seems like the Blue Jays are expecting to only be able to afford one of himself and Vlad and the Blue Jays haven't put any effort into signing him long-term. Maybe Vlad puts a bit of pressure on management and makes signing Bo long-term a condition of his deal. Blue Jays fans, enjoy the next 4 months because Bo and Vlad could well be traded at the deadline to avoid losing them both for nothing but some draft compensation.

3. The major change was to the offence where the Blue Jays will have a new hitting coach, David Popkins, with the hopes of generating more offense to support what's expected to be a strong rotation anchored by ace Jose Berrios, and an improved bullpen. Don Mattingly is back as a more traditional bench coach after a failed experiment as offensive coordinator, which just created a too many cooks in the kitchen scenario. Popkins should be the main voice in the room as hitting coach. Anthony Santander was an interesting signing, who will surely provide protection in the lineup for Vlad. Last season, Santander batted .235 with a career-highs  in HR (44) and RBI (102). The Blue Jays also traded for Andres Gimenez, who will provide some stability in the infield defensively and could well be a replacement for Bo Bichette if the Blue Jays los him to free agency in the off-season. Gimenez batted .252 with 9HR and 63RBI in 152 games and 583AB. Max Scherzer was another interesting signing that could prove sneaky good. There is precedence for 40 year-old pitchers to excel in the majors. Randy Johnson threw a perfect game at age 40, Roger Clemens won his last Cy Young at age 42 and Nolan Ryan was 44 when he threw his last no-hitter. Health is going to be a big factor to watch and at the moment, a sore thumb is causing concern for Scherzer. Even if he can't contribute on the field, he'll be a great mentor for the Blue Jays young pitchers like Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis. Finally, the Blue Jays will be turning to Jeff Hoffman, ex-prospect of the Blue Jays, to close out games after non-tendering Jordan Romano. The non-tendering of Romano was necessitated by concerns about his health. Hoffman was 3-3 with a 2.17ERA and 10 saves in 68 appearances last season.

4. Three key players to watch:

• Bo Bichette - Bichette is looking for a bounceback season in more ways than one. First and foremost, he will be hoping his leg woes are behind him. Bichette landed on the IL three times last season with a nagging calf injury and his season ended with a fractured finger during warm-ups. Statiscally, Bichette had his worst season since his rookie year, batting .225 with 4HR and 31RBI. Expect him to bounce back with a big year ahead of free agency.
• George Springer - The aging Blue Jays outfielder has been declining stastically since the Blue Jays inked him to a 6-year deal 4 years ago. He's still capable of making big plays in the outfield and will be platonning with Anthony Santander in the outfield. Springer will start in his customary leadoff spot to start the season, but on a short leash. The team can't afford the leadoff guy to be making an out more often than not. A good season for Springer would see him hitting closer to .250, hitting 20-25HR and driving in 70-75 runs. Being close to an automatic out won't cut it.
• Jose Berrios - The undisputed ace of the Blue Jays pitching staff, Jose Berrios could be a Blue Jay through the 2028 season, if he doesn't elect to opt out following the 2026 season. Berrios has developed into a strong starting pitcher, one of Pete Walker's best pet projects in his decade as pitching coach. Last season, Berrios was a solid 16-11 with a 3.60ERA over 32 starts (21 quality starts). The team will need him to lead by example and eat up those innings.

5. Three key series to watch

• March 27-30 vs. Baltimore Orioles - This is both the season opening and home-opening series and will be a good first test to start the season. Anthony Santander faces his old team right off the bat, and no doubt he'll be eager to have a big series to show the O's what they will be missing from their lineup. Jose Berrios makes the opening day start for the 3rd time in 4 years. Andres Gimenez makes his Blue Jays debut at 2b. Could we get a Daulton Varsho sighting at DH? He won't be ready to play in the outfield, but the Blue Jays might want his lefty bat in the lineup.
• August 8-10 @ LA Dodgers - The Blue Jays head to sunny LA for a great measuring stick series against the defending world Series champs, who appear even deeper after adding lefty Blake Snell to their rotation, They also won the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes and added solid relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. Teo reupped for 3 years and Michael Conforto will bring further depth to an already stacked outfield. Shohei Ohtani should be back to being a double threat as a DH and pitcher. He has already started pitching off a mound following a year off of pitching due to a second tommy john surgery. The Blue Jays could look vastly different if Vlad and Bo Bichette are moved for prospects ahead of pending free agency.
• September 15-18 @ Tampa Bay Rays - If all goes well this season, the Blue Jays should be in the mix for a wild card spot, making this mid-September series at the Rays temporary home at the Yankees spring training facility with Tropicana Field out of commission thanks to Hurricane Milton, a key series against the always stingy Rays, who will surely be in the wild card mix. These two sqauds face off again the following week in Toronto.

6. There are 2 rule changes coming for the 2025 MLB season. First, the infield shift rule where there must be 2 infielders on eitther side of 2nd base has been tweaked so the batter will be awarded 1st base automatically if there is an illegal defense on the play. This should benefit lefty batters who teams had used the shift against most frequently. The second rule change involves a scenario where there are runners on the corners with 2 outs and a ground ball is hit with the defending team opting for the forceout at 2nd to end the inning. Teams, in particular the Yankees, were deploying the strategy of running through the bag at 2nd base like it's 1st base where you can run past the bag. The runner would still be out for leaving the baseline, but the run would count. Now, the run won't count if replay shows the runner abandoned the baseline before the run scored

While it won't be implemented for the 2025 season, Robo umps and the ability to challenge balls and strikes was tested during spring training. Robo umps and the ability to challenge balls and strikes was used in the minor leagues last season and could be in the majors as soon as the 2026 season. Traditionalists will argue that renoving the human element of umpires calling balls and strikes is a step too far. However, a roboump system should be more accurate in the long run and strike zones will be more consistent and won't be impacted by the positioning of the home plate umpire. Also, some of the more extreme framers behind the plate, such as Alejandro Kirk, can screw up the umpires ability to accurately make the right call. My only question is whether movement of the glove will impact the laser system. That is why there needs to be a challenge system in place.

7. My regular season awards predictions:

• AL MVP - Bobby Witt Jr. - Was right behind last year's AL MVP Aaron Judge in most of the offensive statistical categories, who lost some of his protection in the lineup with Juan Soto signing with the Mets and Giancarlo Stanton's season in doubt with severe elbow injuries. Look for Witt Jr. to take the MLB by storm and dethrone the current MVP.
• NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani - the Japanese phenom is going to continue to be a dominant force at the top of a lethal looking Dodgers lineup. Ohtani created and is the only member of the 50-50 club and is showing no signs of slowing down. Oh yeah, and he'll be back on the bump this season and he's no slouch as a pitcher either.
• AL Cy Young - Jose Berrios - the Blue Jays ace is going to benefit from having veteran Max Scherzer to mentot him and he will continue to dominate in his starts, giving the Blue Jays a chance to win every 5 days. Berrios was second in the AL in wins last season (16) and had 21 qua
• NL Cy Young - Zach Wheeler - he was second in most of the pitching statistical categories behind Chris Sale. Look for him to have a huge year
• AL rookie of the year - Righty Kumer Rocker - the 3rd overal pick of the 2022 MLB entry draft, Rocker looks poised to step into the major leagues after excelling in the minors the last 2 seasons (2023 was a wipeout due to tommy john surgery). It will help having easy opponents in the Mariners and the Angels 
• NL rookie of the year - Roki Sasaki - the big international free agent of the off-season, his deadly splitter that behaves differently to right handed vs. left-handed batters is going to leave hitters baffled.  

8. Look for the Dodgers to repeat as world series champs against an upstart Guardians team that gave the Yankees fits in last year's ALCS

9. Speaking of the Yankees, they'll be allowed to have facial hair (provided its neat and cut short, so no Justin Turner beard) after they nixed their policy on no facial hair or sideburns. This is a welcome change that I'm sure the players will enjoy and embrace.

10. Finslly, let's end things with a discussion of our favorite Blue Jays opening momeents. One of mine is Tony Batista walking off the Royals in 2000. How about Shannon Stewarr finishing a triple shy of the cycle the following year. Then there was the 16 inning marathon to start the 2012 season in Cleveland. Weigh in with your favourite Blue Jays opening day moment below.

Ten Random Thoughts: A review of the 2024 season and a look ahead to the off-season.

 

Finally, we have reached the end of the 2024 season, one that could be the end of an era. The final tale  of the tape: 17 series wins (4 series sweeps), 29 series losses (swept 5 times) and 4 series splits. The Blue Jays took a big gamble that 2023 was an anomaly and the team would be better offensively after shuffling the deck with the hitting coaches, making Don Mattingly offesive coordinator and adding some assistants alongside Guillermo Martinez. The team struck out in free agency on signing Shohei Ohtani (who opted to remain in the LA area, signing with the Dodgers) and also on trading for Juan Soto. Instead, they were banking on the players having bounceback years with the additions of Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa). Unfortunately, that didn't come to fruition. Perhaps most surprisingly, Bo Bichette, the Blue Jays best and most consistent hitter, had perhaps the worst season of his careerm with career lows in most of the major statistical categories and a lost season where he only played 81 games due to a nagging calf issue. The pitching, which was masking the pitiful offense last year, regressed, both the starting pitching and the bullpen. There were some shining lights in a dim season (Bowden Francis was excellent the last 2 months of the season, including 2 no-hit bids that died in the 9th inning; Vlad had his best season since 2020, Ernie Clement was solid and Alejandro Kirk showed he can handle a bigger role behind the plate.) August 25th was a game that will go down in MLB history with Danny Jansen becoming the first player in history to play for both teams in the same game after the June 26 game was suspended in the top of the 2nd with Jansen at the plate and Jansen was subsequently traded at the deadline to the Red Sox.(Oh yeah, and Jansen batted for the Red Sox in the bottom half of the inning.) In this final random thoughts post of 2024, we'll look back at the season, changes that need to be made and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. As per usual, let's start with the injuries and the impact they had on the season. The most significant injury was the pitching elbow with Alek Manoah undergoing Tommy John surgery, closer Jordan Romano  needing surgery to relieve nerve issues and prospect pitchers Brandon Barriera and Rickey Tiederman both underwent tommy john surgery. This is going to impact the rotation going forward with both Manoah and Tiederman not expected to return until mid-season (Manoah could potentially be ready to return around the all-star break while Tiederman could potentially miss the entire 2024 season since he didn't have the surgery until the end of July). The Blue Jays are going to need another starter. Manoah finished the 2024 season 1-2 with a 3.70ERA over 5 starts. Kevin Gausman missed his first turn of the season dealing with a shoulder issue. He didn't look like himself in many of his starts, so one has to wonder if he was playing through the injury or something else was bothering him. Gausman was 12-11 with a 4.09ERA over 28 startsThere has to be concerns with Bo Bichette, who missed significant time with a calf injury and went on the IL three separate times before getting shut down for a couple of months. He definitely came back too soon on at least one of the IL stints. Oh yeah, and Bichette came back for one game and then fractured a finger during defensive drills in warm-up. Bichette is going to be a key player next season and needs to be at full health. Bichette finished the season with a .222 average with 4HR and 30 RBI over 80 games and 308AB. Injuries will happen over the course of the season and the Blue Jays need to have viable options on the bench and in the minors.

2. Pitching was a big issue all season, primarily with the bullpen unable to hold leads. It is the biggest off-season need. Tim Mayza was among the worst on the team, going 0-1 with an 8.03ERA in 35 appearances before being DFA'd and eventually trraded to the Yankees. Chad Green, who was the closer once Romano went down was solid until September when he blew three consecutive saves. At this point, Green, Romano, Genesis Cabrera and Branden Little have earned spots in the bullpen in 2025. They need to find 3-4 relievers that can be relied upon to keep the score close, tied or the Blue Jays in the lead. Management cannot assume an anomally and they shouldn't be relying on waiver claims or players that were DFA'd by other teams since there is a reason why teams dropped those players.

3. The last time the Blue Jays finished a season below .500 was the last year for the core of Russell Martin, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. That off-season saw major changes in coaching with manager John Gibbons being let go. There needs to be significant changes this off-season too. The first move should be letting Ross Atkins go and maybe Mark Shapiro too if he is unwilling to fire his friends. In terms of the coaches, Guillermo Martinez, Pete Walker, Don Mattingly and Pete Walker all need to be let go. The offence, or lack thereof, and pitching (mainly the bullpen) were the single biggest reasons why this season went south. Walker, who has been the Blue Jayss pitching coach since 2012 has done some remarkable work over the years, turning around the careers of Robbie Ray and Jose Berrios, but, the team needs a neeew voice for the pitcher. Every coach has an expiry date where their ideas  beome stale. There have been numerous occasions this year where he has gone out for a mound visit to no effect. It's interesting too that Yusei Kikuchi has improved in his brief time in Houston since their pitching coach tweaked his pitch use. Martinez should have been let go at the end of last season, but Atkins chose to increase the number of hitting coaches in the dugout to assust Martinez. That predictably failed since there were too many voices in the dugout. As for manager John Schneider, he should be given another season, but on a short leash. The Blue Jays championship windoe is quickly closing and the team needs to not just make the playoffs, but win a round or two to entice one of Vlad and Bo Bichette to sign a long-term deal. It's already going to be a tough sell with the current state of the team and the minor league system

4. Three Blue Jays who impressed this season:

• Bowden Francis - It was a tale of two seasons for Bowden Francis, who came out of spring training as the 5th starter with Alek Manoah rehabbing an injury. After three subpar starts, Francis was relegated to the bullpen, then optioned to AAA-ball for a couple of months. When he was recalled, he worked out of the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever. He made a start July 29th and pitched well, throwing into the 6th inning. He joined the rotation for good August 7th. Francis caught fire with seven quality starts in a row. He shouldn't be handed any kind of role next season since this could well be a prolonged hot streak and teams will review the videos and adjust. He'll likely be in the rotation in 2025. Francis finished the season 8-5 with a 3.30ERA in 27 appearances (13 starts)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - The first of the big three prospects (Vlad, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio) to make their MLB debut in 2019, Vlad was the team's best player. Highlights of his season include: a 23-game hit streak, a new career high in hits (199), 3rd best career total in HR (30), 2nd best career RBI total (103) and highest career batting average (.323). He also knocked in his 500th career RBI. The Blue Jays must sign him to a decade long deal before he can test the free agent market because his value is only going to go up.
• Jose Berrios - Acquired in a trade with the Twins in 2021, Berrios had his best season in a Blue Jays uniform, going 16-0 with a solid 3.38ERA over 31 starts. He pitched 6 or more innings 22 times and had 21 quality starts. He'll be the ace of the staff for the next several seasons since he is signed through the 2028 season, although he can opt out after the 2026 season. Berrios has been the teams most consistent pitcher this season and really should have an extra 2-3 wins if not for the inept offense.

5. Three Blue Jays who disappointed this season:

• Tim Mayza - Tim Mayza had a disastrous season, going 0-1 with an 8.03 ERA in 35 appearances and did not record an out in the last two appearances in a Blue Jays uniform. He was better as a Yankee, albeit after a month in the minors to work through things, going 0-1 with a 3.94ERA. A big constributing factor was his velocity being down, thereby making his pitches more hittable. One also has to wonder if there's an issue with his arm again - he missed the 2020 pandemic season due to Tommy John surgery he had in September 2019. This Blue Jays fan is rooting for his success
• Cavan Biggio - The second of the big three (Vlad, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio) to make their MLB debut in 2019, Biggio has taken a ton of criticism for his lack of offense and his ability to play multuple positions likely factored into why he was kept on the team until June 10 and subsequently traded 4 days later to the Dodgers. The emergence of Addison Barger, Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement meant that Biggio's verastility wasn't as big of a plus. Biggio hit .200 with 2HR and 9RBI over 44 games and 110AB for the Blue Jays this season. It should be noted that the Dodgers released him 2 months later, he was then picked up and traded by the Giants (without playing a game) to the Braves, his current team. It will be interesting to see where he plays in 2025.
• Bo Bichette - finally, there's Bo Bichette, the second of the big three (Vlad, Bichette and Biggio) to make their MLB debut in 2019. It was Bichette's worst and most frustrating season, both statistically and injury-wise. Going into the 2024 season, Bichette was arguably the Blue Jays best, and certainly most consistent hitter. Bichette hit .225 with 4HR and 31RBI over 81 games and 311AB. He also struggled mightilty with a calf injury that put him on the IL three times, the third stint lasting almost 2 months. The cruel baseball gods struck again and after all that hard work rehabbing the injury, Bichette saw his seaaon come to a crushing end with a fractured finger after one game. First off-season priority for Bichette will be to get back to full health. Second priority is to get himself together mentally and physically because he will be a key bat in next year's lineup.

6.  Here are some Blue Jays based awards:

• team MVP - Guerrero Jr. - besides having his best statistical season since 2021 - batting .323 with 30HR and 103RBI in 159 games and 616AB, Vlad took a leadership role, highlighted prior to a recent game where he went up to a struggling Davis Schneider and gave him some tips on his batting stance. Vlad is the top priority for players that must be signed. If the team isa unable to sign him to a long-term deal in the off-season and the team struggles, they might as well blow it up and start from scratch with fans enduring some pain for a few years.
• unsung hero - Ernie Clement - the scrappy utility man had a fine season, batting .263 with 12HR and 51RBI over 139 games and 464AB. His versatility in the infield and ability to play multiple positions will make him a useful asset going forward and should give him plenty of playing time next season.
• best pitcher -  Jose Berrios - Ever since a rough 2022 season, Berrios has been the leader of the pitching staff, giving the blue Jays a chance to win mostly every five days. He was 16-11 with a 3.60ERA over 32 starts (21 quality starts) and 22 times pitching 6 or more innings. Berrios will be a key part of the rotation for the next several years and will be one of the players the team will build around.
• best prospect - reliever Brandon Litlle, who was the Blue Jays most effective lefty out of the bullpen, going 1-2 with a 3.74ERA in 49 appearances. He's one of the relievers I would keep going forward.

    

7. Let's look at who will likely prevail in the major league awards

• AL MVP - Aaron Judge, who has the opportunity to reach 60HR for the second time in 3 season and leads the AL in most of the important statistical categories (HR, RBI, on-base% and is right behind Vlad in batting average. No question Vladdy will get some MVP votes, but Judge will win the award.
• NL MVP - the race for this award was over pretty much by the all-star break. I mean, you may never see another player like Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, who's efforts this season were amplified by the fact he is recovering from Tommy John surgery that kept him off the pitching mound all season. Ohtani has a shot at creating a 60-60 club (60HR and 60 stolen bases), although more likely it'll be a 55-55 club. Oh yeah and he also has a shot at becoming the 18th player in MLB history with 400 total bases. He must love being in a Dodgers lineup where there are other dangerous hitters. With the Angels, Ohtani was the best hitter and often was intentionally walked. Can't wait to see him do some damage in the postseason. 
• AL Cy Young - Tarik Skubal - The Tigers southpaw is a majot reason why the Tigers are going to be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Skubal was 18-3 with a solid 2.39ERA in 31 starts, 22 of them being quality starts. 
• NL Cy Young - Chris Sale, who had a comeback season after injury-riddled seasons 2020-2021 and a subpar season. It appeared that Sale's career was nearing the bottom of the 9th, but instead he was 18-3 with 2.38ERA over 29 starts (18 quality starts) and an NL-leading 225 strikeouts. He's a big reason why  the Braves are right there for a wild card spot, despite losing star Ronald Acuna Jr. to an ACL tear. The Blue Jays should kick the tires on acquiring this veteran lefty.
• AL Rookie of the year SP Luis Gil, was in the Yankees rotation due to Gerritt Cole not being ready to start the season. Gil went 15-6 with a 3.27 ERA over 28 starts (11 quality starts

• NL Rookie of the year - On a bad Padres team, Padres CF Jackson Merrill was a bright light in a dim room, batting .29 with 24HR and 89 RBI over 154 games and 547AB
• AL Manager of the year - AJ Hinch Tigers - after a decade long hiatus, Hinch and the Tigers will experience postseason action for the first time in a decade, They'll be looking to win a round (and game) for the first time since 2013.
• dishonorable mention: Paul GrifolERA ove and Grady Sizemore who are running a White Sox team that will break a modern day record for losses (are at 120 losses with one more series left)
• NL Manager of the year - Carlos Mendoza of the Mets, who are on the verge of making the playoffs after a poor season in 2023 when they had a 75-87 record despite a solid roster (at least on paper. Gibby deserves some credit for the turnaround too as the bench coach. If the Mets go far, Ross Atkins should take it as his cue to resign.

8. The playoff teams are pretty much locked in, save for the last two wild card spots, which will be settled in a Braves-Mets doubleheader with the 2 teams snagging the last 2 spots in the event of a split. If either team sweeps the double header, the Dianondbacks will be playoff bound. As far as the AL WC round goes, I got the Astros over the Tigers and the Orioles over the Royals. The World series will be the Dodgers over the Astros in 6.

9. Finally, let's look ahead at free agency and who the Blue Jays should be targeting and where their needs are. The Blue Jays have just one pending free agent, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who did a solid job in his brief time with the Blue Jays, serving as the bulk pitcher on bullpen days in September. He'll be highly coveted, but the team should make a solid offer for him. The biggest needs the Blue Jays have are a starting pitcher, 2-3 relievers, a backup catcher, an everyday 3B and maybe another outfielder in case Daulton Varsho isn't ready. The Blue Jays should target Danny Jansen (batted .205 with 9HR and 24RBI over 91 games and 278AB) or Austin Barnes (batted .264 with 1HR and 11RBI over 54 games and 140AB) to platoon with Alejandro Kirk. Righty Kyle Hendricks (4-12 with a 5.94ERA over 29 games (24 starts) would be a solid choice as an extra starter. A few relievers the team should look at are Yarbrough (5-2 with a 3.19ERA over 44 appearances), Ryne Stanek (7-3 with a 4.88ERA and 7 saves over 63 appearances and Clay Holmes (3-5 with a 3.14ERA and 30 saves over 67 appearances. For the hot corner, Alex Bregman (batted .266 with 26HR and 75RBI over 145 games and 581AB) should get a contract offer.  I'd love to see the Blue Jays bring back Teo (batted .272 with 33HR and 99RBI over 153 games and 585AB), and add Anthony Santander (batted .235 with 44HR and 102RBI and 155 games and 595AB) or Max Kepler (batted.253) with 8HR and 42RBI over 106 games and 368AB). Regardles of who is signed, the Blue Jays can't do what they did last off-season and put all their eggs in one basket. They need to be making offers to several players and have backup plans if their first choices sign elsewhere.

10. Blue Jay of the year

• Vlad, the Blue Jays present and possibly future over the next decade, had his second best year statistically and voiced his desire to remain in Toronto over the long haul. The Blue Jays need to get him to sign on the dotted line before he regrets that desire should the team fail to entice some solid free agents to come norrth of the border.