Monday, November 3, 2025

Ten Random Thoughts - a recap of the 2025 season and a look ahead to the offseason

 


The 2025 season came to a heartbreaking end in extra innings in game 7 of the world series after a stellar regular season that saw the Blue Jays completely exceed expectations, winning the AL East for the first time since 2015. They accomplished the feat in large part thanks to 49 comeback wins (second most in franchise history to the 1987 squad that had 50 comeback wins). The final tale of the tape for the regular season: 29 series wins (9 series sweeps), 20 series losses (swept 4 times) and 4 series splits. They won 19 season series (swept 5 season series), lost 8 season series (were swept in 1 season series) and they split 2 season series.  They won season series against every division rival but Baltimore. George Springer turned back the clock a decade. Here are ten random thoughts in the season review and a look ahead to the off season

1. Injuries had a big impact on the Blue Jays.  Yimi Garcia had a rough year, missing  6 weeks with shoulder injury.  He came back,  made one more appearance and injured his ankle in the treatment room slipping near the hot tub. While rehabbing Garcia encountered an elbow issue while rehabbing and had season ending surgery August 29th. His absence meant pitchers like Louis Varland, Brandon Little and Brayden Fisher were asked to pitch in higher leverage situations Garcia finished the year 1-2 with a 3.86ERA. Nick Sandlin was another reliever who had an injury riddled season. He missed the last two months of the season.  His injury likely contributed to the Blue Jays acquiring Varland and Seranthony Dominguez at the trade deadline. Sandlin missed a month with a lat strain early in the season, returned for a couple of weeks then landed back on the IL with elbow inflammathon that ended his season. Sandlin finished the year with an 0-2 record and a 2.20 ERA over 19 appearances. The rotation was also stretched thin by injuries. Perhaps the biggest impact was the thumb injury to Max Scherzer that caused a lat strain and for him to leave his first regular season start after just 3 innings. Scherzer missed almost three months before returning to the rotation June 25th. He had games where he pitched like he was 20 years younger and other games where many pundits felt his career was all but over. He had a huge win in game 4 of the ALCS to tie the series at 2-2. The Blue Jays tried to fill his rotation spot with varying levels of success, from Easton Lucas (3-3 with a 6.60 ERA over 5 starts) to Eric Lauer (9-2 with a 3.18ERA over 18 appearances (15 starts)) and bullpen games too. Bowden Francis (2-8 with a 6.05ERA over 14 starts) had a rough season as well, eventually getting shut down with a shoulder injury. His absence and ineffectiveness, combined with Scherzer's thumb, really put a lot of pressure on Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt to go deep in their starts to save the bullpen. Berrios (9-5 with a 4.10ERA over 30 starts) was placed on the IL with right-elbow inflammation and ran out of time to make it back by the world series. He, along with Chris Bassitt, who missed the ALDS with a shoulder issue, forced the Blue Jays to punch their ticket to the ALCS via a bullpen game. Bassitt finished the year 11-9 with a 3.96ERA over 31 starts). He did a solid job in a relief role too

As far as position player injuries go, not sure who had the tougher season: Daulton Varsho or Anthony Santander. Varsho missed the first month completing rehab from off-season shoulder surgery, played a month then missed 2 more months with a hamstring strain. Varsho's defense is one of the best in the league so that was missed. Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw and George Springer were in CF in his absence. Varsho batted .238 with 20HR and 55RBI in 248AB over 71 games. He's had a few clutch hits in the playoffs too. At the same time, Varsho had a key at-bat with the bases loaded, 1-out and a chance to walk it off and he grounded into a fielder's choice. Anthony Santander, the big free agent signing of the off-season, missed the bulk of the year with shoulder and hip issues that affected his swing. Over 54 games in the regular season, Santander batted .175 wth 6 HR and 18RBI, well below 44HR and 102RBI he hit in 2024 with the Orioles. Santander got into 5 games in the postseason before hurting his back and being removed from the ALCS roster, which effectively ended his year since that move made him ineligible for the world series. Santander batted .200 in the postseason with 2RBI. His absence was actually beneficial to George Springer, who got more reps as DH. Springer injured his oblique in game 3 of the world series, missed 2 games, came back and ripped 5 hits off over the last 2 games. He could be a key piece next year. Bo Bichette, who likely has played his last game as a Blue Jay, injured his knee sliding into home plate in a rain-delayed game in New York on September 6. He made it back for the world series and had the big 3-run HR to put the Blue Jays up by 3 in game 7. Bichette was the Blue Jays best hitter,  batting .311 with 181 hits, 18HR and 94 RBI. In his absence, Andres Gimenez covered SS and Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider and IKF handled the reps at 2B. Bichette actually played 2B upon his return in the world series. It will be interesting to see how open he is to a position change in free agency. He may get a bigger offer from teams that want him at 2B given his struggles at SS.

2.  Pitching was both a strength and a weakness. The Blue Jays need to definitely add at least one or two more starting pitchers because they were basically running out a 3.5 man rotation rotation with Max Scherzer basically missing the first 3 months of the season with a thumb issue that caused him to strain his lat in his first start of 2025 (Scherzer finished the year 5-5 with a 5.19ERA over 17 starts. Scherzer got the win in game 4 of the ALCS, pitching into the 6th inning and he threw 4.1 innings in both game 4 and 7 of the world series, taking the loss in LA after allowing 3 runs and holding the Dodgers to 1 run in the 7th game.) and an ineffective Bowden Francis had just 3 quality starts and struggled to make it through even 5 innings before he was mercifully shut down with a shoulder impingement June 17th. Francis was 2-8 with a 6.05ERA over 14 starts. There has to be concern over his health heading into 2026. This put a ton of pressure on Jose Berrios, who hurt his elbow at the end of the year and was struggling after the all-start break, likely due to the injury and fatigue, Chris Bassitt (hurt his back at the end of the season and was reduced to a bullpen role for the ALCS and world series), and Kevin Gausman to do a little more in their starts to save the bullpen. The extra workload on the bullpen led to performance issues, in particular to high leverage guys like Brendon Little, Yimi Garcia, Nick Sandlin and Hoffman. Bassitt finished the year 11-9 with a 3.96ERA in 32 apearances (31 starts). He pitched 2.2 scoreless innings in the ALCS and 6 innings, 5 appearances in the world series and just one run allowed. Gausman was 10-11 with a 3.59ERA in 32 starts in the regular season - very jekyll and hyde like where he was either very good or very bad. In the postseason, he struggled more as the playoffs wore on (fatgue?) giving up just 1 run in game 1 of the ALDS over 5.2 innings against the Yankees and lost both starts in the ALCS and World Series with the Dodgers getting to him the most. He'll be a key cog in the rotation next year. Berrios was 9-5 with a 4-17ERA over 31 appearances (30 starts). His health is also a concern, especially since he sought a second opinion on his wonky elbow. Brendon Little was a key member of the bullpen and John Schneider's first choice from the left side. He was 4-2 with a 3.03ERA in a league-leading 79 appearances in the regular season. However, he started having control issues after the all-start break and became rather unreliable. Schneider finally moving him down the pecking order to the point where he was the last pitcher out of the bullpen in the 18-inning marathon in game 3 he survived the first inning he threw in that game but gave up a no-doubter to Freddie Freeman to start the 18th inning). As a reliever, you need to throw strikes and Little wasn't doing that in the second half of the season. He'll likely have a  role in the bullpen in 2026, but I wouldn't hand it to him on a silver platter. Garcia finished an injury-riddled year 1-2 with a 3-86ERA over 22 appearances. The ankle sprain slipping near the hot tub shortly after returning off the IL the Canada Day long weekend was plain bad luck, the elbow injury that led to season ending surgery was the baseball gods being cruel. Sandlin also had a run of bad luck witk injuries and finished the year 0-2 with a 2.02 ERA over 19 appearances. Hoffman was 9-7 with 33 saves (7 blown saves) and a 4.37 ERA over 71 appearances in the regular season. He notched 2 saves in the postseason, but blew the save in game 7 of the world series with a home run given up. Hoffman gave up the most home runs by a reliever. As a team, the Blue Jays pitching staff were taken deep 191 times (8th most in the MLB) and the team ERA was 4.19, meaning the offence had to score a least 4 runs to have a chance to win. Both these trends need to change or the Blue Jays will find themselves struggling to stay out of the AL East basement.

3. Three Blue Jays who did well this season:

  • George Springer - Springer should be the MLB's comeback player of the year. His career looked over heading into the regular season, coming off a career worst season where he batted just .220 with 19 HR and 56RBI. Benefiting from plenty of reps as DH, Springer hit a career best .309 with 32HR and 84 RBI over 140 regular season games. Springer regained his spot at the top of the lineup in the second half of the season and seemed to play his best when he was getting banged up when pitchers were seemingly targeting him inside and he hurt his oblique on a swing in game 3 that forced him to miss both game 4 and 5. Springer managed five hits in the final 2 games of the world series. That's hockey player tough. Baseball players get a bad rap for being a little soft when it comes to injury, but Springer fought through the discomfort and came up large. He'll be a good veteran presence in 2026 that could come up with some big hits in what is likely to be another year mostly serving as DH.
  • Bo Bichette - In a contract year, Bo Bichette showed the MLB he deserves to be paid handsomly and not much lower than the $500 million deal Vlad got. Bichette led the team in batting average (.311), hits (181) and RBI (94). He very nearly won the world series for the Blue Jays with a huge 3-run HR, but unfortunately the bullpen was unable to hold the lead. How much Bichette gets in the off-season will be largely dependent on which position he wants to play. His inability to prevent runs will lower his value but he'll likely get a bit more if he's ok playing 2B vs. him wanting to go back to SS. Trying to re-sign him has to be the top priority for the Blue Jays.
  • Jeff Hoffman - Hoffman had a year where he was great and not great. He is here as a player who did well because he hasd 33 saves this season and had a 9-7 record. Hoffman will be a high leverage reliever next year, but closer is up in the air
  • honorable mention: Trey Yesavage - Here's a pitcher who started at the lowest tier in the minors in Dunedin and finished the year dominating against the defending world series champions. Yesavage's devastatimng splitter was just ripping apart the best hitters in the game. He struck out 11 Yankees batters game 2 of the ALDS and pitched into the 8th inning of game 5 of the world series, striking out 12 Dodgers hitters. He did benefit from the unfamiliarity factor and no doubt teams are starting to come up with a game plan on him now that there is a sample size of video. Yesavage seems like a lock to be in the 2026 rotation.

4. Three Blue Jays who disapointed

  • Jeff Hoffman - The bad Hoffman blew 7 saves in the regular season and gave up the most home runs by a reliever. Even worse, Hoffman blew the save by giving up a home run to the Dodgers #9 hitter, who he had 2 strikes on. Many fans were calling for him to be removed from the closer's role towards the end of the season. There also has to be concern about his velocity dipping in September, although it did come back up after a bit of rest while awaiting the winner of the wild card series between the Yankees and Red Sox and also when the Blue Jays offence was smacking the Ysnkees pitching around. One thing to note and keep an eye on is the Orioles backed away from signing Hoffman over concerns with the MRI results on his pitching shoulder. Could that crop up as a concern after a heavy workload in 2025?
  • Brandon Little - The southpaw reliever struggled with command, especially in the second half of the season, in particular with his knuckle-curve. Little isn't the hardest thrower on the team so location, location, location is more essential for him. Many fans were calling for him to be DFA'd, but Schneider kept running him back out there even though his confidence was clearly shot. It took a particular bad 8th inning in game 5 of the ALCS for Schneider to finally stop using him in high leverage situations. The only reason he got an appearance in the world series was because the game was in the 17th inning, Eric Lauer was WAY past where he should have been removed given he might be needed in a couple of days and there was no one left in the bullpen. Heck, the Blue Jays even had Justin Bieber, the starter for the next game, in the bullpen getting loose. That's how low Little had sunk in the pecking order. He definitely doesn't have a guaranteed spot in the bullpen next year.
  • Davis Schneider - It's hard to pick a position player who had a bad year since the offence was largely responsible for the Blue Jays going from the basement of the AL East last year to coming within a half second hesitation by IKF at 3rd base of winning their 3rd world series title. Schneider's place on the Blue Jays has lessened and he struggled to start the year, getting demoted to AAA-ball April 17th for more playing time. He batter .234 with 11HR and  31RBI over 82 games in the regular season. Schneider saw limited action in the postseason and he struck out in his only AB in game 7 of the world series. It's difficult to see where he fits in the Blue Jays depth chart with Ernie Clement, Andres Gimenez, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes all ahead of him on the depth chart. No doubt, the Blue Jays will either re-sign Bichette or chase a replacement in free agency or the trade market.
5. Pete Walker should be counting his lucky stars that the Blue Jays came with in an eyelash of winning their 3rd world series title, becuase he would have been a likely scapegoat if the team had squandered the decent division lead they had with a couple of weeks to go in the season and flamed out in another wild card round, or if they hadn't won twice in Seattle after losing both home games to start the ALCS. Walker escaped the chopping block a couple of times - last year because an inept offence was blamed for the lost 2024 season. Blue Jays pitching has been meh the past few seasons and this year saw a troubling trend where Blue Jays pitchers were getting taken deep at a concerning rate, especially off closer Jeff Hoffman. His mound visits have been less effective with the opponent scoring more often than not after he comes out to chat with a struggling pitcher. The World series appearance and taking the Dodgers to the brink of elimination saved his job for now, but he will and should be on a short leash. If Berrios continues to struggle, Yesavage gets shelled a few times or the bullpen can't hold a lead, he'll be in the unemployment line.

6. Pitchers and and catchers are due to report to spring training in 14 weeks, but there is a strong possibility of a labor disruption. Bryce Harper infamously barred commisioner Rob Manfred from the clubhouse if he brought up the possibility of a salary cap during a visit to Philadelphia. The MLB is the only league of the big 4 without a hard cap. This has led to teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs snapping up all the best players. A hard cap would certainly bring more equity to the league and you might see less really bad teams like the Rockies and White Sox making a mockery of the league with its bad play. A big loophole that needs to change is the ability of teams to defer salary to the latter part of a contract. Next year will be the first year of robo umps, a concept that has been tested extensively in the minors and spring training this year. It will eliminate the egregiously bad strike calls by umpires who were fooled by catchers dramatically moving their glove back into the strike zone. The last time the MLB lost games to a labor dispute was 1995 and there was no world series winner in 1994

7. The big pending free agent for the Blue Jays is Bichette, who will get lots of interest from most of the league. Other pending free agents are Bassitt, IKF, Ty France, Scherzer, Seranthony Dominguez and Shane Bieber (he is largely expected to waive his player's option and become a free agent). The Blue Jays made a huge mistake in not signing Bichette to a lifetime deal the same day they inked Vlad to that 14-year $500 million deal that kicks in next year. To me, Seranthny Dominguez is a bit too erratic to trust in a high-leverage role and he struggles when entering the game witth the Blue Jays in a jam. Ty France and IKF are largely depth options and will likely be left without a contract offer. Max Scherzer is very likely joining fellow legend Clayton Kershaw in retirement. Scherzer certainly goes into the night on a brighter note. The Blue Jays will likely attempt to re-sign Bieber, but as recent Cy Young winner, he will have several suitors, including the Dodgers and Yankees who will make him an offer. Don't see him coming back to Toronto.

8. So let's look at the Blue Jays big needs this off-season: a starting pitcher, bullpen arms (lefties and righties), potentialla second baseman if Bichette leaves in free agency and more bats. Dylan Cease (8-12, 4.55ERA in 32 starts in 2025), Zac Gallen (13-15, 4.83ERA in 33 starts in 2025) and Steven Matz (did well with the Blue Jays a couple of years ago) are potential options as staring pitchers in free agency. Potential options for relief pitchers are righty Raisel Iglesias (4-6, 3.21ERA, 29 saves in 57 appearances in 2025), lefty Jose Alvarado (4-2, 3.21ERA, 7 saves over 28 appearances in 2025) and Righty Kyle Finnegan (4-4, 3.47ERA, 24 saves over 56 appearances in 56 appearances in 2025). If Bichette leaves, Andres Gimenez would likely slide over to SS. Gleyber Torres (batted .256 with 16HR and 74RBI in 145 games and 532AB) would be a good replacement to target. As far as other bats to add to the lineup, the Blue Jays should consider Cody Bellinger (targeted him in the past and he's a strong LH bat), Michael Conforto (outfield depth) and Josh Naylor (bring a Canadian bat home!)

9. A final thought to ponder and that is the future of GM Ross Atkins and President/CEO Mark Shapiro. The duo is nearing the end of their contract. It feels like the Blue Jays had the season they did in spite of the moves Atkins made in the off-season last year. Anthony Santander was a big bust and non-factor most of the year due to injury. Scherzer had an ok year. This off-season is going to be crucial and Bichette not being signed is not good. If the Blue Jays regress next year, Ed Rogers may decide the organization needs a new GM at the very least.

10. Blue Jay of the year: Vlad - earned every dime of the new contract in the postseason with 8HR, 16RBI and a strong .337 average in the postseason. Vlad also made some huge plays defensively. In the regular season, he hit .292 with 23HR and 84RBI, well-below the 2021 career numbers he had, but he played a good chunk of the 2021 home games in minor league ballparks.