It was supposed to be a season of redemption, but sadly it has missed the mark - badly. The 2023 season ended with another wild card sweep, this time at the hands of the AL Central champs Minnesota Twins. The offence failed when it mattered most, John Schneider and the decision makers made a colossal error of judgment by removing a dealing ace Jose Berrios in the 4th inning. Predictably, the Twins got a couple of runs off reliever Yusei Kikuchi and that would be all they would need against a Blue Jays offence that struggled mightily much of the season and the playoffs to drive in runners in scoring position. The offseason saw a restructuring of the offence with Don Mattingly given the title of offensive coordinator (what are the Blue Jays playing football?) and minor league hitting coach Matt Hague promoted to the big club with most of the team: Bo, Vlad, Cavan, Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwirz (started in AAA but was promoted to the big club in June) and Ernie Clement all expected to play prominent roles in the lineup. Carlos Febles was hired to replace retiring 3rd base coach Luis Rivera. The Blue Jays tried to land the big fish in free agency, but Shohei Ohtani opted to stay in LA, joining the Dodgers after 6 seasons with the Angels, who missed the playoffs in every season. They also missed out on Juan Soto, who was traded to the Yankees. Instead, the Blue Jays banked on last season being a blip for the offence. They added veteran bats Daniel Vogelbach, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner and brought back CF Kevin Kiermaier. This was going to be an important year for the Blue Jays with their competitive window potentially closing at the end of the 2025 season when Vlad, Bo, Chris Bassitt, IKF, Chad Green, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera and Jordan Romano all set to hit free agency. Yusei Kikuchi, Turner, Danny Jansen, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards are all free agents after this season.
Alas, it was more of the same for the offence, which has been in the bottom of the league in virtually every offensive category. Heading into the Canada Day game, the Blue Jays didn't have a single batter hitting over .300 (Vlad was closest with a batting average of .390). Vlad's team leading 13HR put him tied for 37th in the MLB, tied for 22nd in the AL. Bo Bichette, consistently the Blue Jays best hitter, was batting a career low .234 with 4HR and 28RBI. Justin Turner, who had a hot April, has since cooled off. Vogelbach was DFA'd after hitting a paltry .186 with 1HR and 8RBI over 31 games and 70AB. Cavan Biggio faced the same fate a few days prior, batting .200 with 2HR and 9RBI in 44 games and 110AB. The pitching, which largely kept the Blue Jays in games last season, has not been as good and there are injury concerns with Alek Manoah done for the year with Tommy John surgery and Jordan Romano's future this season up in the air with his own elbow issues. We'll discuss all that and more as we look back at the unofficial first half of the season. Here are ten random thoughts from the 1st half of the season.
1. As per usual, we'll start with the injuries. The biggest injury was to Alek Manoah, who is done for the season after Tommy John surgery June 17. It's unfortunate how his season ended since Manoah was banking on a comeback season after a disastrous 2023 season that saw demoted to the Florida development league at one point and he ended the season of Angels outfielder Taylor Ward on a fastball to his face. The signs of injury trouble for Manoah began early in spring training when he didn't bounce back well from his first and only appearance. He missed the first month of the season and made just five starts before letting go a fateful final pitch that will see Manoah gone until the middle of the 2025 season. Manoah finished the season 1-2 with a 3.70ERA over 5 starts. Closer Jordan Romano also experienced injury issues in spring training. Romano missed the first two week of the season with a sore elbow. He was placed on the 15 day IL June 1st, 2 days after his 15th appearance of the season. Romano tried to ramp up twice in June, only to experience more soreness. He had surgery July 2nd to deal with an impinged nerve in his throwing elbow and will miss at least the next 6 weeks. Romano is 1-2 with a 6.59ERA and 8 saves in 15 appearances.
Last year's setup man Erik Swanson also experienced elbow issues in spring trainng. He came back around the same time as Romano and also struggled to find his form. Swanson was demoted to AAA-ball at the end of May and was 1-2 with a 9.22ERA in 17 appearances. Kevin Gausman also had an abbreviated spring training due to soreness in his throwing shoulder, although he made his first start of the season maybe a couple of days later than he would have. It has been an up and down season for Gausman, who has the Blue Jays only complete game of the season. He got a ton of strikeouts last season and has regressed a bit this season and not been as effective as last season. I still wonder if he is maybe playing through something. Gausman is 7-8 with a 4.50ERA over 19 starts this season. Last season, the Blue Jays largely avoided a significant injury to a position player. Danny Jansen seems to have found a solution to keeping his hands healthy, although he started the season on the IL with a broken hand from a hit by pitch. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is currently on the IL with a knee injury suffered while stretching prior to a game on the Canada day long weekend. At first, it was feared he would miss the remainder of the season, but the MRI results came back with a more encouraging result. IKF is expected to miss several weeks as he recovers from a sprained knee that will not require surgery. His injury will impact the lineup and infield significantly since he was the backup SS and played the hot corner and 2B as well. Ernie Clement will get the bulk of the games at the hot corner and SS when Bo Bichette needs a day off. Spencer Horwitz will platoon with Davis Schneider at 2B. In the next couple of weeks, pending free agents, such as Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier will be held out of the lineup if they are nursing a minor ailment or there is a trade pending.
2. There are obvious candidates who should be let go ASAP. It was a huge mistake to restructure the hitting department by adding an offensive coordinator role on top of 2 hitting assistants AND a hitting coach. The players simply have too many voices and opinions to consider when they are at bat. The Mariners also created an offensive coordinator role and got rid of it when their team struggled to hit. The Blue Jays need to eliminate the offensive coordinator role, fire Guillermo Martinez and have just one assistant coach. There's been a lot of talk that maybe the team should also remove Ipads from the dugout, but I think it can be a useful tool for players to get a quick scouting report on the pitcher just before they go to the on deck circle. The next hitting coach should be an established ex-big leaguer, such as Dante Bichette. Matt Hague should be retained as the assistant hitting coach since he's done great work in the minor leagues and the majority of the current lineup is familiar and comfortable with his wisdom.
Which brings us to manager John Schneider, who was hired after a brutal west coast swing just prior to the all-star break two years ago. That year's team squeaked into the playoffs and was swept in the wild card round by the Rays. This year's team is largely playing a lost season. There have certainly been mistakes made and likely the 2025 season will be under a new manager. Schneider should be let go and an interim manager brought in, maybe promoting Don Mattingly to the role. I don't think the interim manager should become the permanent manager. This team needs a new voice, a veteran voice from outside the organization to lead this team in what could be the last chance in this current window with Vlad, Bo Bichette Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano and IKF all set to hit free agency. Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards hit free agency after this season.
If the Blue Jays are going to clean house, Pete Walker needs to be included as well. No question Walker has worked wonders over the last decade he's been the pitching coach, turning the careers of Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios around. Hired to be the pitching coach in the 2012 offseason, Walker has been a constant and steady voice for the pitchers. However, every coach has a shelf life and Walker needs to be replaced by a new voice. The pitching has regressed from last season and there have been several occassions this season where the opposing team has scored immediately after a mound visit. The Blue Jays' pitching stats are bottom of the league. I think the team can turn to an ex-Blue Jay to replace Walker and it should be Tom Henke or Duane Ward.
3. Three Blue Jays who impressed
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Signed as a international free agent the day after Canada Day 2015 (fitting since he was born in Canada when his dad played for the Expos, Vlad Jr. has been the Blue Jays best hitter this season, leading the team in HR (13). RBI (52) and hits (102). Vlad is also 2nd on the team in batting average, hitting .295. No doubt the team will make every effort to sign Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal before he hits free agency, but he will command top dollars to re-sign. Guerrero Jr. will be the team's representative in the all-star break.
- Jose Berrios - Acquired in a trade with the Twins at the deadline in 2021 that sent prospect Simeon Woods-Richardson, Jose Berrios has emerged as the Blue Jays ace. He is one of Pete Walkers' best pet projects. Berrios has gone from a pitcher who struggled in 2022, giving up the most hits and earned runs, to a pitcher who can be relied on to give his team a chance to win most nights. There should be some concern that he has given up the most home runs and hit the most batters, but he has 12 quality starts and has pitched 7 or more innings 6 times. Berrios is going to be in the Blue Jays rotation for the next 5 seasons and likely as the ace the next couple of seasons.
- Yimi Garcia - Currently on the disabled list with a sore elbow, but expected back soon, Yimi Garcia has been the best of the bunch out of the bullpen. None of the relievers have been stellar, but Garcia has been the most reliable. He is 3-0 with a solid 2.57ERA and 5 saves in 27 appearances this season. With Romano done until at least mid-August, Garcia will be the closer for the next while, unless a team picks him up before the deadline, which is possible if Garcia returns from the IL soon and proves he is healthy.
4. Three Blue Jays who disappointed
- Tim Mayza - What a disaster of a season it was for Tim Mayza, who was DFA'd June 29th after 2 straight appearances where he couldn't retire a batter. Drafted by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2013 MLB draft, Mayza made his MLB debut 4 years later and quickly became a reliable lefty in the bullpen, taking the role of setup man. He missed the 2020 season after Tommy John surgery September 2019. He returned to the majors at the beginning of the 2021 season and was outstanding last sesason, going 3-1 with a solid 1.52 ERA and 1 save in 69 appearances. This season, he struggled with his location and his velocity was down. Mayza was 0-1 with a bloated 8.03ERA in 35 appearances. You have to wonder if he was playing through some kind of injury. No doubt the physical will be a key factor for any team that signs him. Hopefully his career is not over.
- Cavan Biggio - Drafted by the Blue Jays in the 5th round of the 2016 MLB entry draft, Biggio was the second of the big 3 minor league grads (Bo Bichette and Vlad being the others) to make their big league debut. Biggio was very much a utility player, playing mostly 2nd base, but also getting playing time in RF, 1B and 3B. Biggio certainly wasm't a player who was going to hit for average, but he had his share of big hits over the years in Toronto. This season, he batted .200 with 2HR and 9RBI over 44 games and 110AB. He was DFA'd June 7 and traded 5 days later to the Dodgers for cah considerations and a minor league pitcher. He was deemed expendable because there were other players who could play multiple positions and had more years of control.
- Bo Bichette - This is been the most shocking regression this season. Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2016 entry draft and the last of the big 3 (Vlad and Cavan Biggio being the other two) to make their 2019 debut, Bo Bichette has been the Blue Jays best hitter. He has led the team in hits 2021-2023 (and the league 2021 and 2022), batting average in 2023 (he was second on the team in batting average 2021 and 2022) and was 2nd on the team in RBI in both 2022 and 2023 behind Vlad. This season, Bichette is batting .222 with 4HR and 30RBI over 76 games and 297AB. He seems like a player not happy with the situation he is in and will almost certainly bolt in free agency next year. Bichette has been dealing with a calf strain that cost him a 10-day IL stint. The Blue Jays should be listening to trade offers on him this trade deadline and in the off-season since he will likely fetch the biggest return. It's unlikely he'll be dealt until next trade deadline since it appears the brain trust wants one last run at a championship with this core.
5. It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Blue Jays will be sellers at the trade deadline, likely dealing pending free agents such as Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards. Jansen, Kikuchi and Turner will likely fetch the biggest return, although Kikuchi's recent starts have been subpar, but a team might see a role in the bullpen for him. Garcia (due to IL stint and injury concerns) and Kiermaier (performance) are likely to remain Blue Jays after the deadline. The championship window is about to close wih Bo Bichette, Vlad, closer Jordan Romano, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green all free agents after next season. It is likely that Ross Atkins will be let go in the off season, especially if any trades made in the next month bomb. As it stands, the team is going to have a difficult time attracting decent free agents who are looking to win now.
6. The most surprising successful teams this year have been the Seattle Mariners, who are in the AL West lead and are 49-43, but their lead over the Astros is just 2 games. The Cleveland Gaurdians are also leading the AL Central and have the 2nd best record at 56-32 on the strength of the league's best bullpen. On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants, who made big free agent signings, inking Matt Chapman and Blake Snell to contracts, are 2nd last in the NL West with a 43-49 record, although they are just 3.5 games back of the 3rd wild card spot. Just ahead of them are the Arizona Diamondbacks, sporting a .500 record after 90 games after finishing as the NLCS runners up last season/
7. The MLB award winners based on the first half of the season should be as follows:
- AL MVP - Aaron Judge - leads the AL in HR (34) and RBI (85) and is 4th in batting average (.306). He's been the best hitter in the league the last 2 seasons and has a shot at over 60 home runs again.
- NL MVP - Marcell Ozuna. With Ronald Acuna Jr. done for the year with an ACL tear, Ozuna is a big part of why the Atlanta Braves are still 2nd in the AL East. He leads the NL in RBI (77) and is 2nd in HR (26) and 9th in batting average (.303). Shohei Ohtani has had a strong 1st half too, but it's difficult to award a full-time DH the league MVP award unless they dominate the stats and he hasn't done that to this point. The NL MVP is an open race and will be decided in the 2nd half.
- AL Cy Young - Seth Lugo of the KC Royals, who has an 11-4 record with a sparkling 2.48ERA and 1.09WHIP and 116 strikeouts in 20 starts. Huge reason why the Royals are within striking distance of the 3rd WC spot.
- NL Cy Young - Chris Sale of the Braves, who should be in line for comeback player of the year after struggling with injuries the past few seasons. Moving to the NL for the first time in his career, Sale has been dominant, going 13-3 with a solid 2.70ERA in 18 starts and 140 strikeouts.
- AL Rookie of the year: - Pitcher Luis Gil of the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have had injury trouble in the rotation with Gerritt Cole missing the first 2 months of the season with an elbow injury. Luis Gil has stepped up and put together a solid 10-5 record with a 3.17ERA over 19 starts, Gil has also struck out 118 batters. The down side is he has walked a league-high 49 batters.
- NL Rookie of the year: - Jackson Merrill of the Padres - he is batting a solid .278 (2nd in NL among rookies), with 12 HR (1st among rookies in NL) and 46RBI (1st among rookies in NL) in 95 games and 331AB. He's simply dominating the rookies and getting lots of at-bats since the Padres have him near the top of the order in the lineup.
- AL manager of the year - Scott Servais of the Mariners. Seattle is a team that has gone from a team that finished 3rd in the AL West last season and missed the playoffs by 2 games to a team leading the AL West, albeit with a dangerous Astros team nipping at their heals recently. The Mariners were not expected to do well this season after losing Teoscar Hernandez . Things are a bit tougher with Julio Rodriguez now hurt. If they hold off the Astros and win the division, it will be a miracle.
- NL Manager of the year - Oliver Marmol of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has taken a team that finished dead last in the NL Central to 2nd in the NL Central and in the NL wild card hunt. The Cardinals finished 2023 20 games under .500 and are currently 6 games over .500 with a 48-42 record.
8. It's time to rethink how pitchers are developed and how they train. There are too many pitchers who have been dealing with elbow injuries lately and it is hurting the game. Alek Manoah is done until 2025 after tommy john surgery a couple of weeks ago Baltimore is without lefty John Means and righty Tyler Wells, who both had TJ surgery this season. Pitchers are no longer throwing 300 innings but they are throwing harder and using different pitches like the curve ball, putting a lot of strain on their UCLs. Teams are putting inning limits on prospects, but that doesn't seem to be having much effect on the problem. Case in point, the Blue Jays top prospect Rickey Tiederman has battled ebow issues the past 2 seasons. There needs to be a big rethink on developing pitchers and it needs to start in little league. Maybe there needs to be a speed limit on how hard a pitcher can throw and that should extend from little league to the big leagues. The off-season throwing programs need to be adjusted to include mandatory rest periods before pitchers can begin throwing after the season. Time to form a committee that involves players, coaches, medical professionals and other important reps to tackle this important issue for the good of the game.
9. Finally, the MLB draft is this week. A big criticism of the current management regime is the deterioration of the minor league system and viable prospects that could be used to acquire players that are MLB-ready and could shorten any rebuild. Some intriguimg prospects currently in the system are Ernie Clement, who is batting .244 with 6HR and 23RBI in 74 games and 190AB, Davis Schneider (batting .217 with 10HR and 36RB in 86 games and 258AB), Spencer Horwitz (batting .324 with 4HR and 11RBI in 30 games and 102AB), Addison Barger (batting .150 with 0HR and 4RBI in 20 games and 60AB), and Leo Jimenez, who has made a great impression in a 8 game cup of tea, batting .364 with 1RBI). Lefty Brandon Little has probably been the most effective lefty in the bullpen. He had a couple of rough appearances so his era (4.50) is elevated but he has consistently been getting batters out. Rickey Tiederman has the potential to be an asset if he can stay healthy. It's very concerning he left a rehab start with forearm tightness recently. Hopefully the end result isn't tommy john surgery that would set his development back for a couple of years. Another concerning prosect is outfielder Orlevis Martinez, who was suspended 80 games for taking a banned substance he claimed he got from a fertility clinic. You have to know what you are putting in your body as a professional athlete. The draft is a huge week for a baseball team as it brings fresh players into the fold, who, if developed properly, can be the next stars of the game. Here's hoping the Blue Jays find a diamond in the rough this week because this team needs to fill the proverbial cupboard because right now it is empty.
10. Blue Jay of the 1st half: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's simply been the Blue Jays best hitter and the team needs to be listening to offers for him at the trade deadline. Sure, he said publicly that he wants to remain a Blue Jay for life, but what do you expect him to say? Fans better enjoy the next year or so of Vladdy being a Blue Jay because if the team is in the same position next year, Guerrero Jr. is going to fetch the biggest return in a trade.
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