ten random thoughts: midseason review

 

The 2026 MLB season is shaping up to be more similar to the 2024 season that saw the Blue Jays finish dead last in the AL East versus 2025 where they came inches from their third world series title. Injuries have had a significant impact on the results. There have also been regressions in performance - some expected since several players had career years last year. In this edition of ten random thoughts, we'll look back at the first half of the season injuries, players who impressed, those who disappointed and more. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. There is no question that injuries have had a major impact on the season. The starting rotation has taken a significant hit. Trey Yesavage started the season on the IL with a right shoulder impingement and missed the first month of the season. He's had a few rough outings and some solid starts. Yesavage is 4-4 with a 3.72ERA over 14 starts. Needs to work on his command. Shane Bieber, who returned from Tommy John surgery, also started the season on the IL after he had issues ramping up. Bieber missed the first 2 months of the season and has been hit hard in his starts. There has to be concern about te drop in velocity and ommand issues. Bieber is 0-1 with a 7.64ERA over 4 starts.  Command is a massive concern. Jose Berrios will not throw a pitch in 2026 after he tried to pitch through a stress fracture in his elbow that damaged his UCL, leading to season ending tommy john surgery.. Cody Ponce tore his ACL stumbling off the mound - season over after 2.1 innings. Alejandro Kirk fractures his thumb on his catching hand on a foul tip April 5th - missed 2 months. Then we get to Addison Barger, who managed to sprain both ankles  on a play at first base, came back and hurt his elbow on a max throw to gun down a runner at home. Nathan Lukes played through vertigo the first part of the season. The impact to the rotation and bullpen as been significant with the Blue Jays having a bullpen game every five days and for 2 weeks when Dylsn Cease went on the IL with a hamstring strain. This put significant pressure on Cease, Kevin Gausman, Eric Lauer and Max Scherzer to pitch deep into games. Alejandro Kirk's injury afforded prospect Brandon Valenzuela a great run. He outplayed Tyler Heineman and is now platooning with Kirk. Barger's injury led an opportunity for Yohendrick Pinago and Jesus Sanchez. Injuries are not the only reason the season hasn't gone as expected.

2. Perhaps the biggest impacts of the off-season were the loss of Don Mattingly, who went to the Phillies and Bo Bichette who signed with the Mets. Bichette was always going to be a big bat to replace in the lineup. He was the Blue Jays most consistennt hitter most years and that far outweighed any defensive flaws he had. Hitting right in front of his buddy Vladdy, Bichette provided that protection for Vlad in the lineup. Mattingly was a key part of the coaching staff last year and gave the players a solid voice to turn to. Bichette didn't get off to a great start in NY, drawing boos from the unhappy Mets crowd. He's slowly getting better, batting .255 with 10HR and 51RBI over 96 games and 380AB. You have to wonder if Bichette regrets chasing the money when he could have gone for the familiar option.

3. Three Blue Jays who have impressed:

• Louis Varland - Acquired in a trade deadline deal last year, Louis Varland took over the closer's role from a struggling Jeff Hoffman and converted 18 straight save opportunities. He's as automatic as you get with a reliever and has an era below 1.00
• Brandon Valenzuela - An injury to Alejandro Kirk gave the top catching prospect a 2-month trial to show his stuff. He outplayed backup Tyler Heineman, who was DFA'd and eventually traded to the Angels. Valenzuela has hit .241 with 7HR and 20RBI. He's done a good job with managing the pitchers - though he has some room for improvement on play calling.
• Kazuma Okamoto - Signed in the off-season to replace Bichette, Okamoto has turned in an all-star worthy performance with 22HR and 62RBI and is 2nd on the team with 81 hits. Okamoto has made some nice defensive plays at the hot corner too. A bright spot in a down year.

4. Three Blue Jays who have disappointed

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - It's pretty obvious that Vlad is playing through a lower back injury that is greatly affecting his swing. However, when you are making $500 million, 4HR and none at home through half the season is unacceptable. He regularly jogs to first base when he thinks he's a sure out. This team needs him to lead with his bat and play the right way to inspire his team. Guerrero Jr. did the right thing not playing in the all-star game when Ben Rice and Nick Kurtz deserved the honor more.
• Jeff Hoffman and Brendon Little - It seems Jeff Hoffman had the yips after he blew the save in game seven of the world series. He has blown saves (including the final game of the 1st half Sunday) so far this season and converted 5 saves. Hoffman has done a bit better in a lower leverage role in the 7th inning. Hoffman is 5-6 with a 4.57ERA over 42 appearances. Brendon Little has blown a further 2 saves and struggled badly with his command. He was sent down for a month and raised his already inflated ERA to 27.00 in his one appearance on a second chance against the Cubs. When you are a reliever, whether you come in for the 9th inning or the middle of the game, you better be throwing strikes and getting batters out. Neither Little nor Hoffman have been able to do that and it directly costed the team at least 6 wins.
• Eric Lauer - Here's a pitcher who plsyed a significant role in the 2025 team's success as a 5th starter and later long man out of the bullpen. Lauer started the 2026 season pencilled in as the 4th starter with injuries to Bieber, Yesavage and Berrios. Unfortunately, Lauer could not replicate what he accomplished in 2025 and wound up going 1-6 over 8 games (6 starts). Even worse, he copped an attitude about having an opener pitch in front of him when he wasn't getting the job done when he was handed the ball first. Lauer was DFA'd and traded to the Dodgers in mid-May

5. The next major point of the season is the trade deadline. At this point, the team is looking more like they will be sellers given they are mired in a slump and not showing any signs of going on the magical run they did last year that started with a Canada Day blowout of the Yankees. They could use another starter and some reliable bats. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer (will probably/should retire), Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho and Yimi Garcia are all slated to be UFA's at the end of the season.  The Blue Jays should get what they can for each of them - I can see a team taking a flyer on Springer's bat, Gausman and Varsho. Garcia, Bieber and Scherzer are all big question marks or injury risks. 

6. The real changes needed with the firing of John Schneider, Pete Walker and David Popkins shown the door won't happen until the off-season. It would be very awkward for John Schneider to be the manager of the all-star game and be out of a job technically. I've been calling for Pete Walker to be replaced for a couple of years now. He's been their voice for 13 years now and the starters aren't getting deep into games and it can be an adventure to get a lead to the 9th inning. Also, you have to wonder if the training the pitchers are doing led to some of the injuries/ineffectiveness. John Schneider was handed a new contract after nearly leading the team to their 3rd world series title. Yogi Berra was the only manager fired right after losing the world series. A major issue appears to be the culture in the locker room, this tesm doesn't feel as close to each other as last year's team did. A manager largely dictates how the clubhouse acts. The team needs a manager who will hold players accountable and playing hard every game. Popkins needs to go too because while some regression was to be expected after career years from several of the players, the amount and severity has been alarming. This is largely the same team as last year minus Bichette and Chris Bassitt. You aren't winning many games in this league scoring 1 or 2 runs. If the Blue Jays miss the playoffs all three of Schneider, Popkins and Walker need to be replaced.

7. This is the first season where the automated ball strike system (aka ABS) has been implemented in the MLB. It has been extensively tested in the minors the last few seasons, as most major rule changes are. Baseball purists will say it is taking away the human element of the game. The system is necessary because the catching game has changed to a lot more framing of pitches where catchers will pull the ball back into the strike zone. By definition, the strike zone is the width of home plate with the vertical boundaries at the batter's shoulders to just below the hollow of the kneecap. The Blue jays are near the bottom of the league overall. Teams get 2 challenges each game and an extra challenge if the game goes to extra innings and the team is out of ABS challenges The Blue Jays have been about 50-50 on ABS challenges with the catchers successfully overturning 54.1% of the 85 pitches they have challenges and the batters have a 47.7% success rate on 85 pitches that were challenged. Davis Schneider has the best success rate, successfully overturning 75% of the 11 pitches he challenged. As expected, there are more challenges in games where umpires with a bad reputation for calling balls and strikes is behind the plate. CJ Buckner, one of the worst umpires will be retiring after this season.

8. A different kind of strike is expected to impact the 2027 season with the current CBA set to expire. You csn bet the owners will be pushing hard to implement a hard salary cap. The MLB is the only major sports tean without a hard cap. Instead, the big spenders like the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Dodgers are paying luxury taxes when their payroll hits different thresholds. A hard cap would make it a lot more difficult for a team like the Dodgers to create a super team with the most expensive players. There needs to be a floor, like the NHL has, as well or the cheapest owners will money ball their roster like the A's in 2002 with cheaper players with less talent/upside. The league also has to close the major loophole where teams can defer salary in contracts. Shohei Ohtani's deal is exhibit A of why that loophole needs to close. The player's union is pushing for younger players to start receiving the big bucks sooner. The MLB. There are several past strikes that impacted games. In 1972, the players walked off the job for 1.5 weeks, winning them the right to salary arbitration. The following season, spring training was delayed over the salary arbitration clause. In 1976, the fight was over the reserve clause. Cardinals OF Curt Flood sued the league over the issue (the supreme court sided with the MLB). The reserve clause was eventually removed and free agency was born. 1981 was the first year to significantly impact regular season games with 712 games lost in the 58 day strike spanning June 12-August 9. The owners won partially with teams that lost a premium free agent being allowed to pick an unprotected player from any team and not just the signing team and restricted free agency was restricted to players with 6 or more years of MLB experience. 1985 saw a 2-dsy strike that increased the league minimum salary to $60000, an increase of $20000 from $40000. In 1990, the owners made the first attempt at a salary cap but caved early, leading to a delay to the start of the regular season with no games lost. Four years later, the 1994-95 strike wiped out the 1994 World series. The Montreal Expos were hurt most by this strike and it really started the ball rolling on their relocation to Washington a decade later. Replacement players were approved for the 1995 season. Interestingly, the Ontario labour code prevented te use of replacement players or umpires. The strike also led to the current situation with the luxury tax. It is almost certain the league will lockout the players come December 1. The question is who blinks first and will either side endure long enough to impact regular season games. I say the owners cave first and there will be some baseball next year, but maybe not the full 162 games.

9. Finally, let's do the major award leaders at the midway point of the season:

• AL MVP Yordon Alvarez Astros -In a year where Aaron Judge is dealing with an elbow injury, Yordan Alvarez is leading the AL in HR (31), RBI (70), hits (111) and is second in batting average (.318). He's doing all that playing on a bad team.
• NL MVP - Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers - he's giving his team a chance to win every 5 days with a 10-4 record and 1.62ERA and 0.76WHIP
• AL CY YOUNG - Louis Varland Blue Jays - The veteran reliever, acquired in a deadline deal laat year, has been lights out all year, converting 18 straight saves since taking over the closer role for a struggling Jeff Hoffman. He has a 3-3 record with a 1.10EERA and 0.98WHIP. Somewhere Mariano Rivera is smiling.
• NL CY YOUNG Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers - see above - dominant simply dominant
• AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kazuma Okamoto Blue Jays - Okamoto was a great signing by Ross Atkins. Okamoto leads the league  among rookies in HR (22) and  is first in the AL in RBI (62) and  second in the AL in hits (81). He could be hitting better for average (.239) but that's been a team-wide issue. Okamoto has also made some great plays at the hot corner
• NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR Foster Griffin - Nationals - The rookie lefty is 10-2 with a solid 2.77ERA over 19 starts - not bad on a team playing .500 baseball
• AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR Will Venable - White Sox - The ex-big leaguer has taken the south siders from dead last and a 100 loss season to 1st in the AL Central heading into the all-star break. They made a big early statement, sweeping the Blue Jays in Chicago the first weekend of April. They also took the season series against the defending world series champs LA Dodgers. The White Sox have already claimed the season series against one of their division rivals the KC Royals. Can they keep it going post all-star break?
• NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR  - Walt Weiss - Braves - The veteran manager has the Braves sitting first in the NL East after a subpar 76-86 record last season - good for 4th in the NL East. The challenge will be holding off a surprising Marlins team and an always challenging Phillies team.

10. Blue Jay of the 1st half - Louis Varland. He's THE reason the Blue Jays are hanging around the playoff picture. Take away those 18 saves and the Blue Jays are definite sellers at the deadline.