Ten random thoughts: a look ahead to the 2026 MLB season

 

In just three sleeps, the Blue Jays will open the 50th season in franchise history. 142 days ago, the Blue Jays came within inches of hoisting the world series trophy for the 3rd time in franchise history. Bo Bichette, now a NY Met, hit a 3-run HR that was oh so close to holding up, until closer Jeff Hoffman gave up a game tying home run to Miguel Rojas on a full count. The Blue Jays won't be taken lightly that's for sure. Time to look ahead to the 2026 season, which could be the last baseball we see for a while with the CBA set to expire. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. Let's kick things off with a look at the injuries and their impact going forward. Anothony Santander had a nightmare 2025 season, playing just 54 games in the regular season before being shut down with back and shoulder injuries. He played five games in the postseason before being shut down for good after being removed after the 5th inning of game 3 of the ALCS. Santander finished the 2025 season batting .175 with 6HR and 18RBI in just 194AB. As the Blue Jays were making their way to Duneedin, manager John Schneider announced that Santander was to undergo major shoulder surgery and would miss 5-6 months. Assuming no setbacks, Santander might be back by beginning of August Signed to a huge 5-year deal last year, the contract has aged very poorly. The Blue Jays were hopeful that Santander would add a big bat as  a DH/4th outfielder. Alas, he's spent more time on the IL and at this point, DH looks like the best position for him. 

Bowden Francis's season is over before it began as he underwent tommy john surgery the same week as Santander. Francis struggled in 2025, going 2-8 with a 6.05ERA over 14 starts before being placed on the IL with a shoulder injury that ended his season. Francis, if healthy, would have been in the mix for a spot in the Blue Jays rotation.

Former ace Jose Berrios is another pitcher who has had tough injury luck. The latest concern is a stress fracture in his pitching elbow. You don't want to mess with that with the UCL right in that area. He'll be monitored closely. Berrios was 9-5 with a 4.17ERA in 2025.  Once he's back, he'll be a key part of the rotation and will be asked to eat some innings. Here's hoping he keeps the ball in the ballpark.\

Lefty prospect Rickey Tiedermann, who missed the entire 2025 season rehabbing from July 2024 tommy john surgery, finds himself in a familiar position after experiencing soreness in his left elbow. No pun intended, but Tiedermann just can't catch a break and there is an opportunity there for him in the Blue Jays pitching fold, but he has to get healthy and prove he can stay healthy before he'll get that opportunity. The good news is the MRI came back clean - meaning he did not re-tear the UCL.

Reliever Yimi Garcia, who has also been snake bit by injuries in recent seasons, starts 2026 on the IL as he continues to work his way back from late-season elbow surgery. Garcia is going to be a key cog in the bullpen, and a potential candidate as closer on days Jeff Hoffman needs a day off and setuup man. Garcia was 1-2 with a 3.86ERA over 22 appearances in 2025.

Acquired at the trade deadline, Shane Bieber will start the season on the IL with right forearm fatigue. Bieber returned from tommy john surgery and made some key starts for the Blue Jays down the stretch. He opted to take the player option to give him a full season to showcase his talents before testing free agency. Bieber was 4-2 with a 3.57ERA over 7 starts in the regular season. He took the loss in game 7 of the world series.

Finally, phenom Trey Yesavage, who rocketed up the depth charts, starting at the single A level in Vancouver before humbling the mighty Dodgers lineup in the world series, will get a delayed start to his 2026 season as he deals with a shoulder impingement. Yesavage is likely going to continue to enjoy success since he's still relatively unknown. Eventually batters will adapt to his pitches, but the video on him is still relatively limited.

In a nutshell, the Blue Jays will start with a rotation anchored by ace Kevin Gausman, free agent signing Dylan Cease (8-12 with a 4.55ERA in 32 starts in 2025), lefty Eric Lauer (9-2 with a 3.18ERA in 28 games, 15 starts in 2025), newcomer Cody Ponce, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2021 and Max Scherzer, who inked a one year deal a few weeks ago when the Blue Jays realized they needed some depth in the rotation with injuries to pitchers (Scherzer was 5-5 with a 5.19ERA over 17 starts last season). Scherzer himself has injury concerns with a thumb injury that hampered him last season, but appears ok for the moment. Here's hoping no more injuries occur!

2. At long last, the MLB is implementing automatic balls and strikes, which will limit the catchers ability to steal a strike by dramatically pulling the ball back into the strike zone. Batters will no longer be able to crouch to make the strike zone smaller. The system was tested in the minors the last couple of seasons and in spring training last year. Teams will get 2 challenges per game, which must be initiated by the batter, catcher or pitcher by tapping their head. Challenges are retained if successful and teams get an extra challenge in extra innings if they are out of challenges. The Dominican Republic certainly wishes they could have benefited from the system after being eliminated in the semi-finals of the recent world baseball classic on a strikeout that appeared low. Expect a lot of early challenges, especially when there's an umpire behind the plate that historically doesn't have a great reputation of accuracy. Another rule coming in for this season limits base runners who try to draw an obstruction call, like Josh Naylor did in the ALCS game 5. Bottom line, players need to give fielders room to make the play. Violators will be called out and runners return to their original base. Finally, the MLB is going to be enforcing, through warnings and evictions, that base coaches remain in their boxes. This will mean that decisions will have to be made quicker to send runners home on base hits.

Three Blue Jays to watch:

• Jeff Hoffman - The Blue Jays closer will be looking for redemption after giving up the game-tying home run in game seven of the world series. He had a solid regular season with 33 saves, but gave up 33 home runs (the most by a reliever) and blew 7 saves in the regular season and the most important save in the post season. Load management is going to be important to keep Hoffman sharp and healthy. His velocity was dropping in the latter half of the season and his second half was worse as a result. It would be good if newcomer Tyler Rogers or Louis Varland would emerge as a viable closer option so the Blue Jays could reduce Hoffman's workload.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - With the free agency departure of Bo Bichette to the NY Mets, this has become Vlad's team. Guerrero Jr. will be under pressure to replicate his career 2021 season, that needs to have an asterisk next to it since a good chunk was played in a minor league ballpark due to the COVID  restrictions in Toronto, when he batted .311 with 48HR (best in the AL), 111RBI and led the league in runs scored (123), on-base% (.401), slugging% (.601), on-base +  slugging% (1.002) and total bases (363). He won't have the same protection that Bichette provided. 
• Kazuma Okamoto - The Japanese phenom provides the Blue Jays with some stability at the hot corner. He's made some nice plays in spring training and hit .333. Last season, Okamoto hit .322 with 15 HR and 51RBI over 77 games. He'll start hitting lower in the lineup and could move up based on performance.

4. Three series to watch

• April 6-8 vs. LA Dodgers - The Blue Jays get an early rematch against the back to back champs LA Dodgers, who added Kyle Tucker to an already dangerous lineup. The Dodgers are largely the same team as last year and stand a strong chance to three peat. This will be a good early test for the Blue Jays
• July 3-5 @ Seattle Mariners - The Mariners will get their ALCS rematch on the 4th of July long weekend. Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez and Canadian Josh Naylor will be the bats to watch out for in this lineup. The Mariners are a team full of players entering their primes. The rematch in Toronto is the last weekend of August
• June 29-July 1 vs. NY Mets - The same week of the ALCS rematch, Bo Bichette makes his return to Toronto. If the Blue Jays are struggling offensively, Ross Atkins might want to stay away from the Roger's center that week because any boos that come with the tribute video will be directed at Atkins for not getting Bichette signed. As much as Bichette was criticized for his defense, he was arguably the Blue Jays most consistent hitter, batting over .300 in 4 of his 7 seasons in Toronto and leading the league in hits in both 2021 and 2022 with 191 and 189 hits respectively. Oddly, the Mets want him to play the hot corner, a position he's never played either in the majors or minors. Bichette has been an everyday shortstop, but played the ALCS and world series at 2nd base to protect a knee injury from sliding into home plate late in the regular season. Here's hoping Bichette stays healthy until the series so he can play in it.

5. Legendary Blue Jays broadcaster Buck Martinez has decided to retire after 2 years of battling and beating cancer twice. Martinez served as primary catcher to legandary Blue Jays pitcher Dave Stieb in 1982 and 1983. His playing career was effectively ended July 9 1985 on an home plate collision where he managed to help turn and complete a rare 9-2-7-2 double play while sprawled on the Kingdome turf with a broken leg. Over 6 seasons as a Blue Jays, Martinez batted .222 with 35HR and 154RBI. After his playing career was done, Buck turned to broadcating where he was the color analyst on TSN until 2001 when he became the Blue Jays manager for 2 seasons. The Blue Jays were a combined 100-115 in those 2 seasons. A decade later, Martinez returned to the Blue Jays broadcast booth a decade later as play-by-play man for Sportsnet. Many of the legendary broadcasters developed their own catch phrases. For instance, Hawk Harrelson of the White Sox would yell "you can put it on the boaaard! Yes!" on home runs and "He gone!" for a strikeout. The Yankees Michael Kay yells "See ya!" on home runs. For MAartinez, his iconic catchphrase was "swing and a drive" Martinez did a commendable job of educating the average fan on baseball and especially the catcher position. Martinez will be honored and be inducted as the first member of hall of excellence on August 29. It would be neat if Martinez started his own podcast like Don Cherry has done, but I suspect Martinez is done with analyzing baseball and will want to complete his bucket list while his health allows him to.

6. As the Blue Jays celebrate their 50th season, they will likely get a few of the alumni to throw out the 1st pitch. A few suggestions of who should get the honor: George Bell (1st to win MVP award as a Blue Jay), Pat Borders (1992 world series MVP), Bobby Cox (managed the Blue Jays to their 1st playoff appearance), Carlos Delgado (had 4-home run game), Jerry Johnson (recorded 1st win in franchise history), Josh Johnson (2015 MVP), Doug Ault (hit first home run in franchise history), and Pat Hentgen 1996 Cy Young)

7. As mentioned in the preamble, fans better enjoy this season because it is very likely that baseball is headed towards a lockout in the offseason. The big issue is going to be about a salary cap, vehemently opposed by the players.The MLB is the only league without a hard salary cap. Instead, their is a luxury tax applied, something big spenders like the Dodgers scoff at. Even if the players manage to avoid a salary cap, the loophole of deferring contracts must be closed. Without it, Ohtani would likely be in Toronto and not LA and the Dodgers would not have as many of the best players they are able to buy every season. It woulsd also make the teams operating on smaller payrolls more competitive since some of the better free agents would be available to sign at a cheaper price. The players are also opposing changes to the revenue sharing agreement with the MLB proposing a higher dependency on gate ticket sales and local revenue. The MLB is also seeking a draft on international talent. The players are seeking to have prospects paid at younger ages and they want more control of on-field rules. 

8. One way the MLB can sweeten the pot is by allowing active MLB players to participae in the 2028 olympics. There is a huge logistical issue that would need to be resolved. There is really no way to make up 2 weeks of missed games should the MLB opt to shut down the season during the 2-week window. Unlike the NHL, which is currently playing a condenced schedule with teams playing pretty much every other day, the MLB plays every day. You can't really extend the season much more  becuse the weather will start getting bad in some of the  MLB cities and even snow could be a factor if, say the Yankees were to make the world series. Also, players need time to rest and build back up, especially those who played in the postseason. Maybe the MLB tries it for 2028 since the games ar being held in Los Angeles

9. As part of the celebrations of the 50th season, the Blue Jays should honor a team from each decade every month, I would do it in chronological order: April: 1977 team (inaugural team), May: 1985 team (1st team to make the playoffs), June: 1992 team (first team to win the world series) August: 2003 team (Roy Halladay Cy Young year) and September: 2015 team (made it to the ALCS; Josh Donaldson MVP year).

10. Typically I put the Blue Jay of the week/month in this spot, but since the season hasn't started yet, I'm going with my projected Blue Jay of the year: Vlad. Guerrero Jr. is going to be more motivated than ever to dominate the league having gotten so close to hoisting the world series trophy 5 months ago. Also, this is effectively his team now that Bo Bichette has left for the Mets in free agency. He knows that he can put up bigger power numbers like hs dad used to do.