Thursday, August 30, 2018

Non-Game Thread for an Offday: TJ's All-Stars and Awards for the 1987 Season


Oh what might have been....

Everything was going very well for the Blue Jays in 1987. They were extremely competitive for the AL East crown throughout the season, as they held one of the top three spots in the division for all but five days, and all of those days came between April 12th and April 19th, which, of course, is the most volatile period of the year. They were never more than 6.5 games out of first, which sounds like a lot, but remember how quickly deficits can be erased in baseball with a good hot streak, and how quickly leads can disappear with a horrible, ill-timed swoon.

They had survived a 13-0, 17-1, and 20-3 start by the Milwaukee Brewers, who were never in first after May 13th, but put up one helluva fight thanks to an 18-11 August, and a 20-9 September. The Yankees grabbed the lead twice in 1987, from mid-May through the first week of June, and from late June through the first week of August, but they faded down the stretch thanks to an 11-17 August, followed by a 13-14 September. It was a four team race, as the Red Sox, Orioles, and Clevelands were never really in it.

That leaves the Detroit Tigers. For the younger fans reading this, believe it or not, the strongest rivalry in Blue Jays' history was with the Tigers from the time the Blue Jays became a good team in 1983 through 1997. Detroit moved to the AL Central in 1998, with the arrival of the Devil Rays, and that pretty much took the juice out of the rivalry. It's still sort of there, but it loses something when the two teams are not in the same division. Maybe one day baseball will figure it out. Ah, who am I kidding?

The Tigers got off to an abysmal start and found themselves in 6th place, 9.5 games out, with an 11-19 record on May 11th, but from that point forward they would go 81-40 to get within 0.5 games of the front running Blue Jays and set up a huge 4-game series with the Blue Jays in Toronto from Thursday September 24th through Sunday September 27th. Jack Morris opposed Mike Flanagan in the series opener. After two scoreless innings, Bill Madlock led off the top of the third with a single. Kirk Gibson followed with a ground ball to second. Nelson Liriano fed Tony Fernandez for the out at second.

And then, it happened...One of the most controversial plays in Blue Jays' history. Madlock basically rollblocked Fernandez, who landed with all his weight on his right elbow squarely on a wooden strip in the seam that separated turf from dirt. The result was a broken right elbow, and Fernandez was immediately lost for the season. So was it an illegal slide? Remember that in those days the runner (allegedly) had to be able to touch second with some part of his body. Was Madlock able to touch second? I'll let the picture do the talking...


Somehow I don't think he could've touched second. How about you? Want further evidence? Ok...


"It wasn't the slide that hurt him. It was the wood around second base, and I had nothing to do with that." Um...Bill...You practically chased him into the outfield to break up the double play. Why do you think his elbow came down on the wood?...Hmmm?...Yes I hold baseball grudges, even over a thirty plus year period. It was a dirty, illegal slide then, and would be a completely illegal slide now, which would not be worth engaging in (except to hurt the infielder) as the double play would automatically be counted. Regardless of the legality of the slide, the Blue Jays had lost one of their best players for the year, and it hurt a lot.

The Tigers wound up giving Morris a 2-0 lead in the top of the third, and in the bottom half, he would go about his usual "pitching to the score with a lead" routine and give up four runs on a 2-run single by Ernie Whitt, an RBI double by Rance Mulliniks, and a wild pitch to score Whitt with the fourth run with Fred McGriff at the plate. Where did this "pitching to the score" narrative with Morris begin? He was one of the fiercest competitors I've ever seen. I would imagine he would never want to give up a run...Like ever. Ugh.

The Blue Jays held on to the lead with Tom Henke picking up the save in a 4-3 win. They would win the next two games 3-2, and 10-9, in walkoff fashion with ninth inning three run rallies. Friday's game ended on an error by Lou Whitaker, and Saturday's on a three run triple by late season acquisition Juan Beniquez. The Jays were up by 3.5 games with seven to play. Things looked really good despite the loss of Fernandez.

Then, Sunday's game happened. Tom Henke pitched the eighth with a 1-0 lead, and retired the side in order. It was still 1-0 when Kirk Gibson led off with a solo homerun off Henke in the ninth to tie it at one. Yes, that Kirk Gibson. He seemed to always come through in big moments. 1988 would be the biggest of his career, but we're talking about 1987 at the moment. The teams exchanged runs in the 11th, and Gibson would deliver again in the 13th with a go ahead, and ultimately game winning, RBI single off Jose Nunez in a 3-2 loss. If you're counting, that's now four one run games in a row. Also, the lead could've been 4.5 games with six to play, but it was now down to 2.5.

The next six games were the most deflating six games I've ever witnessed as a Jays' fan. The Blue Jays went to Milwaukee and lost 6-4, 5-3, and 5-2. In the middle game, they suffered their second devastating injury as Ernie Whitt tried to break up a double play against second baseman Paul Molitor. The diagnosis: two cracked ribs. Out for the rest of the season. He was the second important up the middle position player lost for the season in five days on an attempt to break up a double play. The next time you hear a Blue Jays' fan whining about the new rules on slides at second base on double plays, please do me a favour and remind them of the pain of 1987.

The sweep set up another showdown with Detroit in the Motor City to finish off the season. Amazingly, the Jays still held a one game lead over the Tigers heading into the series. Former Blue Jay hero Doyle Alexander bent but did not break in game one on Friday night in a 4-3 Tiger win against Jim Clancy. The two teams were now tied for the AL East lead. Game two saw Jack Morris against Mike Flanagan. The Tigers walked it off 3-2 in the 12th on an RBI single by Alan Trammell, after Flanagan had given everything he had over 11.0 innings of pitching.

So, it all came down to Sunday with the Jays now trailing by one game. Soft tossing lefty Frank Tanana took on Jimmy Key with the season on the line. Larry Herndon hit a one out solo blast off Key in the bottom of the second. No problem. It's just one run with 21 outs left to come back. We'll find a way. Wrong. I'll never forget the painful, empty feeling when Garth Iorg grounded back to the mound to end the game, and the Tigers rushed onto the field in celebration following a 1-0 win. It had been a helluva seven game battle with the Tigers, with all seven games being decided by one run.

Baseball can range from exhilirating, as it had been eight days earlier on Beniquez' game winning triple, to soul crushing, as it was on that final day of the season. From the top of the mountain to the pit of despair in eight short days. One of the best teams in Blue Jays' history had come so close to the postseason dance, and fallen agonizingly short.

Can we move on now before I break my keyboard? As always, thanks to Baseball-Reference for filling in the many memory gaps. I've said it before, but it bears repeating. That is a fabulous website. So is fangraphs, which also aided with stats for the analysis that follows.


          All-Stars:

          AL:

          Starting Pitchers:

          Roger Clemens, BOS
          Frank Viola, MIN
          Teddy Higuera, MIL
          Jimmy Key, TOR
          Bret Saberhagen, KCR
          Mark Langston, SEA

          Relief Pitchers:

          Tom Henke, TOR
          Dennis Eckersley, OAK
          Mike Henneman, DET
          Dan Plesac, MIL

          Position Player Starters:

     C: Matt Nokes, DET
   1B: Mark McGwire, OAK
   2B: Paul Molitor, MIL
   3B: Wade Boggs, BOS
   SS: Alan Trammell, DET
   OF: George Bell, TOR
   OF: Devon White, CAL
   OF: Dwight Evans, BOS

          Position Player Reserves:

     C: Terry Steinbach, OAK
   1B: Don Mattingly, NYY
   1B: Darrell Evans, DET
   2B: Willie Randolph, NYY
   3B: Kevin Seitzer, KCR
   3B: Carney Lansford, OAK
   SS: Tony Fernandez, TOR
   OF: Rickey Henderson, NYY
   OF: Jesse Barfield, TOR
   OF: Kirk Gibson, DET

          Unrepresented Team(s):

 BAL: Eddie Murray, 1B (removing Darrell Evans)
 CHW: Ivan Calderon, OF (removing Gibson)
 CLE: Brook Jacoby, 3B (removing Lansford)
 TEX: Pete O'Brien, 1B (removing Mattingly)


          NL:

          Starting Pitchers:

          Nolan Ryan, HOU
          Mike Scott, HOU
          Bob Welch, LAD
          Orel Hershiser, LAD
          Rick Reuschel, PIT/SFG
          Rick Sutcliffe, CHC

          Relief Pitchers:

          Tim Burke, MON
          Andy McGaffigan, MON
          Todd Worrell, STL
          Dave Smith, HOU

          Position Player Starters:

     C: Benito Santiago, SDP
   1B: Jack Clark, STL
   2B: Randy Ready, SDP
   3B: Mike Schmidt, PHI
   SS: Ozzie Smith, STL
   OF: Tony Gwynn, SDP
   OF: Eric Davis, CIN
   OF: Dale Murphy, ATL

          Position Player Reserves:

     C: Bob Brenly, SFG
   1B: Will Clark, SFG
   2B: Bill Doran, HOU
   3B: Tim Wallach, MON
   SS: Howard Johnson, NYM
   OF: Tim Raines, MON
   OF: Darryl Strawberry, NYM
   OF: Barry Bonds, PIT
   OF: Andy Van Slyke, PIT
   OF: Pedro Guerrero, LAD

          Unrepresented Team(s):

          none

One exclusion that I regret in the NL is Cincinnati Reds' outfielder Kal Daniels. He deserved to be there, but was one of the final cuts. What's the biggest reason for my regret? Strangely enough, his full name. Say it with me now: Kalvoski Daniels. Love it.

It was a bumper crop for the Canadian teams, and both of them played really well to earn it. Though neither team went to the postseason, the Blue Jays won 96 games, while the Expos won 91. Any time you win 90+ games in a season, it has to be considered a success, even if the breaks don't go your way regarding postseason inclusion. In my eyes Jimmy Key, George Bell, Tony Fernandez, Jesse Barfield, and Tom Henke deserved the nod for the Blue Jays, while Tim Raines, Tim Wallach, Tim Burke, and Andy McGaffigan would've been deserving representatives for Nos Amours. Five and four players on a 28-man roster representing the best your league has to offer is an excellent showing for both squads.

This time around I had quite a few players playing positions that were not their primary position. However they all started at the positions they were moved to. Paul Molitor started 58 games at DH, 40 at 3B, and 18 at 2B, so I moved him to 2B due to the lack of quality depth at the position. Dwight Evans started 77 games at 1B, 71 in RF, and 4 at DH so moving him to the outfield was easy to justify. In the National League, Randy Ready started 40 games at 3B, 39 at 2B, and 10 in LF. That's not a lot of games, but he definitely earned far more playing time than he got that year, and when he was on the field, he was absolute dynamite with a 5.4 fWAR, 5.8 bWAR, 1.86 WPA, and 3.54 REW. Not my fault the Padres completely mismanaged their personnel. Howard Johnson started 127 games at 3B for the Mets, and 26 at SS, so the position was not completely foreign to him, and SS was quite short on quality depth that year, while 3B was overflowing with talent.


          Reliever of the Year Award:

          AL:

          Tom Henke, TOR
          Dennis Eckersley, OAK
          Mike Henneman, DET

          NL:

          Tim Burke, MON
          Andy McGaffigan, MON
          Todd Worrell, STL

I probably should've had a picture of Tim Burke here, as in my opinion he was the best reliever in baseball that year. Screw that. When a player from the team you cheer for deserves an award in his league, the choice is automatic, no?

Tom Henke and Dennis Eckersley were extremely close that year as I saw the race for reliever of the year in the AL. Could've gone either way, but I felt Henke had a razor-thin edge over Eck. Sometimes the numbers will work in favour of your favourite team, and sometimes, as you'll see in the AL MVP race, they will work against it. The numbers are the numbers. I just interpret them as I see them, and whoever they tell me should win wins, or makes the list of finalists, which is quite an accomplishment in and of itself.

The Terminator went 0-6, with 34 saves in 72 appearances across 94.0 innings. He led the league in saves and games finished, closing the season with a 2.49 ERA (182 ERA+, 55 ERA-), and a 2.33 FIP (53 FIP-). He allowed just a .183 opponents batting average, with a 0.93 WHIP, 5.9 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a staggering 12.3 K/9, which led to a very impressive 5.12 K/BB rate. He put up a 3.3 pitching fWAR, and had the same in pitching bWAR, with a 2.07 pitching WPA, and 1.84 pitching REW. Yes, he gave up too many dingers for a closer, but when you have flyball tendencies (no numbers to back that up, just recollections), you're going to give those up, and when you're a closer, they're going to sting. A lot. The extremely high strikeout rate and low walk rate would definitely help though, as both would combine to limit baserunners, which limits the damage that homeruns can cause. It was an excellent season for a relief pitcher, and he should have walked away with the Rolaids Relief Man Award, but that award instead went to Dave Righetti of the Yankees, who...well...yeah, I got nothing.

In my estimation, the Expos had the two best relievers in the National League in 1987 in Burke and McGaffigan. We'll look at the guy I think should've won the award here though. Burke, as stated above was probably the best reliever in the game that year. He went 7-0, with 18 saves in 55 appearances, which covered 91.0 innings. Unlike Henke, he wasn't a big strikeout guy, but he did not walk people and he did not give up many dingers. Burke had a miniscule 1.19 ERA (356 ERA+, 29 ERA-), and a rock solid 2.59 FIP (64 FIP-). He held opponents to a .190 opponents batting average, with a 0.89 WHIP, rates of 6.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, and a very good 3.41 K/BB rate. His nerdy stats included a 2.3 pitching fWAR, a 4.3 pitching bWAR, and a 4.96 pitching WPA, which easily led the NL, and was second to Roger Clemens in all of baseball. He also put up a 2.26 pitching REW, which placed him among the leaders in the NL.

There are all sorts of ways to get it done in the late innings. Strikeouts are definitely preferred, but not walking anybody, and not giving up homers are two very important traits for a reliever that consistently pitches in higher leverage situations, and Burke demonstrated the latter two traits in spades in 1987. Steve Bedrosian of the Phillies walked away with not only the Rolaids Relief Man Award, but the Cy Young Award as well. You see folks, this is why we need the nerd stats and voters who can interpret them, so that crap like this doesn't keep happening. Unfortunately back then advanced statistics were extremely rudimentary, and as a result, baseball card stats filled the vaccuum, and produced some dumb results. That's part of the motivation for this series. Correcting the stupid, one season at a time.


          Jackie Robinson Award:

          AL:

          Mark McGwire, OAK
          Kevin Seitzer, KCR
          Devon White, CAL

          NL:

          Benito Santiago, SDP
          Joe Magrane, STL
          Chris James, PHI

Kevin Seitzer would eventually become the Blue Jays' hitting coach, and Devon White would very soon bring those long, loping strides in CF to Toronto, but here we're focusing on the guy who should've won the award in 1987. Lo and behold, he actually did win it. Mark McGwire had a mind boggling rookie season that year. He slashed .289/.370/.618/.987 (164 OPS+, 157 wRC+), with 49 HR, 118 RBI, and 97 R. He led the majors in SLG, and HR that season and, unlike HoFer Jim Rice, did not hit into many ground ball double plays, finishing with just six that year. Sabermetrically speaking, he was also outstanding, with a 5.1 fWAR, and bWAR, which is an all-star level of production. Needless to say, that's extremely good for a rookie. He was among the AL leaders in WPA (3.34), and REW (3.98). Seitzer and White actually weren't that far behind despite completely different statistical profiles, but I went with McGwire here, and the writers agreed with me.

Benito Santiago was nowhere near the catcher that Ivan Rodriguez would become, but oh my, did he ever go about his catching duties with flair. He also had a rocket for an arm, and would throw out would be base stealers from his knees. He only threw out 32% of attempted steals that year, which was mildly above the league average of 29%, but when 1988 rolled around, he cemented his reputation as a guy you did not want to run on with a 45% CS% against a 29% league average. Incredibly, my selection here was also backed up by the writers. Don't let it go to your head guys and gals. Noses to the grindstone. Many awful selections to come, even in 1987. Santiago slashed at a .300/.324/.467/.791 rate, which was good for a 111 OPS+, and a 109 wRC+, with 18 HR, 79 RBI, 64 R, and 21 SB, against 12 CS, which isn't even a break-even rate, but it is rare to see a catcher run at all. As the OBP number in the slash line shows, the man was completely allergic to walks, walking just 16 times (2 of them intentional) against 112 K. He put together a 3.1 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, 0.51 WPA, 0.60 REW. Not tremendous, but all the numbers are above average for a major leaguer, which is very good for a player in his first full season, and in a somewhat weaker rookie field, he was the number one choice for my money.

It was a phenomenal rookie class in the AL that year. I mean I put six of them (Henneman, Nokes, McGwire, White, Steinbach and Seitzer - that's both catchers, the starting first baseman, and a starting outfielder, along with the backup third baseman, and a reliever) on my All-Star team for cryin' out loud. As talented as it was, it was also deep. Rookies who were very good, but did not make the All-Star team included Mike Greenwell, Chris Bosio, Ellis Burks, De Wayne Buice, and B.J. Surhoff among others. It was one of the best rookie classes I've ever seen.


          Cy Young Award:

          AL:

          Roger Clemens, BOS
          Frank Viola, MIN
          Teddy Higuera, MIL
          Jimmy Key, TOR
          Bret Saberhagen, KCR

          NL:

          Nolan Ryan, HOU
          Mike Scott, HOU
          Bob Welch, LAD
          Orel Hershiser, LAD
          Rick Reuschel, PIT/SFG

The Roger Clemens era of dominance had begun in 1986, and lasted a long, long time. Yes, a cloud of suspicion still hangs over him, and he was a bit of an ass, but he was still the greatest pitcher I ever saw. Other pitchers like Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson were probably more likeable, although Johnson was quite standoffish during his playing days, but has mellowed and become much more likeable post-career. Hard for me to argue that there were any better pitchers during my 40ish years of baseball fandom though.

The 1987 race for best pitcher in the AL was no contest for me. There were six extremely strong candidates when you include Mark Langston of the Mariners, but Clemens towered above all of them, and the writers agreed with me. What is going on? That harmony is about to change, but it feels...strange. Clemens went 20-9, with a 2.97 ERA (154 ERA+, 65 ERA-), and a 2.91 FIP (67 FIP-), in 281.2 IP, and 36 GS. He led the majors in wins, CG (18 - half the games he started), and SHO (7 - about a fifth of the games he started), and the AL in FIP, and K/BB (3.08). His remaining rate stats went as follows: 7.9 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 8.2 K/9. He led the majors in pitching fWAR (8.4), pitching bWAR (9.4), pitching WPA, and pitching REW (both 5.41). That is dominance. No question for me about this selection. Easy peasy. Next.

By contrast the NL Cy Young race was nip and tuck for me. I settled on Nolan Ryan, but any one of the first four would make a fine choice. I can see why the writers were tempted to go with a reliever (Bedrosian), as none of the four starters really stood out from each other. They just selected the wrong reliever in my opinion.

In his age 40 season with the Astros, Nolan Ryan was dominant with a capital "D". He led the major leagues in K (270), FIP (2.47, FIP- of 64), had the fewest H/9 allowed (6.5), the highest K/9 rate (11.5), the best K/BB rate (3.10), and led the National League in ERA (2.76), and ERA+ (142, ERA- of 70). All of these amazing stats, and his final win/loss record for the year...was 8-16. 8-16! If Jacob deGrom thinks he's got it bad this year, he should study Nolan Ryan's 1987 season, and realize how good he has it in terms of team support. He put up a 1.14 WHIP, a 0.6 HR/9 rate, and a 3.7 BB/9 rate. His fWAR was 6.4, bWAR was 5.4, and his WPA and REW came in at 2.50 and 2.52 respectively. Let me re-read his age for you. The dude was 40. So, if he was this dominant, why does he not significantly stand out from the other three? Volume. He pitched about 210 innings (211.2 to be precise), while the other three were in the range of 250 to 260. Dominance is an awesome starting point, but volume matters too, and volume is what allowed the other three to stay within spitting distance of Ryan.

Meanwhile, it was Bedrosian walking away with the NL hardware. If you figure out why, let me know because I have no earthly clue. I don't think I would've had him in my top five NL relievers, let alone all pitchers. Oh, wait a minute, I think I've got it. He led the majors in savezzz with a nice round number of 40. Ugh. Awful. Just awful.


          Most Valuable Player:

          AL:

          Roger Clemens, BOS
          Wade Boggs, BOS
          Alan Trammell, DET
          Frank Viola, MIN
          Teddy Higuera, MIL
          Jimmy Key, TOR
          Bret Saberhagen, KCR
          Paul Molitor, MIL
          Mark Langston, SEA
          Mark McGwire, OAK

          NL:

          Tony Gwynn, SDP
          Eric Davis, CIN
          Dale Murphy, ATL
          Tim Raines, MON
          Orel Hershiser, LAD
          Mike Schmidt, PHI
          Ozzie Smith, STL
          Bob Welch, LAD
          Darryl Strawberry, NYM
          Jack Clark, STL

Just as Dwight Gooden was MLB's most valuable player in my 1985 rankings, so too was Roger Clemens in 1987, not by as wide a margin, but it was big enough to call it for him. So, rather than posting another picture of Clemens, I went with the guy I considered to be the most valuable position player in MLB in 1987, Wade "Chicken Man" Boggs. I don't buy into whole "The MVP has to be the most valuable player on a playoff bound team" argument because it's not the player's fault he was not surrounded with better talent. That is on the front office, and apparently the Red Sox front office did not do a great job that year, as they had Clemens, Boggs, Dwight Evans, a very good starting pitcher in Bruce Hurst, and a couple of very talented rookies in Greenwell and Burks. They must have had roster filler at the rest of the positions. How else do you explain a 78-84 record with franchise cornerstones such as these?

Boggs put up an insane season in 1987, with a slash line of .363/.461/.588/1.049 (174 OPS+, 171 wRC+) with 24 HR, 89 RBI, 108 R, and 105 BB, against just 48 K. He led the majors in OBP, and the AL in batting average, OPS, OPS+, and IBB with 19. He did all this while playing very good defense at 3B. He put up an amazing 8.9 fWAR, 8.3 bWAR, a very good WPA of 3.47, and an excellent REW of 4.38. Even though he played for a team we all loathe, he was a lot of fun to watch in his prime. He drove pitchers and defenses bonkers, because there was absolutely no way to defend him, and he very rarely struck out.

I know what you're asking...Um, where's George Bell? It's really, really close between him and McGwire for 10th on the MVP list, but he wound up in 11th for me. 10th is the absolute highest spot he should be put in if we're using modern stats tools, and we are, so 10th or 11th it is. Jimmy Key is also in the six spot, so that's good. Next question, why so many pitchers on the AL list? The runs per game average in the AL was 4.90, which is very high. In seasons with high offensive output, what becomes scarce? Quality pitching for one thing. It definitely has more value when hitters are bashing the ball all over the lot. Very good pitching will stand out in such an environment, and can really help a team win games, and I think that was the case here. Maybe there weren't as many top of the scale position players in the AL that year, but rather there was tons of depth. The NL only has two pitchers in its list, and some incredible seasons from the position players who made the top ten. Whatever the reason, the AL comes out rather pitching heavy, and I guess that can happen sometimes.

Tony Gwynn emerged for me in a tightly bunched NL MVP race. He hit .370/.447/.511/.958 (158 OPS+, 154 wRC+), with 7 HR, 54 RBI, 119 R, 218 H, 82 BB, against just 35 K, and 56 SB, against just 12 CS. He was an excellent baserunner and an average to above average defender in RF. His hits total and batting average led the majors. He also led the NL in both fWAR (7.4), and bWAR (8.6), and put up a solid 3.89 WPA, and 4.14 REW. Gwynn was the NL mirror image of Boggs in the AL, in that he drove defenses and pitchers absolutely nuts by never striking out, and having an annoying habit of hitting the ball where the fielders weren't.

The position player depth was not as deep as the AL's, but the quality at the top end was ridiculously good. Why Hershiser and Welch in the top ten, with no Ryan and Scott? Hitting pushed the first two up, and the latter two down in the MVP rankings. It doesn't take much for this to have consequences in such a tightly packed race.

That's all for now. Hope you enjoyed it. This series is going to be taking a hiatus, and I'm not sure when I'll be getting back to it. Hopefully soon, because I enjoy doing it, but for now it's not going to be possible.