Heading into the offseason, the Jays had something of a
logjam in the outfield. Barring injury, Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar were
guaranteed the right and center field spots, setting the stage for a
competition between Ben Revere, Michael Saunders, and Dalton Pompey. Rather
than letting things play out, the Jays jettisoned Revere to Washington,
reallocating his increasing salary to an area of greater need.
By trading Revere, the organization now has a clear top four
in the outfield; Bautista, Pillar, Saunders, and Pompey.
Questions about Saunders’s health will likely never go away,
but as long as he’s healthy (knock on wood)(knock on wood again)(maybe one more
time just in case) he has the best track record of success among the contenders
for the left field job. Pompey, with his defense, speed, and switch-hitting
ability, would be a perfect fourth outfielder, as he can act as a bat and
pinch-runner off the bench, and he’s a good enough all-around player to spell
each of the starters once in a while.
But it may not be as simple as plugging those players into
the appropriate holes. It’s reasonable to think that a) Pompey could still use
more time in the minors, and b) the lack of a full-time role could be
detrimental to his development. In fact, it
appears as though the Jays are leaning in that direction.
So, at least for now, Pompey isn’t the answer. But there are
other options around, as the new management team’s search for depth has brought
about another logjam of sorts in the form of a glut of AAA-outfielders: beyond
Pompey, there’s Ezequiel Carrera, Domonic Brown, Darrell Ceciliani, and Junior
Lake. It’s not the most exciting group, but... well... ok, there’s no but. It’s
not the most exciting group.
With Pompey seemingly out of the equation for now, I’ll
gladly throw my support behind Lake and his miserable -1.6 fWAR the last two
years.
The problem with Lake, of course, is that he’s been all
kinds of terrible since his impressive 2013 debut with the Cubs. He’s an
average baserunner, he has terrible defensive numbers, and he somehow manages
to walk less and strikeout more than JP Arencibia. Except, you
know... without the power and positional adjustment.
Just to recap, Junior Lake is JP Arencibia except a bit
worse at the things Arencibia is terrible at and without the things Arencibia
is good at.
Yes, this is my argument for
Junior Lake. Are you sold yet?
Now that we’ve established that Lake is terrible, it’s time
to look at a few areas where maybe he kind of almost isn’t. Luckily, these are
key areas, given the role the fourth outfielder is expected to fill.
For starters, Junior Lake bats right-handed. The other
candidates for the role all bat left and wouldn’t set up an effective platoon
with Saunders.
Not only does he bat right-handed, but he’s had a lot of
success against lefties in his brief major league career. In an admittedly small sample of 200 plate
appearances against southpaws over his three major league seasons, Lake has a
.280/.325/.446 line for a 114 wRC+. Over the same period, Saunders has a 113
wRC+ against righties. While platoons can never be deployed perfectly, a 113
wRC+ would have ranked just outside the top ten left fielders last year (right behind
our old friend Colby Rasmus, who earned himself a $15.8 million qualifying
offer on the back of that offensive performance).
There’s a positive to take from Lake’s terrible defense, as
well: it only seems to show up when he’s in center field. The samples are all far
too small to draw any definitive conclusions from, but his -13.3 UZR in center
and +9.3 in left suggest that he may be just fine as a left fielder. That’s the
same problem Saunders has had, though, and not having a second center fielder
on the roster is far from ideal. But either of them could fake it once in a
while if necessary, and none of this precludes Pompey being called up if a
longer-term need arises.
As far as his average baserunning is concerned, it may not
be Pompey-calibre, but he would still be a solid option as a runner off the
bench to replace the likes of Smoak, Colabello, Encarnacion and Martin in
late-game situations.
It’s possible that all of this is moot and Saunders doesn’t
even need to be platooned, as his numbers against lefties have been good enough
the last couple of years to give him a shot. But Lake’s numbers in the split
have been much better than simply “good enough,” and it’s likely that Saunders
will get at least semi-regular time off regardless of who’s backing him up.
Lake has a lot of holes, but if you squint just enough, you
can see the makings of a solid platoon outfielder who can be a positive
contributor to the Jays if he’s used in the appropriate situations.
That is, of course, assuming John Gibbons can keep him out of center field and away from righties.
That is, of course, assuming John Gibbons can keep him out of center field and away from righties.
