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Now, this is a story all about how
My life got flipped-turned upside down |
As the opening line to the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air theme song would allude to, the entire sporting world has been rocked by the COVID-19 virus. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred already had his hands full with the Astros trash banging scandal and is in line to be a bigger Enemy of The State than the current POTUS if the 2020 season is officially canceled. It`s optimistic to think a season could begin before Independence Day. In the event of a partial season, it surely would be unlike any other with impacts that go far beyond the sport of baseball in 2020. While it's tough to put the Focus on baseball in the midst of a global pandemic, these issues will impact the economic landscape for future years, such as the draft, free agency, roster sizes, minor league teams, and long term feasibility of the sport.
In the deal, MLB has the right to shorten the 2020 draft to five rounds, sources tell ESPN. Additionally, it can delay the start of the international signing period to as late as January 2021.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 27, 2020
The first major announcement is that the draft has been shortened to 5 rounds. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel have covered all of the implications of the deal agreed upon by the MLB and MLBPA. It seems to appease the owners, as it delays any large cash payments in the event of a cancelled season. It also leads to the inevitable shrinking of the minor leagues. The players were able to get their service time counted in a lost year, which was a main priority of the union. It`s highly unlikely there would be any short season baseball in the current environment, and I`m concerned that many minor league teams may not be able to survive without having Summertime baseball. One thing I haven't seen mentioned with playing in neutral venues or in front of empty stadiums is what would happen to the AAA schedule. In a compacted season MLB teams are going to need a shuttle of bullpen arms, spot starters, and a place for injured players to rehab, even with the expansion of the rosters to 29 or more. The potential for injuries could increase.
From a prospect standpoint, the shortening of the draft creates a unique opportunity to add talent to the organization from players typically drafted in the later rounds. Any undrafted players will be available to sign freely for $20K to any team. Some players may choose to wait until the 2021 draft, or follow the Carter Stewart path and explore the opportunity of playing professional baseball in Japan. I have combed through the past 10 years of the MLB Draft outlining some notable players that have been drafted in the 6th round and beyond. There will be legitimate undrafted talent this year. One caveat from this could lead to an increase in the quality of play in the NCAA ranks next year. Wouldn't be a bad idea to market the College World Series on the levels of March Madness and the NCAA Bowl games. Those are all highly lucrative events.Also in story: As part of MLB/union deal, signing bonus values associated with each draft pick will remain at 2019 levels next two years. Agent Scott Boras calls move “unconscionable.” https://t.co/XuESJy5vHA— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 27, 2020
Pick | Team | Player |
2010
| ||
6.202
|
BAL
|
Kevin Gausman
|
7.221
|
TB
|
Micheal Lorenzen
|
7.227
|
FLA
|
Mark Canha
|
8.251
|
TB
|
Merrill Kelly
|
8.260
|
COL
|
Corey Dickerson
|
8.264
|
LAA
|
Kole Calhoun
|
9.272
|
NYM
|
Jacob deGrom
|
11.352
|
LAD
|
Joc Pederson
|
16.486
|
TOR
|
Dalton Pompey
|
19.571
|
ARI
|
Adam Eaton
|
23.704
|
ATL
|
Evan Gattis
|
2011
| ||
6.199
|
TOR
|
Anthony deScalfani
|
6.201
|
CWS
|
Marcus Semien
|
6.204
|
TEX
|
Derek Fisher
|
7.226
|
OAK
|
Blake Treinen
|
7.241
|
PHI
|
Ken Giles
|
8.264
|
TEX
|
Kyle Hendricks
|
9.292
|
BOS
|
Travis Shaw
|
9.297
|
SF
|
Derek Law
|
10.317
|
DET
|
Curt CasAli
|
22.685
|
CIN
|
Amir Garrett
|
32.979
|
TOR
|
Kevin Pillar
|
34.1032
|
NYM
|
Seth Lugo
|
2012
| ||
6.189
|
HOU
|
Brett Phillips
|
6.213
|
ARI
|
Jake Lamb
|
8.272
|
TB
|
Luke Maile
|
11.340
|
MIN
|
Taylor Rogers
|
12.396
|
TEX
|
Keone Kela
|
13.424
|
DET
|
Devon Travis
|
15.475
|
TOR
|
Ryan Borucki
|
18.554
|
CHC
|
David Bote
|
18.568
|
SF
|
Matt Duffy
|
32.995
|
MIL
|
Nick Anderson
|
37.1126
|
PIT
|
Jacob Waguespack
|
2013
| ||
6.175
|
TOR
|
Matt Boyd
|
6.179
|
PIT
|
Adam Frazier
|
7.208
|
SD
|
Jake Bauers
|
7.225
|
CIN
|
Tyler Mahle
|
8.240
|
ARI
|
Brad Keller
|
8.249
|
BAL
|
Trey Mancini
|
9.260
|
MIN
|
Mitch Garver
|
9.261
|
CLE
|
Thomas Pannone
|
9.268
|
SD
|
Adam Cimber
|
10.297
|
SEA
|
Emilio Pagan
|
11.321
|
CLE
|
Adam Plutko
|
12.355
|
TOR
|
Tim Mayza
|
12.356
|
NYM
|
Jeff McNeil
|
14.434
|
NYY
|
Caleb Smith
|
15.445
|
TOR
|
Jonathan Davis
|
16.475
|
TOR
|
Danny Jansen
|
22.665
|
STL
|
Luke Voit
|
26.773
|
BOS
|
Mauricio Dubon
|
30.895
|
TOR
|
Rowdy Tellez
|
33.977
|
HOU
|
Tyler White
|
2014
| ||
6.168
|
CHC
|
Dylan Cease
|
6.189
|
LAD
|
Brock Stewart
|
9.285
|
STL
|
Daniel Ponce de Leon
|
11.326
|
MIL
|
Brandon Woodruff
|
11.331
|
BAL
|
John Means
|
12.374
|
BOS
|
Jalen Beeks
|
16.466
|
HOU
|
Ramon Laureano
|
34.1006
|
HOU
|
Josh James
|
2015
| ||
6.195
|
LAA
|
David Fletcher
|
8.236
|
MIAMI
|
Chris Paddack
|
13.403
|
BAL
|
Cedric Mullens
|
15.437
|
COL
|
Sam Hilliard
|
2016
| ||
5.162
|
TOR
|
Cavan Biggio *
|
6.196
|
STL
|
Tommy Edman
|
9.281
|
LAD
|
Tony Gonsolin
|
12.362
|
CLE
|
Zach Plesac
|
13.390
|
TB
|
Nate Lowe
|
I omitteed players that were able to re-enter the draft after going to college, such as Alex Bregman, Aaron Nola, Kris Bryant, Jon Gray, Dansby Swanson, and Andrew Benintendi. With the changes coming in the 2020 draft, prospects coming out of high school may instead opt for the Pursuit of Happiness and a college degree over signing immediately to a major league club.
The Blue Jays have the 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft, which is a huge asset and their highest pick since taking Vernon Wells 5th overall in 1997. As of now Spencer Torkelson seems like the consensus number 1 overall pick, and it doesn`t appear like there will be much time for any others to overtake him. Austin Martin is another top college bat out of Vanderbilt and many mock drafts have Nick Gonzales from New Mexico State slotted in at 5th. Emerson Hancock and Asa Lacy are the two top ranked college pitchers and could be available to add to a stable of Bright starting pitching prospects.
In these quick talks of an agreement for 2020, players prioritized service time while the owners were concerned about the large influx of cash they'd pay in a lost season. Hopefully these concessions are the start of a healthy negotiating process and the 2022 CBA talks can go off without a Hitch. A work stoppage almost destroyed the game in 1994 and it took the Bad Boys of the steroid era to bash home runs to regain popularity. The players union will likely continue to protect the active players and we might see an international draft process as early as 2022.
Below I have listed all of the deferred, retained, and buried money for the 2020 season. My loose understanding of contract law would interpret this with the deferred money being paid, as it payment from previous seasons yet the retained money would not be paid, saving teams like the Red Sox, Mariners, D-Backs and Dodgers over $10 million. I still haven't seen a concrete resolution on what happens to released players who have had their contract purchased or terminated, but guys like Ellsbury, Tulo and David Wright could still get paid the full amount of their salary while active big leaguers receive $150K per player. The Red Sox seem to benefit in a cancelled 2020 despite a controversial off-season. They have $35M in dead money on their salary payroll, with $21M retained in trades and $14 to Rusney Castillo in the minor leagues. Though their efforts to reset the luxury tax penalty could be rendered moot as it is likely MLB will reset or pro-rate the luxury tax levels.
Team
|
Player
|
Deferred
|
Retained
|
Other
|
Arizona
|
Greinke
|
$10.3M
| ||
Tomas
|
$17M Buried
| |||
Atlanta
| ||||
Baltimore
|
Trumbo, Cashner, O`Day
|
$1.5M, $1M, $1M
| ||
Boston
|
Price, Sandoval, Castillo
|
$16M, $5M
| $14M Buried | |
Chi White Sox
|
Alonso
|
$1M
| ||
Chi Cubs
|
Brach
|
$500K
| ||
Cincinnati
|
Griffey Jr, Arroyo
|
$3.5M, $1.363M
| ||
Cleveland
|
Kluber
|
$500K
| ||
Colorado
|
Mike Dunn
|
$1M
| ||
Detroit
|
Fielder
|
$6M
| ||
Houston
|
Singleton
|
$250K
| ||
Kansas City
|
Peralta
|
$1M
| ||
LA Angels
| ||||
LA Dodgers
|
Bailey, Olivera, Maeda
|
$5M, $4.6M, $2.463M
| ||
Kazmir
|
$8M
| |||
Miami
|
Wei-Yen Chen
|
$15M
|
$10M
| |
Milwaukee
| ||||
Minnesota
| ||||
NY Yankees
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
$5M
| ||
Ellsbury
|
$26.142M (Jacoby released)
| |||
NY Mets
|
Bonilla, Vargas
|
$1.2M (Bonilla)
|
$2M (Vargas)
| |
David Wright
|
$12M (Released)
| |||
Oakland
| ||||
Philadelphia
|
Odubel Herrera
|
$7M (Released)
| ||
Pittsburgh
|
Marte
| |||
San Diego
|
Olivera, Kinsler
|
$4.25M (Released)
| ||
San Francisco
|
Cozart
|
$12.6M (Released)
| ||
Seattle
|
Bruce, Leake, Santana, Cano
| |||
St Louis
|
Leake
| |||
Tampa Bay
|
Longoria
| |||
Texas
|
Fielder
|
$9M (Retired? Released?)
| ||
Toronto
|
Tulowitzki
|
$14M (Released)
| ||
Washington
|
Strickland
| |||
Strasburg, Soriano
|
2021 Blue Jay Free Agents
Player
|
IP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
WAR
|
SV
|
AGE
|
A
|
65.1
|
2.76
|
2.73
|
13.22
|
1.2
|
34
|
30
|
B
|
53
|
1.87
|
2.73
|
14.09
|
1.8
|
23
|
29
|
From the chart above, Player B is Ken Giles, who is currently set to hit free agency after the 2020 season regardless how many games are played. Player A is, yeah, you probably guessed it… Will Smith. He just signed an open-market deal with the Atlanta Braves for 3 years and $40 million, with a QO attached and a comp pick surrendered. He seems like an excellent comp for Giles and Atkins should absolutely be comfortable offering him a contract around the same ballpark figures to shore up the back end of the bullpen.
