Tuesday, January 23, 2018

So… now what?

Randal Grichuk, the reason I had to re-write a bunch of this post.
As it usually does in mid-January, the offseason continue to drag on. This year, however, it’s really dragging. Actually, “dragging” is a bit of a generous term for what we’re witnessing. More accurately, it’s just kind of sitting there.

Whatever you want to call it, it’s really boring. Nothing is happening. Between the Ohtani and Stanton situations, there were a few exciting moves in December whose resolutions looked like they were going to open the floodgates of transactions, yet here we are, nearing the end of January, and the floodgates remain firmly shut. Every now and then, we get a trickle – Jay Bruce signed! Here we go! – but it looks like the only thing that will get this year’s market started will be time.

Seriously… we’re less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and the majority of the big free agents remain unsigned. By MLBTR’s free agent predictions, 11 of the top 20 free agents are still available (including all of the top six), and nearly half of those who have signed are relievers. Things are weird.

But through it all, the Jays have quietly had a nice little offseason and made clear improvements to the team for little cost, both in payroll space and prospect cost. They bolstered their infield depth with Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte, and they added a solid veteran outfielder in Curtis Granderson on a cheap, one-year contract, then, just as I finished writing this post last week, they made me re-write a bunch of it by trading for Randal Grichuk. A bit of a dick move, but a valuable addition nonetheless. They haven't been splashy, but those are all under-the-radar moves that provide some desperately needed depth and flexibility, and three of those four players are under team control for three years or more, so they continue the trend of helping the team now and bridging the gap to the upcoming core of prospects.

Yangervis Solarte provides some much-needed depth and versatility.
We’ve discussed it in the comments section a few times, but I think the team, as constructed right now, can put together a really nice, underrated lineup. The numbers below won’t necessarily reflect what we should expect going forward since some of the players are clearly on the downside of their careers, but here’s a breakdown of what each player has done in the respective split over the last three years (and don’t worry about the batting lineup… it means nothing here):


vs. RHP
vs. LHP
Pos
Player
wRC+
Pos
Player
wRC+
2B
Devon Travis
112
2B
Devon Travis
112
3B
Josh Donaldson
151
3B
Josh Donaldson
164
1B
Justin Smoak
113
1B
Justin Smoak
124
DH
Kendrys Morales
103
DH
Kendrys Morales
135
C
Russell Martin
104
C
Russell Martin
109
SS
Troy Tulowitzki
97
SS
Troy Tulowitzki
100
LF
Curtis Granderson
130
LF
Steve Pearce
107
RF
Randal Grichuk
111
RF
Randal Grichuk
104
CF
Kevin Pillar
80
CF
Kevin Pillar
108
IF
Yangervis Solarte
115
IF
Yangervis Solarte
80
IF
Aledmys Diaz
120
IF
Aledmys Diaz
83
OF
Ezequiel Carrera
97
OF
Ezquiel Carrera
86
OF
Steve Pearce
109
OF
Curtis Granderson
78
OF
Teoscar Hernandez
113
OF
Teoscar Hernandez
108
C
Luke Maile
LOL
C
Luke Maile
51

A few quick points about position players:
  • Those are both easily above-averaged, well-rounded lineups, and the only platoon is Granderson/Pearce.
  • Suddenly, the team looks perfectly suited to take on right-handed pitching. That should be a pleasant change. They also have a bit of speed and what looks like really good defense.
  • Looking at the quality of players on the bench against RHP makes the depth look pretty impressive. It also makes me wonder about Kendrys Morales’s place on the team since he’s a DH whose numbers pale in comparison to a couple of backup middle infielders. They would probably be much better off allowing guys to shuffle around as needed to keep better players fresh, healthy, and consistently in the lineup.
  • Looking at the quality of players on the bench against LHP makes me understand Morales’s value to the team (a little bit… kind of).
  • There are now two too many bench player on this roster, which means either another move has to follow or one or both of Hernandez or Diaz (who both have options) will need to start the year in Buffalo.
  • Not listed are the abundance of depth options who will likely start the season in the minors but provide more high-end minor-league depth than the team has had in recent years. They include outfielders Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford and catchers Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire (both of whom make me comfortable going into the season with Luke Maile as the backup catcher).
Marcus Stroman anchors what looks like a strong rotation,
though the fifth spot remains open.
As for the pitching:

SP
Marcus Stroman
SP
Aaron Sanchez
SP
JA Happ
SP
Marco Estrada
SP
Joe Biagini
RP
Roberto Osuna
RP
Dominic Leone
RP
Ryan Tepera
RP
Danny Barnes
RP
Aaron Loup
RP
Carlos Ramirez
RP
Matt Dermody/Tim Mayza

And a couple notes on the pitching:
  • I think that fifth starter spot will be and interesting development the next couple weeks. I don’t think they’re just going to hand the job to Biagini, but whether they bring in a mediocre pitcher to battle it out with him or an obvious upgrade to bump Biagini to a swing-man role remains to be seen.
  • The last couple of bullpen spots appear wide open, too, especially with Leone now having been shipped out. I expect one will go to an external candidate (or Biagini, if the external candidate is a starter) and the other will be a spring training duel between the internal candidates.
  • The depth here is better (or, at the very least, more interesting) than it has been in recent years, too, with some good pitching prospects at the upper levels, lead by Ryan Borucki.
Dominic Leone's departure leaves a hole at the back of the bullpen,
one that Joe Biagini could fill if another starter is brought in.
If you’ve made it this far, congratulations! I’m surprised I did! Now for the point of this whole thing: this is an overview on where the team stands right now, but as far as we know they should have somewhere around $15 million available. So where do they go from here? Will they make a big splash or will they just tinker with things? Will they try to find a high-end position player or will they add a pitcher instead? Will they move some of their excess position players or just plug valuable guys in the minors to bolster their depth to start the year?

My preference, as I’ve stated over and over again this offseason, would be to get rid of as much of Morales’s contract as possible and use the roster spot on someone who provides more flexibility. The lineup against lefties would struggle, but it would give them far more options. A week ago, I would have recommended trying to sign Lorenzo Cain, assuming his price/term had dropped into their range, since his bat replaces Morales's nicely and he actually provides lots of speed and defense. With Grichuk in the fold, that no longer makes sense.


Former/future Kansas City Royal Kendrys Morales.
I think it makes the most sense to move two of Pearce, Morales, and Carrera. At that point, they would clear up a few million dollars extra and still have a really strong major league roster, as Hernandez and Diaz would take those opening day spots.

As for the remaining payroll space, a three-year contract to a second-tier free agent starter would fit perfectly on this team - someone like Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, or even Jaime Garcia. It would round out the rotation, move Biagini into Leone's high-leverage bullpen role, and provide some insurance to a 2019 rotation that doesn't currently look to feature Happ or Estrada.

Regardless of which direction they go, it should be an interesting next couple of weeks. Or at least… for the love of god, please let it be an interesting next couple of weeks.