Ten Random thoughts: a look back at the first half and a look ahead to the second half

 

We have hit the All-star break and your Toronto Blue Jays are in 1st place in the AL East. How good have the Blue Jays been? They have won 16 series (10 season series), swept 7 series, lost 7 series and been swept 4 times. They have 26 comeback wins, which is one more than they had all last season. They are a remarkable 32-16 at home. The Blue Jays have a winning record in every month except April. George Springer has been outstanding this season, turning back the clock when it looked like his career was almost over. Springer is batting .285 with 16HR and 53RBI. In this edition of ten random thoughts, we'll look back on the 1st half of the season and look ahead to the 2nd half. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. Every year teams will deal with injuries. The most impactful one the Blue Jays dealt with was to Max Scherzer, who was supposed to be the team's 4th starter. However, he left his first start of the season with a lat injury that arose due to a nagging thumb injury that's been impacting him for a couple of years. For two months, the Blue Jays were basically running with a 3.5 man rotation with Bowden Francis not as good as last season. Francis was eventually put on the IL with shoulder inflammation. While Scherzer is  back and pitching, his availability is guarded at best and who knows how long the thumb will last. He is struggling to throw much more than 70 pitches, which could get him 4-5 innings, depending on his efficiency.  Scherzer is 1-0 with a 4.70ERA over 5 starts this season. The bullpen was missing Erik Swanson, who missed the first 2 months of the season with a shoulder issue (he was eventually DFA'd when he couldn't get his form back. Swanson was 0-2 with a 15.19ERA in 6 appearances this season. Yimi Garcia missed 6 weeks with his own shoulder issue and went right back on the IL after a mishap with the ice bath and spraining his ankle. This will impact the Blue Jays ability to get to closer Jeff Hoffman, who the team would rather only pitch the 9th inning. Garcia is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA over 22 appearances this season. Nick Sandlin, who missed a month with a lat strain, also went right back on the IL with inflammation in his right elbow. Here's hoping he doesn't need tommy john surgery. Sandlin is 0-2 with a 2.20ERA over 19 appearances this season. The most concerning injury has to be with Ryan Burr, who missed the first 3 months of the season with fatigue in his right shoulder, injured his shoulder again against the White Sox in just his second appearance of the season. Given his injury history with his shoulder, this may well end his season and potentially put his career in jeopardy

In terms of position players, the most impactful injury would be to CF Daulton Varsho, who missed the month of the season finishing the rehab on off-season shoulder surgery. Varsho played for a month before he injured his hamstring running from first to third. In his absence, Nathan Lukes (batting .276 with 5HR and 32RBI over 70 games and 181AB), Jonatan Clase (batting .210 with 2HR and 9RBI over 34 games and 100AB) and Myles Straw (batting .246 with 1HR and 16RBI over 78 games and 171AB) have split the playing time, but Varsho is superior defensively. Varsho is batting .207 wih 8 HR and 20 RBI over 24 games and 92AB. Anthony Santander, the big free agent signing of the off-season, played through hip and shoulder injuries for a while that were clearly affecting his performance at the plate, until he was finally shut down May 30. Santander is batting .179 with 6HR and 18RBI over 50 games and 184AB His absence benefits George Springer most since it allows him to DH more often. Springer, Addison Barger (batting .261 with 13HR and 40 RBI over 72 games and 245AB), and Lukes have been getting the reps in RF. Andres Gimenez has missed time with a quad strain and currently a sprained ankle. Gimenez is batting .218 with 5HR and 23 RBI over 61 games and 211AB Leo Jimenez (batting .118 with 1HR and 1RBI over 9 games and 17AB), Ernie Clement (batting .288 with 4HR and 25RBI over 94 games and 313AB) and Davis Schneider (batting .218 with 5HR and 11RBI over 34 games and 78AB) have been filling in.

2. A big improvement over last season has been the timey offense. The Blue Jays have been getting timely hits and have 25 comeback wins, more than they had all season. The veteran bats have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting with Bo Bichette and George Springer both having comeback seasons. Bichette and Springer lead the tean in RBI with 53RBI. Springer leads the team with 16HR. Captain Kirk leads the team in batting average with a solid .303 average (among qualified players). The Blue Jays aren't exactly hitting the cover off the ball, but they are much improved in getting timely hits. I love that they are utilizing the sac bunt. It led directly to a walk-off win against the Angels and can be a very effective hitting tool. Here's hoping they keep it going and don't regress in the second half

3. Three Blue Jays who impressed in the first half

• Tyler Heineman - The Blue Jays backup catcher has been clutch at the plate, batting .329 with 2HR and 13RBI. The speed demon even managed a career high 2 stolen bases. Heineman has primarily caught Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer and will usually be the catcher in a day game after a night game. If Alejandro Kirk needs an extra day or two off down the stretch, the Blue Jays shouldn't hesitate to throw him in there behind the plate.
• Eric Lauer - The veteran lefty has provided the Blue Jays with a viable third starter after the Blue Jays were utilizing an opener and bulk inning pitcher when Max Scherzer went down with a nagging thumb injury and missed the better part of three months. This, combined with an ineffective Bowden Francis, taxed the bullpen. Lauer is 4-2 with a solid 2.78ERA over 14 appearances (8 starts). He should remain in the rotation the remainder of the season and I would give him some winter league action so his success carries over into next season.

• George Springer - Here's a veteran player who deserves votes for comeback player of the year. At the end of spring training, it looked like his career was very much on the back 9 and his time with the Blue Jays was nearing an end. Instead, he is playing like he's ten years younger, putting together his best season since 2019 when he batted .292 with 39 HR and 96 RBI for the Astros. This season, he is batting 270 with 16HR and 53RBI. Compare that to last season when the Blue Jays slugger hit just .220 with 19HR and 56RBI the whole season. Springer should be a candidate for comeback player of the year!

4. Three Blue jays who disappointed in the first half

• Richard Lovelady - Richard Loveday was so bad he went and changed his name (he asked to be called by his nickname Dicky). Loveday made the team out of spring training over Ryan Yarbrough. That turned out to be a poor decision. The soft-throwing lefty was 0-1 with an ugly 21.60ERA over 2 appearances and 1.2 innings. At least Yabrough could have been a long man, and like Lauer, he has experience as a starting pitcher
• Bowden Francis - After a solid 2024 season where he went 8-5 with a 3.30ERA over 27 appearances (13 starts). Francis had quality starts in 7 of his last 8 starts last season. He was hoping that last year's success would carry over to this season. Unfortunately that was not the case and Francis is 2-8 with a 6.08ERA over 14 starts. Francis was placed on the 15-day IL the day after his last start on May 22 with a right shoulder impingement. While trying to play through the injury could have impacted his performance, teams also likely adjusted to him after a season's worth odf video footage to find weaknesses. The main thing is to get Francis healthy first.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - The standards by which the Blue Jays franchise player is about to be judged is going to increase tenfold next year when his 14-year $500 million contract kicks in. The biggest criticisms of Vlad are that he has a tendency to make bad decisions on the base paths (he directly cost the Blue Jays the game on Thursday that would have tied the franchise win streak record of 11 games with 2 baserunning gaffes, trying to go from first to third on a pickoff throwing error and not trying to get into a rundown on a grounder hit to 1st base to allow Nathan Lukes to score). He is on pace to hit around 24 home runs and drive in 80ish runs, which would both be career low totals in a full 162 game schedule. His career high season needs to have an asterisk on it since he was playing home games in minor league stadiums for the bulk of it. Guerrero Jr. is capable of hitting 30-40 home runs, but too often hits the ball hard for a loud out. He's leading the league with 7 errors thus far this season. If Vlad wants to be paid what Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto are getting paid, he needs to start performing at their level and leading this team and being accountable when things are not going his way or the team's way.

5. To me, the pivotal moment of the season was April 25. The team entered the game a game under .500. In 2024, the Blue Jays faced the same scenario April 29, when they were at .500. They lost the game and never got to .500 again. They won on April 25, and yes, they did dip below .500 a few days later, but they swept the series in Seattle mid-May, swept the A's at the end of May and swept the Canada day week long homestand. The Blue Jays already have 27 comeback wins, 2 more than they had all season. Their home record is a sparkling 32-16, compared to a paltry 39-42 a year ago. This is a team that should challenge for the division title, and will at the very least have a wild card spot, unless things go really sideways in the second half

6. Vlad and Alejandro Kirk are going to be the Blue Jays reps at the all-star game. On merit, Kirk definitely deserves the honor (batting .303 with 7HR and 45RBI, thrown out 16 base runners). Vlad, not so much (leads the league with 7 errors, batting .277 with 12HR and 46RBI.). George Springer should be on the team but Aaron Boone obviously wasn't pleased with getting swept recently by the Blue Jays. Springer is batting .270 with 16HR and 53RBI. The selection of the starters amounts to a popular contest, sometimes, but the reserves should be considered more on merit, while also insuring every team has a rep. Springer could still be an injury replacement.

7. The next big event after the all-star break will be the trade deadline July 31 where teams will have the opportunity to add that missing piece to solidify their team. The Blue Jays biggest needs are to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a bullpen arm. Targets: Luis Severino (looked good first 4 innings Friday before things fell apart), Paul Skenes (leads NL with 2.01 ERA)  (will likely need to part with a roster player to get him), David Bednar (12 saves, 2.70ERA), Felix Bautista (18 saves, 2.41 ERA) and Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.07ERA). The Blue Jays could also move Bo Bichette at the deadline to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency

8. Blue jay team awards

• MVP: George Springer - leads team in HR (16) and RBI (53), 6th in hits (81) and 2nd in runs scored (53)
• Unsung hero - Alejandro Kirk - 3rd in hits (89), leads team with .309 batting average, 4th on team in RBI (44) and thrown out 16 base runners
• Best pitcher - Eric Lauer - 4-2 with a solid 2.78ERA over 14 appearances (8 starts)
• Best reliever - Brandon Little - 4-1, leads team with 2.08ERA; been a solid reliever from the left side
• Silver slugger - Bo Bichette - leads team in hits (108), 2nd in RBI (52), batting .281 and has 7HR
• most improved - Bichette - finally healthy after missing half the year last year with a nagging calf injury and a fractured finger, Bichette is back to being arguably the team's most consistent hitter (see above stats)
• gold glove - Nathan Lukes - just one error, has made some big plays in the outfield, especially CF in the absence of Daulton Varsho

9. MLB AWARDS

• AL MVP Aaron Judge- The Yankees slugger continues to be at or near the top of the league in most statistical categories. He's first in batting average (.355), 1st in hits (125), 1st in AL in runs scored (85), 2nd in HR (35) and 2nd in RBI (81). Cal Raleigh will certainly get some votes, but at the end of the day Judge is doing the damage with less protection behind him.
• NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani - the Japanese phenom is back to pitching after more than a year off following a second tommy john surgery September 19, 2023. In 5 starts totaling 9 innings, Ohtani has a 1.00ERA and 10 strikeouts. At the plate, he leads the NL in HR (32) and runs scored (91). His RBI production is down a bit (60) and he has a few less hits (102) but teams are starting to pitch around him, much like Barry Bonds at the height of his career. It's also possible the injury he suffered to his left shoulder sliding into 2nd base in game 1 of the world series might be impacting his performance at the plate. He's still a very big threat at the plate and very imprtant to the Dodgers fortunes
• AL Cy  Young - Garrett Crochet - the Red Sox righty is 2nd in the AL in wins (10), tied for 2nd in ERA (2.23), and is 1st in strikeouts (160). He gives his team a chance to win every 5 days
• NL CY Young - Zack Wheeler - The veteran righty is tied fot 3rd in wins (9), tied for 2nd in ERA (2.36) and leads the NL in strikeouts. Going to be a hard sell to give the Cy Young to Paul Skenes, who has lost twice as many games as he has won
• AL Rookie of the year - A'S SS Jacob Wilson - leads AL among qualified rookies in batting average (.332), hits (113), runs scored (44) and tied for 1st in RBI (42). The A's are looking like the Orioles in their progression and could be a force to be reckoned with by the time they move into their new home in Las Vegas in a couple of years
• NL Rookie of the year - Marlins 1B Eric Wagman. Wagman is 1st in hits among qualified rookies (78) , 2nd in RBI (33), tied for 1st in runs scored (33). His average is a bit lower than you would like to see (.241) and his HR numbers aren't great either (5), but he is the best in the ajority of the categories so gets the nod at the halfway point of the season.
• AL Manager of the year - John Schneider - going from worst to first in a half season means pushing the right buttons with respect to the lineup and pitching choices. Is this team flawed and could they regress in the second half? Yes and yes. They will be going into the All-star break 1st in the AL east and Schneider deserves some of the credit.
• NL Manager of the year - Skip Schumaker of the Miami Marlins - The Marlins rise in the NL East wasn't as dramatic as the Blue Jays rise in the AL East and the Marlins are still a team likely to miss the playoffs. The Marlins, currently in 3rd place in the NL East, benefited from the Braves terrible start to the season and the Braves, now that they have their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. back from a second ACL repait on his knee, could overtake Miami in the standings. Nonetheless, the Marlins could be a dangerous team in a few years since they have drafted high recently because they have been such a bad team. That will all depend on how they develop their prospects though and surrounding those prospects with some good veteran players.

10. Blue Jay of the first half - I have to give the nod to Springer. While Bo Bichette is having a comeback season himself, his off-year was due primarily to injuries that caused him to miss half the season. In the seasons prior to 2024, Bichette was arguably the Blue Jays most consistent and best hitter. Springer, on the other hand has been in decline for a few seasons now and it looked like his time with the Blue Jays might be ending. No question, making him a full-time DH has preserved his aging body and allowed him to focus on one thing, hitting. Springer is still a capable outfielder, and will likely play more in RF when he is in the field, especially when Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander return from the IL.

Ten random thoughts: Weeks 1-4 of the MLB season

 

A month into the MLB season and it has been a glass half full, glass half empty season. The Blue Jays are sitting 2nd in the AL East primarily because the pitching has been solid and the Blue Jays have been producing enough runs most nights through small ball. They got a major distraction off their backs by inking Vladimir Guerrero Jr, to a lifetime deal. Injury wise, Max Scherzer is the biggest concern with the most impact, more on that later. Power, or lack thereof, is a major issue. They continue to struggle with runners in scoring position. We'll address all of the above and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB from month one of the season.

1. As always, we start things off with the injuries and their impact on the team. The first significant injury that came to light actually emerged in spring training with 5th starter Max Scherzer. The forty year old righty was signed to a one year deal just before the season began to add a veteran presence to the rotation. The big risk in signing an aging pitcher is the likelihood of an injury occurring. Unfortunately for Scherzer and the Blue Jays, that injury happened in his first start of the season. Scherzer was hoping to throw around 80 pitches in the game, but he only made it through Innings and about 50 pitches. Throughout spring training and dating back to the 2023 season, Scherzer have been dealing with a thumb injury that had been ampering him and leading to other parts of the body being impacted. The thumb issue limited Scherzer to just 9 starts last season. He had a cortisone shot in his thumb near the knuckle. While it is encouraging that shcherzer was able to throw on l consecutive days in Houston this week, the blue jays will exercise caution with the rehab process for him. They are going to have to deal with figuring out the 5th starter for the next few weeks. Lefty Easton Lucas was tapped to replace Scherzer in the rotation. He did very well in his first two stars, but the last two starts have not gone well at all, to the point where the Blue Jays skipped the 5th starter this last turn, but they can not do that every time. Payton Schultz came in and pitched well after Lucas's last poor start. Alek Manoah and Rickey Tiederman, both recovering from Tommy John surgery, will not be ready to pitch until after the all star game.

Reliever Eric Swanson, who is recovering from ulnar nerve impingement in his pitching arm is nearing a formal rehab assignment. He threw a bullpen this week. His return will make the Blue Jays stronger at the back end of the bullpen. Righty Ryan Burr, who injured his shoulder in the spring training, is getting close to facing live hitters, which puts him a bit behind swanson in a potential return Burr was transferred to the 60 day IL on Sunday so he'll miss at least another month. Reliever Nick Sandlin, who has been dealing with a right lat strain, has not started throwing yet.

Finally, The blue jays are set to welcome back Daulton Varsho, who is set to make his season debut when the Blue Jays start their homestand tomorrow against the Red Sox. Varsho missed the first month of the season as he continued to rehab from off-season shoulder surgery. Varsho got into some spring training games as DH, but the Blue Jays did not want to risk him getting injured liding into a base.m. Also, Varsha wasn't ready to play in the field when he Blue Jays broke camp to start the regular season. Last season, Varsho batted .214 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI over 136 games. Varsho is a terrific defender so he will strengthen the Blue Bays outfield defense. The Blue Jays are going to have a tough decision to make as to who is demoted to AAA-ball. It will likely be between Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger. The Blue Jays may opt to stick with Lukes to give them an extra left-handed bat off the bench

2.  GM Ross Atkins deserves credit for managing to complete the complete the lifetime contract to star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It didn't look like the deal would happen until the end of the season, if at all. Guerrero Jr.  made it very clear that he would not negotiate once spring training opened. The self-imposed deadline came and went with no contract signed. The two sides must have been close to a deal because negotiations continued once the regular.season began. It's also possible that Guerrero Jr's slow start to the season prompted Vlad to accept what the Blue Jays, were offering for fear of not getting as much on the open market. Also, until the deal was reached, the contract status was going to continue to be a big distraction that the team did not need. The fact that the Blue Jays were able to retain one of their own drafted selections will likely help them attract better free agents. Did the Blue Jays overpay? They didn't really have much choice. Ticket sales were down and management needed to do something to entice fans to come to the ballpark. In order to live up to this massive deal, Guerrero Jr. is going to have to have the season he had in 2021, when he hit a career high 48 HR and 111RBI, albeit playing in minor league ball parks for a good chunk of the home schedule due to covid-19 restrictions in Toronto. Two home runs in a month into the season isn't going to cut it. 

3. Now that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk are both locked up long term, the next major player the Blue jays need to focus on signing is SS Bo Bichette, who is having a comeback season after a rough 2024 season that saw him miss half the season with a naked calf injury. He also had career laws in most statistical categories. Prior to last season, Bichette was the Blue Jays most consistent batter, Including leading the AL in hits in both twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Bichette hit over .300 in 3 of his first five seasons. Defensively,  he can be prone to throwing errors, but that is getting better with experience. If Guerrero Jr. is worth #500 million, Bichette should command at least that amount. It's crazy to me that the blue Jays have apparently put little effort into extending Bichette. The blue jays will also have to make decisions about their starting rotation with chris bassett's contract being up at the end of the season and kevin Gausman's expiring a year later. Bassitt has been solid this season and Gausman has also had a bounce back year. However, both pitchers are in their 30s. If Rickey Tiederman and Alek Manoah both recover from their Tommy John surgeries and pitch well in the latter part of the season, one or both may be considered for the rotation next year. Certainly where the Blue Jays are in the standings in a few months will dictate what happens at the trade deadline. 

4. Stop me if you've heard this one before. The blue jays are struggling to drive runners in scoring position. This unfortunate trend is rearing its ugly head again. The blue jays came into the season hopeful that the addition of anthony santander would some pop to the lineup. They were also hoping as change in scenery might help Andre Gimenez. Is acquired in an off season trade, Gimenez Started at the season with a hot bat, hitting three home runs in the month of march. He has yet to hit one in april. Santander Hit his third home run of the season on Sunday, one of the few highlights from an ugly double header sweep at the hands of the Yankees. The expectations for Guerrero Jr are going to be sky high.Know that he signed that mammoth contract to make him third highest player in the major leagues. Regardless, his output isn't good enough. He should have more than two home runs a month into the season. One thing Vlad has always done consistently is hit the ball hard. The trouble is more often than not, it results in an out. This week, Astros and Yankees combined to outscore the Blue Jays 33-8. The Blue Jays were a combined 4-34 with runners in scoring position. On Tuesday,  they didn't even get a single runner into scoring position. They need to be better with hitting in the clutch and hit for power. Small ball can be effective but only to a point

5. Three Blue Jays who have impressed

• Tyler Heineman - the Blue Jays backup catcher is having a solid start to the season, albeit with a smaller sample size since he is playing once or twice a week,  batting. 500 with 1HR and 5RBI. he has also done a solid job handling the pitchers.
• Jeff Hoffman - originally drafted by the Blue Jays in the 2014 MLB draft,  Jeff Hoffman inked a three year deal with the Blue Jays after the team opted to non-tender Jordan Romano, citing concerns about the health of his pitching elbow. Hoffman has been excellent with a 2-0 record, 6 saves and a 1.35ERA.
• George Springer - talk about turning back the clock.  Veteran George Springer is playing like he's 25 and entering his prime. Before Sunday's double header, Springer was batting .329 with 2HR and 12 RBI. He is no longer batting leadoff, but he has been one of the Blue Jays most reliable hitters and is still solid in the outfield.  With Daulton Varsho set to return,  Springer can now play in RF full time,  which is what the team prefers to keep his body healthy and fresh. 

6. three blue jays who have disappointed.

• Davis Schneider - The Blue Jays outfielder, who rode a hot streak and became infamous for his trademark  mustache, may have seen his 15 minutes of fame come to an end. It's rare for players drafted as late as Schneider was (28th round) to play even one game in the majors. Schneider got a full season's worth of games over parts of three seasons.  He only managed a single hit in 21 AB this season and his success against lefties eroded. He was demoted to AAA-ball on April 17.
• Richard Loveday - This was the biggest mistake the Blue Jays made for the opening day roster. The soft-throwing southpaw made two relief appearances, lost one of those games and had a brutal 21.60ERA when he was DFA'd.. if you're going to have a lower velocity,  you better be able to locate your pitches, which is something Loveday could not do. 
• Anthony Santander - the Blue Jays big off-season signing, Santander was expected to be a big power bat in the blue jays lineup. So far, he has just 3 home runs on the season and is hitting a mere .176 with 9RBI. quite frankly, he should swap places with Springer in the lineup because he is not producing enough to be the 3rd hitter in the batting order. 

7. GM Ross Atkins didn't have a great off- season, missing out on the big prize Juan Soto. He did land Santander, who certainly did his fair share of damage against the Blue Jays in Baltimore. Andres Gimenez gives the Blue Jays a solid infield defense, but he isn't expected to be a big contributer offensively. The big litmus test will be how the massive contract to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ages. The renovations to the stadium may have backfired in that it has led to fewer home runs. The outfield dimensions changed and now players have to hit it very well to get it over the higher wall in left-center. The Blue jays are definitely going through a tough stretch coming off a 1-5 road trip. At this point, they aren't going to give up on the new hitting coach, Davidp Popkins yet. I do like that the Blue jays are utilizing the sac bunt more often, but they need to take advantage when a pitcher is struggling. Case in point, the Blue Jays loaded the bases in the 1st inning of yesterday's double header and could not add to the run that already scored. If the Blue Jays have another rough week or two, I can see manager John Schneider being the fall guy. Likely they would bring in an interim manager and let the remainder of the season be a probationary period. 

8. The Blue Jays head to the West Coast and Seattle in a week and a half. If the Blue Jays fans in the crowd are noticeably diminished, it will be due to Donald Trump and his tariff/51st state threats and not how the Blue Jays are playing. 

9. Let's end things off for this random thoughts post by looking at how some of the ex- blue jays are playing.  Down in sunny LA, Teoscar Hernandez is off to a solid start with a .277 average, 8HR and 25RBI. He would be leading the Blue Jays in HR and RBI. Yusei Kikuchi is off to a rough start with an 0-4 record and a 4.31ERA. The Blue jays are set to face Kikuchi and the Angels in LA next week. Former Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is batting .140 with no home runs and 5RBI. Rays pitchers have had varying degrees of success as they get used to a new starting catcher calling the game. Former closer Jordan Romano is 0-1 with an ugly 13.50ERA and 1 save this season. Is he playing hurt?

10. Blue Jay of the month: Bo Bichette. The Blue Jays leadoff hitter is batting a solid .292 and leads the team with 13RBI. He makes things happen.  Leading of the double header yesterday,  Bichette forced a bad throw on an infield single, advanced to 3rd base on a wild pitch and scored on a sac fly.  

Ten random thoughts: a preview of the 2025 MLB season

 

With opening day 2025 around the corner, it's time to kick things off with a preview to what will be a crucial season for the Blue Jays. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette both set to hit free agency at the end of the season and Kevin Gausman  set to become a free agent after the 2026 season (Alejandro Kirk was set to become a free agent after the 2026 season as well, but the Blue Jays extended him for 5 more seasons yesterday, keeping him in a Blue Jays uniform through the 2031 season), it feels like the competitive window is quickly closing. Last season was a disappointment with the Blue Jays finishing below .500 for the first time since the 2019 season with a 74-88 record. The offence and bullpen were major issues that needed to be addressed. The Blue Jays responded by firing htting coach Guillermo Martinez and replacing him with former Twins hitting coach David Popkins. Additionally, Lou Iannotti was appointed as an assistant hitting coach, Graham Johnson will serve as bullpen coach and Sam Greene will be an assistant pitching coach. Don Mattingly will be a traditional bench coach and not an offensive coordinator. This blog post will look ahead to the season with injury concerns, key players to watch and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. The Blue Jays enter the 2025 season in good health. The biggest concern is wtth projected 5th starter Max Scherzer (2-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 9 starts in 2024) who has been dealing with a sore thumb, an issue that dates back to 2023. In the interim, the Blue Jays will likely go with Bowden Francis (8-5 with a 3.30ERA in 27 appearances (13 starts) last season) Another concern is with reliever Erik Swanson (2-2 with a 5.03ERA in 45 appearances last season), who is dealing with median nerve contraption. He was rushed back last season and his play suffered, so expect the team to be more cautious this time around. Reliever Zach Pop (2-4 with a 5.59ERA in 58 appearances last season) is experiencing some discomfort in his right elbow, hopefully it doesn't develop into season-ending tommy-john surgery.. Finally, righty Ryan Burr is recovering from right shoulder fatigue and will begin the season on the IL

The Blue Jays have several pitchers expected back mid-season from Tommy John surgery. Alek Manoah (1-2 with a 3.70ERA in 5 starts in 2024) was the first to receive tommy john surgery, June 17 last season. He took a huge step in his rehab, throwing off a mound for the first time since the surgery last week. Suffice to say, Manoah still has more to do in his rehab before he is back pitching in the majors, but it was still great to see him in the bullpen. Expect Manoah to return sometime around the all-star break, although he won't be rushed back. Another pitcher the team will be very cautious in his return from tommy john surgery is lefty prospect Rickey Tiedernann, who has dealt with numerous injuries since he was selected in the 3rd round of the 2021 MLB draft, including shoulder/biceps injuries in 2023 that limited him to 44 innings that year. Given how late in the season he had the surgery (end of July), it is doubtful he'll get into any big league games this season. If all goes well with his rehab, Tiedermann may start facing hitters in August and maybe he'll be ready to start a rehab in early September, but given his injury history and age, the team won't rush his rehab. Tiedermann is still largely expected to be a future ace in the Blue Jays rotation. Last, but not least, lefty prospect Brandon Barriera is making his way back from a combo tommy john and internal brace surgery from April 29, 2024. He may be game ready soonest, but his rehab may be complicated by the complexity of the surgery.

As far as position players are concerned, Daulton Varsho is the biggest question mark. While he got some reps at DH during spring training, he will start the season on the IL. This is a smart move to prevent further damage to his shoulder sliding into a base. The Blue Jays will also be keeping close tabs on Bo Bichette, who missed half the year in 2024 with a nagging calf injury that put him on the IL three times before a finger fracture ultimately ended his season, and catcher Alejandro Kirk, who will be handling a bigger workload behind the plate as the Blue Jays starting backstop. Expect the DH role to be a rotating position between Vlad, Bichette, Kirk and George Springer.

2. Whether he or the Blue Jays like it or not, until Vlad signs a contract, his free agent status will be a distraction this season. Vlad is the Blue Jays best player and someone every team would love in the middle of their lineup. Guerrero Jr. made it very clear that once spring training started, there would be no more contract talks until the end of the season. Could things change if Vlad struggles with the distraction and the Blue Jays are tanking? Possible, but I think it will make him want to test free agency even more because winning is going to be a factor and I am sure he is aware the Blue Jays competitive window may be closing and the cupboards are pretty bare in the minors. I think Vlad will be just fine statistically. Juan Soto did ok last year with the Yankees, hitting .288 with 41HR, 109RBI and a league leading 128 runs scored. In 2023, Shohei Ohtani hit .304, beltted 44HR and had 95RBI. I'm not going to delve into Ohtani's pitching stats since that's not a real comparison since Vlad doesn't pitch. Vlad's career year came in 2021 when he benefited from playing in minor league ballparks for half his home games due to the pandemic. Based on the past few seasons, I'd expect Vlad to hit around .300, belt 25-30HR and drive in around 100runs. Bo Bichette is good as gone as it seems like the Blue Jays are expecting to only be able to afford one of himself and Vlad and the Blue Jays haven't put any effort into signing him long-term. Maybe Vlad puts a bit of pressure on management and makes signing Bo long-term a condition of his deal. Blue Jays fans, enjoy the next 4 months because Bo and Vlad could well be traded at the deadline to avoid losing them both for nothing but some draft compensation.

3. The major change was to the offence where the Blue Jays will have a new hitting coach, David Popkins, with the hopes of generating more offense to support what's expected to be a strong rotation anchored by ace Jose Berrios, and an improved bullpen. Don Mattingly is back as a more traditional bench coach after a failed experiment as offensive coordinator, which just created a too many cooks in the kitchen scenario. Popkins should be the main voice in the room as hitting coach. Anthony Santander was an interesting signing, who will surely provide protection in the lineup for Vlad. Last season, Santander batted .235 with a career-highs  in HR (44) and RBI (102). The Blue Jays also traded for Andres Gimenez, who will provide some stability in the infield defensively and could well be a replacement for Bo Bichette if the Blue Jays los him to free agency in the off-season. Gimenez batted .252 with 9HR and 63RBI in 152 games and 583AB. Max Scherzer was another interesting signing that could prove sneaky good. There is precedence for 40 year-old pitchers to excel in the majors. Randy Johnson threw a perfect game at age 40, Roger Clemens won his last Cy Young at age 42 and Nolan Ryan was 44 when he threw his last no-hitter. Health is going to be a big factor to watch and at the moment, a sore thumb is causing concern for Scherzer. Even if he can't contribute on the field, he'll be a great mentor for the Blue Jays young pitchers like Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis. Finally, the Blue Jays will be turning to Jeff Hoffman, ex-prospect of the Blue Jays, to close out games after non-tendering Jordan Romano. The non-tendering of Romano was necessitated by concerns about his health. Hoffman was 3-3 with a 2.17ERA and 10 saves in 68 appearances last season.

4. Three key players to watch:

• Bo Bichette - Bichette is looking for a bounceback season in more ways than one. First and foremost, he will be hoping his leg woes are behind him. Bichette landed on the IL three times last season with a nagging calf injury and his season ended with a fractured finger during warm-ups. Statiscally, Bichette had his worst season since his rookie year, batting .225 with 4HR and 31RBI. Expect him to bounce back with a big year ahead of free agency.
• George Springer - The aging Blue Jays outfielder has been declining stastically since the Blue Jays inked him to a 6-year deal 4 years ago. He's still capable of making big plays in the outfield and will be platonning with Anthony Santander in the outfield. Springer will start in his customary leadoff spot to start the season, but on a short leash. The team can't afford the leadoff guy to be making an out more often than not. A good season for Springer would see him hitting closer to .250, hitting 20-25HR and driving in 70-75 runs. Being close to an automatic out won't cut it.
• Jose Berrios - The undisputed ace of the Blue Jays pitching staff, Jose Berrios could be a Blue Jay through the 2028 season, if he doesn't elect to opt out following the 2026 season. Berrios has developed into a strong starting pitcher, one of Pete Walker's best pet projects in his decade as pitching coach. Last season, Berrios was a solid 16-11 with a 3.60ERA over 32 starts (21 quality starts). The team will need him to lead by example and eat up those innings.

5. Three key series to watch

• March 27-30 vs. Baltimore Orioles - This is both the season opening and home-opening series and will be a good first test to start the season. Anthony Santander faces his old team right off the bat, and no doubt he'll be eager to have a big series to show the O's what they will be missing from their lineup. Jose Berrios makes the opening day start for the 3rd time in 4 years. Andres Gimenez makes his Blue Jays debut at 2b. Could we get a Daulton Varsho sighting at DH? He won't be ready to play in the outfield, but the Blue Jays might want his lefty bat in the lineup.
• August 8-10 @ LA Dodgers - The Blue Jays head to sunny LA for a great measuring stick series against the defending world Series champs, who appear even deeper after adding lefty Blake Snell to their rotation, They also won the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes and added solid relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. Teo reupped for 3 years and Michael Conforto will bring further depth to an already stacked outfield. Shohei Ohtani should be back to being a double threat as a DH and pitcher. He has already started pitching off a mound following a year off of pitching due to a second tommy john surgery. The Blue Jays could look vastly different if Vlad and Bo Bichette are moved for prospects ahead of pending free agency.
• September 15-18 @ Tampa Bay Rays - If all goes well this season, the Blue Jays should be in the mix for a wild card spot, making this mid-September series at the Rays temporary home at the Yankees spring training facility with Tropicana Field out of commission thanks to Hurricane Milton, a key series against the always stingy Rays, who will surely be in the wild card mix. These two sqauds face off again the following week in Toronto.

6. There are 2 rule changes coming for the 2025 MLB season. First, the infield shift rule where there must be 2 infielders on eitther side of 2nd base has been tweaked so the batter will be awarded 1st base automatically if there is an illegal defense on the play. This should benefit lefty batters who teams had used the shift against most frequently. The second rule change involves a scenario where there are runners on the corners with 2 outs and a ground ball is hit with the defending team opting for the forceout at 2nd to end the inning. Teams, in particular the Yankees, were deploying the strategy of running through the bag at 2nd base like it's 1st base where you can run past the bag. The runner would still be out for leaving the baseline, but the run would count. Now, the run won't count if replay shows the runner abandoned the baseline before the run scored

While it won't be implemented for the 2025 season, Robo umps and the ability to challenge balls and strikes was tested during spring training. Robo umps and the ability to challenge balls and strikes was used in the minor leagues last season and could be in the majors as soon as the 2026 season. Traditionalists will argue that renoving the human element of umpires calling balls and strikes is a step too far. However, a roboump system should be more accurate in the long run and strike zones will be more consistent and won't be impacted by the positioning of the home plate umpire. Also, some of the more extreme framers behind the plate, such as Alejandro Kirk, can screw up the umpires ability to accurately make the right call. My only question is whether movement of the glove will impact the laser system. That is why there needs to be a challenge system in place.

7. My regular season awards predictions:

• AL MVP - Bobby Witt Jr. - Was right behind last year's AL MVP Aaron Judge in most of the offensive statistical categories, who lost some of his protection in the lineup with Juan Soto signing with the Mets and Giancarlo Stanton's season in doubt with severe elbow injuries. Look for Witt Jr. to take the MLB by storm and dethrone the current MVP.
• NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani - the Japanese phenom is going to continue to be a dominant force at the top of a lethal looking Dodgers lineup. Ohtani created and is the only member of the 50-50 club and is showing no signs of slowing down. Oh yeah, and he'll be back on the bump this season and he's no slouch as a pitcher either.
• AL Cy Young - Jose Berrios - the Blue Jays ace is going to benefit from having veteran Max Scherzer to mentot him and he will continue to dominate in his starts, giving the Blue Jays a chance to win every 5 days. Berrios was second in the AL in wins last season (16) and had 21 qua
• NL Cy Young - Zach Wheeler - he was second in most of the pitching statistical categories behind Chris Sale. Look for him to have a huge year
• AL rookie of the year - Righty Kumer Rocker - the 3rd overal pick of the 2022 MLB entry draft, Rocker looks poised to step into the major leagues after excelling in the minors the last 2 seasons (2023 was a wipeout due to tommy john surgery). It will help having easy opponents in the Mariners and the Angels 
• NL rookie of the year - Roki Sasaki - the big international free agent of the off-season, his deadly splitter that behaves differently to right handed vs. left-handed batters is going to leave hitters baffled.  

8. Look for the Dodgers to repeat as world series champs against an upstart Guardians team that gave the Yankees fits in last year's ALCS

9. Speaking of the Yankees, they'll be allowed to have facial hair (provided its neat and cut short, so no Justin Turner beard) after they nixed their policy on no facial hair or sideburns. This is a welcome change that I'm sure the players will enjoy and embrace.

10. Finslly, let's end things with a discussion of our favorite Blue Jays opening momeents. One of mine is Tony Batista walking off the Royals in 2000. How about Shannon Stewarr finishing a triple shy of the cycle the following year. Then there was the 16 inning marathon to start the 2012 season in Cleveland. Weigh in with your favourite Blue Jays opening day moment below.

Ten Random Thoughts: A review of the 2024 season and a look ahead to the off-season.

 

Finally, we have reached the end of the 2024 season, one that could be the end of an era. The final tale  of the tape: 17 series wins (4 series sweeps), 29 series losses (swept 5 times) and 4 series splits. The Blue Jays took a big gamble that 2023 was an anomaly and the team would be better offensively after shuffling the deck with the hitting coaches, making Don Mattingly offesive coordinator and adding some assistants alongside Guillermo Martinez. The team struck out in free agency on signing Shohei Ohtani (who opted to remain in the LA area, signing with the Dodgers) and also on trading for Juan Soto. Instead, they were banking on the players having bounceback years with the additions of Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa). Unfortunately, that didn't come to fruition. Perhaps most surprisingly, Bo Bichette, the Blue Jays best and most consistent hitter, had perhaps the worst season of his careerm with career lows in most of the major statistical categories and a lost season where he only played 81 games due to a nagging calf issue. The pitching, which was masking the pitiful offense last year, regressed, both the starting pitching and the bullpen. There were some shining lights in a dim season (Bowden Francis was excellent the last 2 months of the season, including 2 no-hit bids that died in the 9th inning; Vlad had his best season since 2020, Ernie Clement was solid and Alejandro Kirk showed he can handle a bigger role behind the plate.) August 25th was a game that will go down in MLB history with Danny Jansen becoming the first player in history to play for both teams in the same game after the June 26 game was suspended in the top of the 2nd with Jansen at the plate and Jansen was subsequently traded at the deadline to the Red Sox.(Oh yeah, and Jansen batted for the Red Sox in the bottom half of the inning.) In this final random thoughts post of 2024, we'll look back at the season, changes that need to be made and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB.

1. As per usual, let's start with the injuries and the impact they had on the season. The most significant injury was the pitching elbow with Alek Manoah undergoing Tommy John surgery, closer Jordan Romano  needing surgery to relieve nerve issues and prospect pitchers Brandon Barriera and Rickey Tiederman both underwent tommy john surgery. This is going to impact the rotation going forward with both Manoah and Tiederman not expected to return until mid-season (Manoah could potentially be ready to return around the all-star break while Tiederman could potentially miss the entire 2024 season since he didn't have the surgery until the end of July). The Blue Jays are going to need another starter. Manoah finished the 2024 season 1-2 with a 3.70ERA over 5 starts. Kevin Gausman missed his first turn of the season dealing with a shoulder issue. He didn't look like himself in many of his starts, so one has to wonder if he was playing through the injury or something else was bothering him. Gausman was 12-11 with a 4.09ERA over 28 startsThere has to be concerns with Bo Bichette, who missed significant time with a calf injury and went on the IL three separate times before getting shut down for a couple of months. He definitely came back too soon on at least one of the IL stints. Oh yeah, and Bichette came back for one game and then fractured a finger during defensive drills in warm-up. Bichette is going to be a key player next season and needs to be at full health. Bichette finished the season with a .222 average with 4HR and 30 RBI over 80 games and 308AB. Injuries will happen over the course of the season and the Blue Jays need to have viable options on the bench and in the minors.

2. Pitching was a big issue all season, primarily with the bullpen unable to hold leads. It is the biggest off-season need. Tim Mayza was among the worst on the team, going 0-1 with an 8.03ERA in 35 appearances before being DFA'd and eventually trraded to the Yankees. Chad Green, who was the closer once Romano went down was solid until September when he blew three consecutive saves. At this point, Green, Romano, Genesis Cabrera and Branden Little have earned spots in the bullpen in 2025. They need to find 3-4 relievers that can be relied upon to keep the score close, tied or the Blue Jays in the lead. Management cannot assume an anomally and they shouldn't be relying on waiver claims or players that were DFA'd by other teams since there is a reason why teams dropped those players.

3. The last time the Blue Jays finished a season below .500 was the last year for the core of Russell Martin, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. That off-season saw major changes in coaching with manager John Gibbons being let go. There needs to be significant changes this off-season too. The first move should be letting Ross Atkins go and maybe Mark Shapiro too if he is unwilling to fire his friends. In terms of the coaches, Guillermo Martinez, Pete Walker, Don Mattingly and Pete Walker all need to be let go. The offence, or lack thereof, and pitching (mainly the bullpen) were the single biggest reasons why this season went south. Walker, who has been the Blue Jayss pitching coach since 2012 has done some remarkable work over the years, turning around the careers of Robbie Ray and Jose Berrios, but, the team needs a neeew voice for the pitcher. Every coach has an expiry date where their ideas  beome stale. There have been numerous occasions this year where he has gone out for a mound visit to no effect. It's interesting too that Yusei Kikuchi has improved in his brief time in Houston since their pitching coach tweaked his pitch use. Martinez should have been let go at the end of last season, but Atkins chose to increase the number of hitting coaches in the dugout to assust Martinez. That predictably failed since there were too many voices in the dugout. As for manager John Schneider, he should be given another season, but on a short leash. The Blue Jays championship windoe is quickly closing and the team needs to not just make the playoffs, but win a round or two to entice one of Vlad and Bo Bichette to sign a long-term deal. It's already going to be a tough sell with the current state of the team and the minor league system

4. Three Blue Jays who impressed this season:

• Bowden Francis - It was a tale of two seasons for Bowden Francis, who came out of spring training as the 5th starter with Alek Manoah rehabbing an injury. After three subpar starts, Francis was relegated to the bullpen, then optioned to AAA-ball for a couple of months. When he was recalled, he worked out of the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever. He made a start July 29th and pitched well, throwing into the 6th inning. He joined the rotation for good August 7th. Francis caught fire with seven quality starts in a row. He shouldn't be handed any kind of role next season since this could well be a prolonged hot streak and teams will review the videos and adjust. He'll likely be in the rotation in 2025. Francis finished the season 8-5 with a 3.30ERA in 27 appearances (13 starts)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - The first of the big three prospects (Vlad, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio) to make their MLB debut in 2019, Vlad was the team's best player. Highlights of his season include: a 23-game hit streak, a new career high in hits (199), 3rd best career total in HR (30), 2nd best career RBI total (103) and highest career batting average (.323). He also knocked in his 500th career RBI. The Blue Jays must sign him to a decade long deal before he can test the free agent market because his value is only going to go up.
• Jose Berrios - Acquired in a trade with the Twins in 2021, Berrios had his best season in a Blue Jays uniform, going 16-0 with a solid 3.38ERA over 31 starts. He pitched 6 or more innings 22 times and had 21 quality starts. He'll be the ace of the staff for the next several seasons since he is signed through the 2028 season, although he can opt out after the 2026 season. Berrios has been the teams most consistent pitcher this season and really should have an extra 2-3 wins if not for the inept offense.

5. Three Blue Jays who disappointed this season:

• Tim Mayza - Tim Mayza had a disastrous season, going 0-1 with an 8.03 ERA in 35 appearances and did not record an out in the last two appearances in a Blue Jays uniform. He was better as a Yankee, albeit after a month in the minors to work through things, going 0-1 with a 3.94ERA. A big constributing factor was his velocity being down, thereby making his pitches more hittable. One also has to wonder if there's an issue with his arm again - he missed the 2020 pandemic season due to Tommy John surgery he had in September 2019. This Blue Jays fan is rooting for his success
• Cavan Biggio - The second of the big three (Vlad, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio) to make their MLB debut in 2019, Biggio has taken a ton of criticism for his lack of offense and his ability to play multuple positions likely factored into why he was kept on the team until June 10 and subsequently traded 4 days later to the Dodgers. The emergence of Addison Barger, Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement meant that Biggio's verastility wasn't as big of a plus. Biggio hit .200 with 2HR and 9RBI over 44 games and 110AB for the Blue Jays this season. It should be noted that the Dodgers released him 2 months later, he was then picked up and traded by the Giants (without playing a game) to the Braves, his current team. It will be interesting to see where he plays in 2025.
• Bo Bichette - finally, there's Bo Bichette, the second of the big three (Vlad, Bichette and Biggio) to make their MLB debut in 2019. It was Bichette's worst and most frustrating season, both statistically and injury-wise. Going into the 2024 season, Bichette was arguably the Blue Jays best, and certainly most consistent hitter. Bichette hit .225 with 4HR and 31RBI over 81 games and 311AB. He also struggled mightilty with a calf injury that put him on the IL three times, the third stint lasting almost 2 months. The cruel baseball gods struck again and after all that hard work rehabbing the injury, Bichette saw his seaaon come to a crushing end with a fractured finger after one game. First off-season priority for Bichette will be to get back to full health. Second priority is to get himself together mentally and physically because he will be a key bat in next year's lineup.

6.  Here are some Blue Jays based awards:

• team MVP - Guerrero Jr. - besides having his best statistical season since 2021 - batting .323 with 30HR and 103RBI in 159 games and 616AB, Vlad took a leadership role, highlighted prior to a recent game where he went up to a struggling Davis Schneider and gave him some tips on his batting stance. Vlad is the top priority for players that must be signed. If the team isa unable to sign him to a long-term deal in the off-season and the team struggles, they might as well blow it up and start from scratch with fans enduring some pain for a few years.
• unsung hero - Ernie Clement - the scrappy utility man had a fine season, batting .263 with 12HR and 51RBI over 139 games and 464AB. His versatility in the infield and ability to play multiple positions will make him a useful asset going forward and should give him plenty of playing time next season.
• best pitcher -  Jose Berrios - Ever since a rough 2022 season, Berrios has been the leader of the pitching staff, giving the blue Jays a chance to win mostly every five days. He was 16-11 with a 3.60ERA over 32 starts (21 quality starts) and 22 times pitching 6 or more innings. Berrios will be a key part of the rotation for the next several years and will be one of the players the team will build around.
• best prospect - reliever Brandon Litlle, who was the Blue Jays most effective lefty out of the bullpen, going 1-2 with a 3.74ERA in 49 appearances. He's one of the relievers I would keep going forward.

    

7. Let's look at who will likely prevail in the major league awards

• AL MVP - Aaron Judge, who has the opportunity to reach 60HR for the second time in 3 season and leads the AL in most of the important statistical categories (HR, RBI, on-base% and is right behind Vlad in batting average. No question Vladdy will get some MVP votes, but Judge will win the award.
• NL MVP - the race for this award was over pretty much by the all-star break. I mean, you may never see another player like Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, who's efforts this season were amplified by the fact he is recovering from Tommy John surgery that kept him off the pitching mound all season. Ohtani has a shot at creating a 60-60 club (60HR and 60 stolen bases), although more likely it'll be a 55-55 club. Oh yeah and he also has a shot at becoming the 18th player in MLB history with 400 total bases. He must love being in a Dodgers lineup where there are other dangerous hitters. With the Angels, Ohtani was the best hitter and often was intentionally walked. Can't wait to see him do some damage in the postseason. 
• AL Cy Young - Tarik Skubal - The Tigers southpaw is a majot reason why the Tigers are going to be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Skubal was 18-3 with a solid 2.39ERA in 31 starts, 22 of them being quality starts. 
• NL Cy Young - Chris Sale, who had a comeback season after injury-riddled seasons 2020-2021 and a subpar season. It appeared that Sale's career was nearing the bottom of the 9th, but instead he was 18-3 with 2.38ERA over 29 starts (18 quality starts) and an NL-leading 225 strikeouts. He's a big reason why  the Braves are right there for a wild card spot, despite losing star Ronald Acuna Jr. to an ACL tear. The Blue Jays should kick the tires on acquiring this veteran lefty.
• AL Rookie of the year SP Luis Gil, was in the Yankees rotation due to Gerritt Cole not being ready to start the season. Gil went 15-6 with a 3.27 ERA over 28 starts (11 quality starts

• NL Rookie of the year - On a bad Padres team, Padres CF Jackson Merrill was a bright light in a dim room, batting .29 with 24HR and 89 RBI over 154 games and 547AB
• AL Manager of the year - AJ Hinch Tigers - after a decade long hiatus, Hinch and the Tigers will experience postseason action for the first time in a decade, They'll be looking to win a round (and game) for the first time since 2013.
• dishonorable mention: Paul GrifolERA ove and Grady Sizemore who are running a White Sox team that will break a modern day record for losses (are at 120 losses with one more series left)
• NL Manager of the year - Carlos Mendoza of the Mets, who are on the verge of making the playoffs after a poor season in 2023 when they had a 75-87 record despite a solid roster (at least on paper. Gibby deserves some credit for the turnaround too as the bench coach. If the Mets go far, Ross Atkins should take it as his cue to resign.

8. The playoff teams are pretty much locked in, save for the last two wild card spots, which will be settled in a Braves-Mets doubleheader with the 2 teams snagging the last 2 spots in the event of a split. If either team sweeps the double header, the Dianondbacks will be playoff bound. As far as the AL WC round goes, I got the Astros over the Tigers and the Orioles over the Royals. The World series will be the Dodgers over the Astros in 6.

9. Finally, let's look ahead at free agency and who the Blue Jays should be targeting and where their needs are. The Blue Jays have just one pending free agent, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who did a solid job in his brief time with the Blue Jays, serving as the bulk pitcher on bullpen days in September. He'll be highly coveted, but the team should make a solid offer for him. The biggest needs the Blue Jays have are a starting pitcher, 2-3 relievers, a backup catcher, an everyday 3B and maybe another outfielder in case Daulton Varsho isn't ready. The Blue Jays should target Danny Jansen (batted .205 with 9HR and 24RBI over 91 games and 278AB) or Austin Barnes (batted .264 with 1HR and 11RBI over 54 games and 140AB) to platoon with Alejandro Kirk. Righty Kyle Hendricks (4-12 with a 5.94ERA over 29 games (24 starts) would be a solid choice as an extra starter. A few relievers the team should look at are Yarbrough (5-2 with a 3.19ERA over 44 appearances), Ryne Stanek (7-3 with a 4.88ERA and 7 saves over 63 appearances and Clay Holmes (3-5 with a 3.14ERA and 30 saves over 67 appearances. For the hot corner, Alex Bregman (batted .266 with 26HR and 75RBI over 145 games and 581AB) should get a contract offer.  I'd love to see the Blue Jays bring back Teo (batted .272 with 33HR and 99RBI over 153 games and 585AB), and add Anthony Santander (batted .235 with 44HR and 102RBI and 155 games and 595AB) or Max Kepler (batted.253) with 8HR and 42RBI over 106 games and 368AB). Regardles of who is signed, the Blue Jays can't do what they did last off-season and put all their eggs in one basket. They need to be making offers to several players and have backup plans if their first choices sign elsewhere.

10. Blue Jay of the year

• Vlad, the Blue Jays present and possibly future over the next decade, had his second best year statistically and voiced his desire to remain in Toronto over the long haul. The Blue Jays need to get him to sign on the dotted line before he regrets that desire should the team fail to entice some solid free agents to come norrth of the border.

Ten random thoughts: A recap of the 1st half of the 2024 season

 

It was supposed to be a season of redemption, but sadly it has missed the mark - badly. The 2023 season ended with another wild card sweep, this time at the hands of the AL Central champs Minnesota Twins. The offence failed when it mattered most, John Schneider and the decision makers made a colossal error of judgment by removing a dealing ace Jose Berrios in the 4th inning. Predictably, the Twins got a couple of runs off reliever Yusei Kikuchi and that would be all they would need against a Blue Jays offence that struggled mightily much of the season and the playoffs to drive in runners in scoring position. The offseason saw a restructuring of the offence with Don Mattingly given the title of offensive coordinator (what are the Blue Jays playing football?) and minor league hitting coach Matt Hague promoted to the big club with most of the team: Bo, Vlad, Cavan, Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwirz (started in AAA but was promoted to the big club in June) and Ernie Clement all expected to play prominent roles in the lineup. Carlos Febles was hired to replace retiring 3rd base coach Luis Rivera. The Blue Jays tried to land the big fish in free agency, but Shohei Ohtani opted to stay in LA, joining the Dodgers after 6 seasons with the Angels, who missed the playoffs in every season. They also missed out on Juan Soto, who was traded to the Yankees. Instead, the Blue Jays banked on last season being a blip for the offence. They added veteran bats Daniel Vogelbach, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner and brought back CF  Kevin Kiermaier. This was going to be an important year for the Blue Jays with their competitive window potentially closing at the end of the 2025 season when Vlad, Bo, Chris Bassitt, IKF, Chad Green, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera and Jordan Romano all set to hit free agency. Yusei Kikuchi, Turner, Danny Jansen, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards are all free agents after this season.

Alas, it was more of the same for the offence, which has been in the bottom of the league in virtually every offensive category. Heading into the Canada Day game, the Blue Jays didn't have a single batter hitting over .300 (Vlad was closest with a batting average of .390). Vlad's team leading 13HR put him tied for 37th in the MLB, tied for 22nd in the AL. Bo Bichette, consistently the Blue Jays best hitter, was batting a career low .234 with 4HR and 28RBI. Justin Turner, who had a hot April, has since cooled off. Vogelbach was DFA'd after hitting a paltry .186 with 1HR and 8RBI over 31 games and 70AB. Cavan Biggio faced the same fate a few days prior, batting .200 with 2HR and 9RBI in 44 games and 110AB. The pitching, which largely kept the Blue Jays in games last season, has not been as good and there are injury concerns with Alek Manoah done for the year with Tommy John surgery and Jordan Romano's future this season up in the air with his own elbow issues. We'll discuss all that and more as we look back at the unofficial first half of the season. Here are ten random thoughts from the 1st half of the season.

1. As per usual, we'll start with the injuries. The biggest injury was to Alek Manoah, who is done for the season after Tommy John surgery June 17. It's unfortunate how his season ended since Manoah was banking on a comeback season after a disastrous 2023 season that saw demoted to the Florida development league at one point and he ended the season of Angels outfielder Taylor Ward on a fastball to his face. The signs of injury trouble for Manoah began early in spring training when he didn't bounce back well from his first and only appearance. He missed the first month of the season and made just five starts before letting go a fateful final pitch that will see Manoah gone until the middle of the 2025 season. Manoah finished the season 1-2 with a 3.70ERA over 5 starts. Closer Jordan Romano also experienced injury issues in spring training. Romano missed the first two week of the season with a sore elbow. He was placed on the 15 day IL June 1st, 2 days after his 15th appearance of the season. Romano tried to ramp up twice in June, only to experience more soreness. He had surgery July 2nd to deal with an impinged nerve in his throwing elbow and will miss at least the next 6 weeks. Romano is 1-2 with a 6.59ERA and 8 saves in 15 appearances. 

Last year's setup man Erik Swanson also experienced elbow issues in spring trainng. He came back around the same time as Romano and also struggled to find his form. Swanson was demoted to AAA-ball at the end of May and was 1-2 with a 9.22ERA in 17 appearances. Kevin Gausman also had an abbreviated spring training due to soreness in his throwing shoulder, although he made his first start of the season maybe a couple of days later than he would have. It has been an up and down season for Gausman, who has the Blue Jays only complete game of the season. He got a ton of strikeouts last season and has regressed a bit this season and not been as effective as last season. I still wonder if he is maybe playing through something. Gausman is 7-8 with a 4.50ERA over 19 starts this season. Last season, the Blue Jays largely avoided a significant injury to a position player. Danny Jansen seems to have found a solution to keeping his hands healthy, although he started the season on the IL with a broken hand from a hit by pitch. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is currently on the IL with a knee injury suffered while stretching prior to a game on the Canada day long weekend. At first, it was feared he would miss the remainder of the season, but the MRI results came back with a more encouraging result. IKF is expected to miss several weeks as he recovers from a sprained knee that will not require surgery. His injury will impact the lineup and infield significantly since he was the backup SS and played the hot corner and 2B as well. Ernie Clement will get the bulk of the games at the hot corner and SS when Bo Bichette needs a day off. Spencer Horwitz will  platoon with Davis Schneider at 2B. In the next couple of weeks, pending free agents, such as Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier will be held out of the lineup if they are nursing a minor ailment or there is a trade pending.

2. There are obvious candidates who should be let go ASAP. It was a huge mistake to restructure the hitting department by adding an offensive coordinator role on top of 2 hitting assistants AND a hitting coach. The players simply have too many voices and opinions to consider when they are at bat. The Mariners also created an offensive coordinator role and got rid of it when their team struggled to hit. The Blue Jays need to eliminate the offensive coordinator role, fire Guillermo Martinez and have just one assistant coach. There's been a lot of talk that maybe the team should also remove Ipads from the dugout, but I think it can be a useful tool for players to get a quick scouting report on the pitcher just before they go to the on deck circle. The next hitting coach should be an established ex-big leaguer, such as Dante Bichette. Matt Hague should be retained as the assistant hitting coach since he's done great work in the minor leagues and the majority of the current lineup is familiar and comfortable with his wisdom.

Which brings us to manager John Schneider, who was hired after a brutal west coast swing just prior to the all-star break two years ago. That year's team squeaked into the playoffs and was swept in the wild card round by the Rays. This year's team is largely playing a lost season. There have certainly been mistakes made and likely the 2025 season will be under a new manager. Schneider should be let go and an interim manager brought in, maybe promoting Don Mattingly to the role. I don't think the interim manager should become the permanent manager. This team needs a new voice, a veteran voice from outside the organization to lead this team in what could be the last chance in this current window with Vlad, Bo Bichette Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano and IKF all set to hit free agency. Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards hit free agency after this season.

If the Blue Jays are going to clean house, Pete Walker needs to be included as well. No question Walker has worked wonders over the last decade he's been the pitching coach, turning the careers of Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios around. Hired to be the pitching coach in the 2012 offseason, Walker has been a constant and steady voice for the pitchers. However, every coach has a shelf life and Walker needs to be replaced by a new voice. The pitching has regressed from last season and there have been several occassions this season where the opposing team has scored immediately after a mound visit. The Blue Jays' pitching stats are bottom of the league. I think the team can turn to an ex-Blue Jay to replace Walker and it should be Tom Henke or Duane Ward.

3. Three Blue Jays who impressed

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Signed as a international free agent the day after Canada Day 2015 (fitting since he was born in Canada when his dad played for the Expos, Vlad Jr. has been the Blue Jays best hitter this season, leading the team in HR (13). RBI (52) and hits (102). Vlad is also 2nd on the team in batting average, hitting .295. No doubt the team will make every effort to sign Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal before he hits free agency, but he will command top dollars to re-sign. Guerrero Jr. will be the team's representative in the all-star break.
• Jose Berrios - Acquired in a trade with the Twins at the deadline in 2021 that sent prospect Simeon Woods-Richardson, Jose Berrios has emerged as the Blue Jays ace. He is one of Pete Walkers' best pet projects. Berrios has gone from a pitcher who struggled in 2022, giving up the most hits and earned runs, to a pitcher who can be relied on to give his team a chance to win most nights. There should be some concern that he has given up the most home runs and hit the most batters, but he has 12 quality starts and has pitched 7 or more innings 6 times. Berrios is going to be in the Blue Jays rotation for the next 5 seasons and likely as the ace the next couple of seasons.
• Yimi Garcia - Currently on the disabled list with a sore elbow, but expected back soon, Yimi Garcia has been the best of the bunch out of the bullpen. None of the relievers have been stellar, but Garcia has been the most reliable. He is 3-0 with a solid 2.57ERA and 5 saves in 27 appearances this season. With Romano done until at least mid-August, Garcia will be the closer for the next while, unless a team picks him up before the deadline, which is possible if Garcia returns from the IL soon and proves he is healthy.

4. Three Blue Jays who disappointed

• Tim Mayza - What a disaster of a season it was for Tim Mayza, who was DFA'd June 29th after 2 straight appearances where he couldn't retire a batter. Drafted by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2013 MLB draft, Mayza made his MLB debut 4 years later and quickly became a reliable lefty in the bullpen, taking the role of setup man. He missed the 2020 season after Tommy John surgery September 2019. He returned to the majors at the beginning of the 2021 season and was outstanding last sesason, going 3-1 with a solid 1.52 ERA and 1 save in 69 appearances. This season, he struggled with his location and his velocity was down. Mayza was 0-1 with a bloated 8.03ERA in 35 appearances. You have to wonder if he was playing through some kind of injury. No doubt the physical will be a key factor for any team that signs him. Hopefully his career is not over.
• Cavan Biggio - Drafted by the Blue Jays in the 5th round of the 2016 MLB entry draft, Biggio was the second of the big 3 minor league grads (Bo Bichette and Vlad being the others) to make their big league debut. Biggio was very much a utility player, playing mostly 2nd base, but also getting playing time in RF, 1B and 3B. Biggio certainly wasm't a player who was going to hit for average, but he had his share of big hits over the years in Toronto. This season, he batted .200 with 2HR and 9RBI over 44 games and 110AB. He was DFA'd June 7 and traded 5 days later to the Dodgers for cah considerations and a minor league pitcher. He was deemed expendable because there were other players who could play multiple positions and had more years of control.
• Bo Bichette - This is been the most shocking regression this season. Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2016 entry draft and the last of the big 3 (Vlad and Cavan Biggio being the other two) to make their 2019 debut, Bo Bichette has been the Blue Jays best hitter. He has led the team in hits 2021-2023 (and the league 2021 and 2022), batting average in 2023 (he was second on the team in batting average 2021 and 2022) and was 2nd on the team in RBI in both 2022 and 2023 behind Vlad. This season, Bichette is batting .222 with 4HR and 30RBI over 76 games and 297AB. He seems like a player not happy with the situation he is in and will almost certainly bolt in free agency next year. Bichette has been dealing with a calf strain that cost him a 10-day IL stint. The Blue Jays should be listening to trade offers on him this trade deadline and in the off-season since he will likely fetch the biggest return. It's unlikely he'll be dealt until next trade deadline since it appears the brain trust wants one last run at a championship with this core.

5. It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Blue Jays will be sellers at the trade deadline, likely dealing pending free agents such as Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards. Jansen, Kikuchi and Turner will likely fetch the biggest return, although Kikuchi's recent starts have been subpar, but a team might see a role in the bullpen for him. Garcia (due to IL stint and injury concerns) and Kiermaier (performance) are likely to remain Blue Jays after the deadline. The championship window is about to close wih Bo Bichette, Vlad, closer Jordan Romano, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green all free agents after next season. It is likely that Ross Atkins will be let go in the off season, especially if any trades made in the next month bomb. As it stands, the team is going to have a difficult time attracting decent free agents who are looking to win now.

6. The most surprising successful teams this year have been the Seattle Mariners, who are in the AL West lead and are 49-43, but their lead over the Astros is just 2 games. The Cleveland Gaurdians are also leading the AL Central and have the 2nd best record at 56-32 on the strength of the league's best bullpen. On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants, who made big free agent signings, inking Matt Chapman and Blake Snell to contracts, are 2nd last in the NL West with a 43-49 record, although they are just 3.5 games back of the 3rd wild card spot. Just ahead of them are the Arizona Diamondbacks, sporting a .500 record after 90 games after finishing as the NLCS runners up last season/

7. The MLB award winners based on the first half of the season should be as follows:

• AL MVP - Aaron Judge - leads the AL in HR (34) and RBI (85) and is 4th in batting average (.306). He's been the best hitter in the league the last 2 seasons and has a shot at over 60 home runs again. 
• NL MVP - Marcell Ozuna. With Ronald Acuna Jr. done for the year with an ACL tear, Ozuna is a big part of why the Atlanta Braves are still 2nd in the AL East. He leads the NL in RBI (77) and is 2nd in HR (26) and 9th in batting average (.303). Shohei Ohtani has had a strong 1st half too, but it's difficult to award a full-time DH the league MVP award unless they dominate the stats and he hasn't done that to this point. The NL MVP is an open race and will be decided in the 2nd half.
• AL Cy Young - Seth Lugo of the KC Royals, who has an 11-4 record with a sparkling 2.48ERA and 1.09WHIP and 116 strikeouts in 20 starts. Huge reason why the Royals are within striking distance of the 3rd WC spot.
• NL Cy Young - Chris Sale of the Braves, who should be in line for comeback player of the year after struggling with injuries the past few seasons. Moving to the NL for the first time in his career, Sale has been dominant, going 13-3 with a solid 2.70ERA in 18 starts and 140 strikeouts. 
• AL Rookie of the year: - Pitcher Luis Gil of the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have had injury trouble in the rotation with Gerritt Cole missing the first 2 months of the season with an elbow injury. Luis Gil has stepped up and put together a solid 10-5 record with a 3.17ERA over 19 starts, Gil has also struck out 118 batters. The down side is he has walked a league-high 49 batters.
• NL Rookie of the year: - Jackson Merrill of the Padres - he is batting a solid .278 (2nd in NL among rookies), with 12 HR (1st among rookies in NL) and 46RBI (1st among rookies in NL) in 95 games and 331AB. He's simply dominating the rookies and getting lots of at-bats since the Padres have him near the top of the order in the lineup.
• AL manager of the year - Scott Servais of the Mariners. Seattle is a team that has gone from a team that finished 3rd in the AL West last season and missed the playoffs by 2 games to a team leading the AL West, albeit with a dangerous Astros team nipping at their heals recently. The Mariners were not expected to do well this season after losing Teoscar Hernandez . Things are a bit tougher with Julio Rodriguez now hurt. If they hold off the Astros and win the division, it will be a miracle.
• NL Manager of the year - Oliver Marmol of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has taken a team that finished dead last in the NL Central to 2nd in the NL Central and in the NL wild card hunt. The Cardinals finished 2023 20 games under .500 and are currently 6 games over .500 with a 48-42 record.

8. It's time to rethink how pitchers are developed and how they train. There are too many pitchers who have been dealing with elbow injuries lately and it is hurting the game. Alek Manoah is done until 2025 after tommy john surgery a couple of weeks ago Baltimore is without lefty John Means and righty Tyler Wells, who both had TJ surgery this season. Pitchers are no longer throwing 300 innings but they are throwing harder and using different pitches like the curve ball, putting a lot of strain on their UCLs. Teams are putting inning limits on prospects, but that doesn't seem to be having  much effect on the problem. Case in point, the Blue Jays top prospect Rickey Tiederman has battled ebow issues the past 2 seasons. There needs to be a big rethink on developing pitchers and it needs to start in little league. Maybe there needs to be a speed limit on how hard a pitcher can throw and that should extend from little league to the big leagues. The off-season throwing programs need to be adjusted to include mandatory rest periods before pitchers can begin throwing after the season. Time to form a committee that involves players, coaches, medical professionals and other important reps to tackle this important issue for the good of the game.

9. Finally, the MLB draft is this week. A big criticism of the current management regime is the deterioration of the minor league system and viable prospects that could be used to acquire players that are MLB-ready and could shorten any rebuild. Some intriguimg prospects currently in the system are Ernie Clement, who is batting .244 with 6HR and 23RBI in 74 games and 190AB, Davis Schneider (batting .217 with 10HR and 36RB in 86 games and 258AB), Spencer Horwitz (batting .324 with 4HR and 11RBI in 30 games and 102AB), Addison Barger (batting .150 with 0HR and 4RBI in 20 games and 60AB), and Leo Jimenez, who has made a great impression in a 8 game cup of tea, batting .364 with 1RBI). Lefty Brandon Little has probably been the most effective lefty in the bullpen. He had a couple of rough appearances so his era (4.50) is elevated but he has consistently been getting batters out. Rickey Tiederman has the potential to be an asset if he can stay healthy. It's very concerning he left a rehab start with forearm tightness recently. Hopefully the end result isn't tommy john surgery that would set his development back for a couple of years. Another concerning prosect is outfielder Orlevis Martinez, who was suspended 80 games for taking a banned substance he claimed he got from a fertility clinic. You have to know what you are putting in your body as a professional athlete. The draft is a huge week for a baseball team as it brings fresh players into the fold, who, if developed properly, can be the next stars of the game. Here's hoping the Blue Jays find a diamond in the rough this week because this team needs to fill the proverbial cupboard because right now it is empty.

10. Blue Jay of the 1st half: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's simply been the Blue Jays best hitter and the team needs to be listening to offers for him at the trade deadline. Sure, he said publicly that he wants to remain a Blue Jay for life, but what do you expect him to say? Fans better enjoy the next year or so of Vladdy being a Blue Jay because if the team is in the same position next year, Guerrero Jr. is going to fetch the biggest return in a trade. 

Ten Random thoughts: a look back at the off-season that was (or not...) and a look ahead to the 2024 MLB season

As the calendar turns to April, the 2024 MLB season kicks off this week. With the return of baseball, comes the return of the 10 random thought posts and in two days the daily game recaps. The 2023 season ended in anticlimactic fashion with the Blue Jays getting shut out 2-0 to the Minnesota Twins after pulling starting pitcher Jose Berrios. Predictably, the Twins immediately scored a pair of runs off of reliever Yusei Kikuchi, who was arguably the Blue Jays comeback player of the year in 2023. The obvious need heading into the off-season was upgrade the offense, which consistently failed to drive in runners in scoring position through the 2023 campaign. This random thoughts post will examine the Blue Jays home run swing at attempt to snag the biggest fish in free agency, Shohei Ohtani, who created a buzz a tweet came out December 12th that the modern day Babe Ruth was on a plane to Toronto to sign a record deal with the Blue Jays. a day later, he announced on his Instagram page that he had instead signed with the LA Dodgers and choose to remain in LA, but more on that later. We'll also look at injury concerns heading into the season and more. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB. 

1. As per usual, we will begin this post current injury concerns heading into the season. Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen will begin this season the way he ended last season, rehabbing from a broken bone in his throwing hand. On September 1st last season, Jansen broke a bone in his middle finger of his throwing hand when a pitch was deflected by a batted ball. He missed the rest of the regular season, as well as the two wild card games of the abbreviated postseason. Fast forward six and a half months, and Danny Johnson was back at square one after getting hit by a fastball, breaking the pisiformis bone in his throwing hand. It's incredible how often the Blue Jays catcher finds himself dealing with an injury. He's hit frequently by deflected balls due to his poor positioning of his throwing hand when receiving a pitch. Most catchers are smart enough to position their catching hand behind their back when receiving a pitch, However, Jansen tends to leave his hand exposed. Jansen also does not wear batting gloves when batting, perhaps something that will change after a stint on the shelf after getting hit by a fastball. In his absence, what the Blue Jays are hoping will be relatively short-term, Alejandro Kirk the bulk of the starts with Payton Henry backing him up. The Blue Jays rotation will be a man short with Kevin Gausman expected to miss at least the first turn through the rotation as he ramps back up after he didn't bounce back very well after his first spring training appearance. An MRI show no major structural damage thankfully, but the Blue Jays will certainly be cautious with their ace. Another pitcher who didn't bounce back from his first spring training appearance was Alek Manoah. the Blue Jays right-hander who really needs a strong showing after a disastrous 2023 season where he was demoted twice after several subpar starts. Manoah spent the offseason focusing on his physical fitness as well as revamping his delivery. his spot on the team, never mind the rotation, was something that he had to earn. Now, Bowden Francis has the opportunity to take that spot in the rotation for the season with Manoa likely to start in the minors, once he is healthy of course. Jose Berrios is lined up to get the opening day start with Chris Bassitt, Kikuchi, Francis and newcomer Yariiel Rodriguez to follow. the Blue Jays largely avoided a major core player missing significant time. Closer Jordan Romano is dealing with inflammstion in his throwing elbow. It is hoped that an injection will settle the issue. The backup closer Erik Swanson is dealing with forearm tightness too. Here's hoping both pitchers come  back in a timely manner. Like last season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer will get some games as DH. Justin Turner will get the bulk of the Reps as DH, along with potentially Joey Votto, should he make the team. 

2. A major need for the Blue Jays in the off-season to improve the offense. They chose to do so in two different ways: restructuring the coaching staff and through a couple of free agent signings. The inability to score runs was why today's word eliminated from the playoffs. The Blue Jays window to win the World Series will be as short as season with Guerrero Jr and Bichette heading for free agency after the 2025 season. Jansen becomes a free agent after this season. Hitting coach Guillermo Martinez remains in charge of dolphins the offense. Don Mattingly will have an expanded role as offensive coordinator. Minor league coach Matt Hague was promoted assistant hitting coach alongside fellow assistant heading coach Hunter Mense. Veteran 3rd base coach Luis Rivera retired at of the 2023 season and was replaced by Carlos Febles. Some of the runs not scored were due to some poor calls to send or not send baserunners. Bichette was throwing out at home a couple of times late in the season and in the postseason. Guerrero Jr. picked off second base in a key play in the elimination game. There are two thoughts that come to mind with the structuring of the coaching staff. Frst, will the different coaches be on the same page with respect to the strategy for the offense? Second, that's a lot of different opinions that players are going to have to consider when they are at the plate. Third, who is really in charge of hitting? Is it Martinez? Is it Mattingly, the offensive coordinator? Is it John Schneider, manager of the whole team? The past several years, the Blue Jays offense has largely been All or Nothing. they have players who can hit home runs, but they aren't very good at driving in runners when pictures are able to eliminate the home run through their pitch selection. The Blue Jays had one of the highest rates of leaving in scoring position in the first half of last season. They improved over the second half, but they couldn't drive in a run when it counted in fact, the Blue Jays had the bases loaded one out the sixth inning of game 2 of the Wild Card series and a single would have tied the game. Instead, Matt Chapman grounded into an inning-ending double play. In the final inning of the same game, the Blue Jays got a runner on first base with one out and couldn't advance him passed second base. The Blue Jays must change the approach at the plate if they are going to be successful in 2024. There is definite concern that there are no too many cooks in the kitchen with the restructuring of coaching staff. time will tell if the offseason changes improved the offense. 

3. In terms of free agency, the Blue Jays put all their proverbial eggs in one basket, taking run at signing top free agent Shohei Ohtani, who would have how old is the Blue Jays both offense and pitching (in 2025 after he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery. The 2024 free agent class was pretty weak overall with Chapman and Ohtani the clear best players available. things got interesting in mid-December when it was tweeted out Ohtani was on a plane to Toronto. That rumor ended up being false and Ohtani signed the biggest contract the MLB history the next day, with the vast majority of the contract deferred until the final years of the deal. After six seasons of futility with the Angels, Ohtani wanted a change of scenery, but evidently didn't want to venture very far. The Ohtani saga dragged out a couple of months and as a result Blue Jays lost out on a few other strong players who could have improved their lineup, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto among others. They did manage to retain center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who saved a few runs with outstanding defense ;last season. Sidewinder Adam Cimber, third baseman Chapman, and second baseman Whit Merrifield chose to leave as free agents. None of them were happy how last season ended. Chapman in particular, had a public spat in the dugout with manager Schneider, after the Blue Jays chose to pitch to Ohtani in a game against the Angels. The void at third base will be filled by committee with free agent signings Justin Turner and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa getting the bulk of the reps. Veteran utility infielder Cavan Biggio will also get some starts. Turner is coming off a solid season where he batted .276 with 23HR and 96RBI. Kiner-Falefa hit .242 with 6HR and 37RBI. An intriguing minor-league signing two weeks ago was to Canadian Joey Votto, who is in the twilight of his career and is just 25 hits shy of the Canadian MB record for career hits. He would add a left-handed option to the line up and could back up Laddy at first base. The Blue Jays are largely banking on the fact that so many players underperformed. they are hoping that Guerrero Jr bounces back to his 2021 season, had career high numbers and finished 2nd in AL MVP voting. Of course, Guerrero Jr. benefited from playing in minor league ballparks for much of the season with the Blue Jays unable to play in Toronto with covid restrictions. The MLB has to revamp its free agency rules. The Dodgers should not have been able to defer that much money Ohtani's record $700 million dollar deal to avoid the luxury tax and allow them to sign more players. Also, free agency is far too long. The MLB should adopt NFL's rules where teams have 5 days to negotiate with free agents. This makes for a much more robust off-season and it would take away the control the player agents have to drag out the process and manipulate things as happened with the Blue Jays and Ohtani where a rumor was started that had Ohtani on a plane to Toronto only for him to sign in LA after the Dodgers sweetened the deal a bit more. The MLB is the only league without a hard salarry cap. Instead there is a luxury tax that is applied to teams after they go over a certain payroll limit. This creates an environment where teams like Dodgers, Yankees and Padres can sign all the best players and create super teams. 

4. Moving on, Blue Jays fans will be able to enjoy the completed renovations that started at the end of the 2022 season. the first part of the renovations that were completed for the 2023 season focused on changing the outfield dimensions, raising the bullpens and knocking out the 500 level creating fan zones to watch the game. Last season's renovations focused on creating a new 100 level that bring the fand closer to the field (the seats in the new 100 level have adjustable armrests and cup holders). As a result of the renovations, the Blue Jays will begin their regular season on the road with a ten game trip. They will open the home portion of their schedule on April 7th against their expansion cousins Seattle Mariners. 

5. Like there is every year, there are going to be some rule changes MLB this season. One major new rule is the base runner is now going to be considered as being in the base path if they have both feet on the dirt. Up to this season, base runners had to run the last half of the distance between home and first base between the foul line and a 3-foot line drawn on the right hand side of the dirt. This move was made to prevent from blocKing bases. The pitch clock is also seeing a change decreasing from twenty seconds to eighteen seconds with runners on base. Pitchers will also have one less mound visit with the total allowed decreasing from five to four. An extra mound visit will be allotted to the defensive team after the 8th inning if that team is out of mound visits. Pitchers are still able to reset the clock by stepping off twice per plate appearance. Defensive players will be able to for a mound visit without actually visiting the mound. One delay tactic for the pitchers is being removed since the time clock operator will reset the clock after a dead ball and not after the pitcher has climbed the mound. A final rule change for this season is that pitchers warming up in the bullpen for the next inning will be required to phase one batter. Reducing the pitch clock and mound visits is going to be an effective way to decrease the time of games. However, it will not help slow pitchers like Alek Manoah, who struggled mightily to adjust to the pitch clock, and as a result had a disastrous 2023 season. as far as the reduction of mound visits. Not one team has reached the limit of mound visits since mound visits were introduced several seasons ago. A couple of thoughts come to mind with regards to batter limits for pitchers that are warming up in the bullpen. First, if it is a left-handed pitcher warming up in anticipation of facing a left-handed batter, the opposing team is almost certainly going to pull the batter in favor of either a switch hitter or a right-handed batter. Also, what if there are two pitchers warming up in the bullpen. Would it be okay to announce one pitcher into the game, remove them once the other team pinch hits and then use the other pitcher. Both pitchers will surely be ready, so it will not decrease the warm up time or add three minutes to the game. 

6. Is this going to be the last season in the Blue Jays competitive window? if the season really goes off the rails and the Blue Jays are out of contention around the All-Star break, the Blue Jays could explore trading players who will be up for free agency at the end of the 2025 season or even this season. it is going to be important that the team advance past the Wild Card round to show Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that the team is serious about competing. Blue Jays have some intriguing prospects be ready to join the team full time very soon. David Schneider real promise in his cup of tea last season. Can he repeat what he did after he was called up or was it just a hot streak? Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes are also viable options will have big league experience. The Blue Jays cut ties with utility man Santiago Espinal, trading him to the Cincinnati Reds for minor league pitcher Chris McEvian after Espinal was clearly out played by Clement and Schneider in spring training this year. Espinal hit .273 with 11HR and 99RBI over 4 seasons with the Blue Jays. Ricky Tiederman is quickly rising through minors and is the Blue Jays top prospect. Guillermo Martinez is likely on a short leash after the disastrous season last year where the Blue Jays struggled mightily with runners in scoring position. The bottom line is the Blue Jays need success now. 

7. Three Blue Jays that need to impress: 

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -Three years removed from his career high in pretty much every offensive category call, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.will be looking to show that 2022 and 2023 were anomalies and not his true self. Another thing Guerrero Jr. needs to show is that he is serious about the game (and I'm not talking about him fun in the dugout celebrating when good things happen. Guerrero Jr is prone to mental lapses that lead to errors. Case in point, game two of the wild-card series in October. Vlad was picked off second base with one out and the Blue Jays to score a run. He has also had lapses in the field which led to errors that put runners scoring position or worse. free agency is coming up fast for Guerrero Jr. and he's going to want to showcase himself to the league. Should this season goes sideways, it is possible that Guerrero Jr, will be traded at the trade deadline to gain assets as opposed to losing him for basically free in two year's time.
• Danny Jansen - And now we come to the perennially injured Danny Jansen. Every season it seems like the veteran Blue Jays catcher misses time for one at least one injury (although usually he has more than one stint on the IL). As mentioned above, one major factor in Jansen's unfortunate injury history is where he positions his hand when receiving a pitch. Catcher is the most physically demanding position on the field and catchers do get banged up as the season progresses. However, some of the injuries could be prevented if he would just put his hand behind his back when receiving a pitch. When he is at bat, Jansen also seems to be a magnet for getting hit by a pitch. He also doesn't work batting gloves, which makes him more at risk of getting injured, not only getting hit by a ball. but due to the vibrations of ball hitting bat. When Jansen is healthy, he is amoong the top catchers defensively and can contribute to the offense. Did I forget to mention that Jansen will be a free agent after this season. Are the Blue Jays going to commit to him long-term? Certainly he will be coveted in the offseason by teams looking to upgrade at catcher.
• Alek Manoah - Finally, there's Alek Manoah. Drafted in the first round of the 2019 amateur draft, Manoah made his big league debut two years later against the Yankees. He was solid in both 2021 (9-2, 3.22ER over 20 starts) and 2022 (16-7, 2.24ERA in 31 starts). Last season was a different story. Manoah came into spring training last year having gained weight in the off-season, and was out of shape. He also had to adapt to some major changes in the rules, in particular the pitch clock and rules around delay tactics. Manoah is among the slowest pitchers to pitch. it seemed that he was rushed a lot of times and as a result he was hitting batters and walking batters. The pitches he did get over the plate often caught too much of the plate and were hit hard. Manoah was demoted twice last season, June 6th to the Florida development league, which is the lowest rank in the minor league system. The thought was to do a Roy Halladay style reset. The Blue Jays deceased ace went through a similar reset after struggling in the higher level. The day before that demotion, Manoah didn't even get out of the first inning and gave up a grand slam home run. A month later after two starts in the minors, neither of which were very good, Manoah was back in the bigs. after 6 more start where Manoah continued to struggle with his command, Manoah was sent back the minors, this time the Triple-A level. He would not throw another pitch and did not report right away to Buffalo. the team also took time to examine him to rule out physical injury impacting his picture. Factors on why Manoah struggled so mightily include adjusting to the pitch clock, his physical fitness, players adjusting to his pitching after facing him for a couple of seasons, and his attitude (Manoah wasn't afraid to trash talk the other players while on the field. Manoah came into spring training visibly in better shape. However, he made only one spring training start due to tightness in his right shoulder. The first appearance wasn't exactly encouraging multiple walks. Maybe starting in the minors might be a good thing for Manoah, build up some confidence against weaker batters. If Bowden Francis throws well to start the season, Manoah may have to wait for an injury before he gets an opportunity for the Blue Jays again.

8. Here are some individual award predictions:

• AL MVP:  Marcus Semin - he led the league in games played (162), at bats (670), runs (122) and hits (185), Semien also 3rd in RBIs (100) and 12th in home runs (29). Also, Shohei Ohtani is now in the National League.
• NL MVP: Freddie Freeman - finish third in MVP voting last season and now has better protection line up with Shohei Ohtani, meaning he should see better pitches.
• AL CY YOUNG: Kevin Gausman - led the league in strikeouts last season and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. With last year's Cy Young winner, Gerritt Cole expected to miss the first month or two of the season with a forearm strain, the competition for the Cy Young Award is wide open.
• NL CY YOUNG:Spencer Strider - led both leagues in wins (20) and strikeouts (180) and finished 4th in NL Cy Young voting last season. With Blake Snell also likely missing month or so of the season, since he did not sign until March 19th with the San Francisco Giants, unless he has a stellar season, the NL Cy Young Award will likely see a new winner.
• AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Evan Carter - he made the Texas Rangers late in the season and ended up being on the playoff roster. He looked great in the 23 games played in the regular season last season, batting .306 with 5HR and 12 RBI. He also hit.300 with a home run and 6 RBI in the postseason.
• NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Yoshinobu Yamamoto - coming over from Japan, Yamamoto Boutique the majors by storm. Sure he had a rough outing in his first regular season start, but he's going to bounce back and dominate.

9. Here are my predictions of who makes the playoffs and the world series winner:

AL EAST DIVISION WINNER: Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL DIVISION WINNER: Minnesota Twins

AL WEST DIVISION WINNER: Texas Rangers

AL WILD CARD TEAMS: Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians

NL EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONS: Atlanta Braves

NL CENTRAL DIVISION WINNER: Milwaukee Brewers

NL WEST DIVISION WINNER: LA Dodgers

NL WILD CARD TEAMS: San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies

WORLD SERIES WINNER: Dodgers over Rays

10. Blue Jays player of Spring traning: Ernie Clement. Signed as a free agent by the Blue Jays a year ago, Clement was called up a few times in the 2023 season. While he got a few games in his brief stints in the first half of the season and August, he became a regular in the lineup when he was recalled at the end of August. Clemente showed that he had potential be an asset as a utility infielder. He batted .380 with a home run and 10 RBI over 29 games and 50AB last season. In spring training, Clement was outstanding, hitting .380 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. in fact, his play was so good, along with Davis Schneider, that the Blue Jays traded Santiago Espinal to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a minor league pitcher late in spring training.