With opening day 2025 around the corner, it's time to kick things off with a preview to what will be a crucial season for the Blue Jays. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette both set to hit free agency at the end of the season and Kevin Gausman set to become a free agent after the 2026 season (Alejandro Kirk was set to become a free agent after the 2026 season as well, but the Blue Jays extended him for 5 more seasons yesterday, keeping him in a Blue Jays uniform through the 2031 season), it feels like the competitive window is quickly closing. Last season was a disappointment with the Blue Jays finishing below .500 for the first time since the 2019 season with a 74-88 record. The offence and bullpen were major issues that needed to be addressed. The Blue Jays responded by firing htting coach Guillermo Martinez and replacing him with former Twins hitting coach David Popkins. Additionally, Lou Iannotti was appointed as an assistant hitting coach, Graham Johnson will serve as bullpen coach and Sam Greene will be an assistant pitching coach. Don Mattingly will be a traditional bench coach and not an offensive coordinator. This blog post will look ahead to the season with injury concerns, key players to watch and more. Here are 10 random thoughts from around the MLB.
1. The Blue Jays enter the 2025 season in good health. The biggest concern is wtth projected 5th starter Max Scherzer (2-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 9 starts in 2024) who has been dealing with a sore thumb, an issue that dates back to 2023. In the interim, the Blue Jays will likely go with Bowden Francis (8-5 with a 3.30ERA in 27 appearances (13 starts) last season) Another concern is with reliever Erik Swanson (2-2 with a 5.03ERA in 45 appearances last season), who is dealing with median nerve contraption. He was rushed back last season and his play suffered, so expect the team to be more cautious this time around. Reliever Zach Pop (2-4 with a 5.59ERA in 58 appearances last season) is experiencing some discomfort in his right elbow, hopefully it doesn't develop into season-ending tommy-john surgery.. Finally, righty Ryan Burr is recovering from right shoulder fatigue and will begin the season on the IL
The Blue Jays have several pitchers expected back mid-season from Tommy John surgery. Alek Manoah (1-2 with a 3.70ERA in 5 starts in 2024) was the first to receive tommy john surgery, June 17 last season. He took a huge step in his rehab, throwing off a mound for the first time since the surgery last week. Suffice to say, Manoah still has more to do in his rehab before he is back pitching in the majors, but it was still great to see him in the bullpen. Expect Manoah to return sometime around the all-star break, although he won't be rushed back. Another pitcher the team will be very cautious in his return from tommy john surgery is lefty prospect Rickey Tiedernann, who has dealt with numerous injuries since he was selected in the 3rd round of the 2021 MLB draft, including shoulder/biceps injuries in 2023 that limited him to 44 innings that year. Given how late in the season he had the surgery (end of July), it is doubtful he'll get into any big league games this season. If all goes well with his rehab, Tiedermann may start facing hitters in August and maybe he'll be ready to start a rehab in early September, but given his injury history and age, the team won't rush his rehab. Tiedermann is still largely expected to be a future ace in the Blue Jays rotation. Last, but not least, lefty prospect Brandon Barriera is making his way back from a combo tommy john and internal brace surgery from April 29, 2024. He may be game ready soonest, but his rehab may be complicated by the complexity of the surgery.
As far as position players are concerned, Daulton Varsho is the biggest question mark. While he got some reps at DH during spring training, he will start the season on the IL. This is a smart move to prevent further damage to his shoulder sliding into a base. The Blue Jays will also be keeping close tabs on Bo Bichette, who missed half the year in 2024 with a nagging calf injury that put him on the IL three times before a finger fracture ultimately ended his season, and catcher Alejandro Kirk, who will be handling a bigger workload behind the plate as the Blue Jays starting backstop. Expect the DH role to be a rotating position between Vlad, Bichette, Kirk and George Springer.
2. Whether he or the Blue Jays like it or not, until Vlad signs a contract, his free agent status will be a distraction this season. Vlad is the Blue Jays best player and someone every team would love in the middle of their lineup. Guerrero Jr. made it very clear that once spring training started, there would be no more contract talks until the end of the season. Could things change if Vlad struggles with the distraction and the Blue Jays are tanking? Possible, but I think it will make him want to test free agency even more because winning is going to be a factor and I am sure he is aware the Blue Jays competitive window may be closing and the cupboards are pretty bare in the minors. I think Vlad will be just fine statistically. Juan Soto did ok last year with the Yankees, hitting .288 with 41HR, 109RBI and a league leading 128 runs scored. In 2023, Shohei Ohtani hit .304, beltted 44HR and had 95RBI. I'm not going to delve into Ohtani's pitching stats since that's not a real comparison since Vlad doesn't pitch. Vlad's career year came in 2021 when he benefited from playing in minor league ballparks for half his home games due to the pandemic. Based on the past few seasons, I'd expect Vlad to hit around .300, belt 25-30HR and drive in around 100runs. Bo Bichette is good as gone as it seems like the Blue Jays are expecting to only be able to afford one of himself and Vlad and the Blue Jays haven't put any effort into signing him long-term. Maybe Vlad puts a bit of pressure on management and makes signing Bo long-term a condition of his deal. Blue Jays fans, enjoy the next 4 months because Bo and Vlad could well be traded at the deadline to avoid losing them both for nothing but some draft compensation.
3. The major change was to the offence where the Blue Jays will have a new hitting coach, David Popkins, with the hopes of generating more offense to support what's expected to be a strong rotation anchored by ace Jose Berrios, and an improved bullpen. Don Mattingly is back as a more traditional bench coach after a failed experiment as offensive coordinator, which just created a too many cooks in the kitchen scenario. Popkins should be the main voice in the room as hitting coach. Anthony Santander was an interesting signing, who will surely provide protection in the lineup for Vlad. Last season, Santander batted .235 with a career-highs in HR (44) and RBI (102). The Blue Jays also traded for Andres Gimenez, who will provide some stability in the infield defensively and could well be a replacement for Bo Bichette if the Blue Jays los him to free agency in the off-season. Gimenez batted .252 with 9HR and 63RBI in 152 games and 583AB. Max Scherzer was another interesting signing that could prove sneaky good. There is precedence for 40 year-old pitchers to excel in the majors. Randy Johnson threw a perfect game at age 40, Roger Clemens won his last Cy Young at age 42 and Nolan Ryan was 44 when he threw his last no-hitter. Health is going to be a big factor to watch and at the moment, a sore thumb is causing concern for Scherzer. Even if he can't contribute on the field, he'll be a great mentor for the Blue Jays young pitchers like Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis. Finally, the Blue Jays will be turning to Jeff Hoffman, ex-prospect of the Blue Jays, to close out games after non-tendering Jordan Romano. The non-tendering of Romano was necessitated by concerns about his health. Hoffman was 3-3 with a 2.17ERA and 10 saves in 68 appearances last season.
4. Three key players to watch:
- Bo Bichette - Bichette is looking for a bounceback season in more ways than one. First and foremost, he will be hoping his leg woes are behind him. Bichette landed on the IL three times last season with a nagging calf injury and his season ended with a fractured finger during warm-ups. Statiscally, Bichette had his worst season since his rookie year, batting .225 with 4HR and 31RBI. Expect him to bounce back with a big year ahead of free agency.
- George Springer - The aging Blue Jays outfielder has been declining stastically since the Blue Jays inked him to a 6-year deal 4 years ago. He's still capable of making big plays in the outfield and will be platonning with Anthony Santander in the outfield. Springer will start in his customary leadoff spot to start the season, but on a short leash. The team can't afford the leadoff guy to be making an out more often than not. A good season for Springer would see him hitting closer to .250, hitting 20-25HR and driving in 70-75 runs. Being close to an automatic out won't cut it.
- Jose Berrios - The undisputed ace of the Blue Jays pitching staff, Jose Berrios could be a Blue Jay through the 2028 season, if he doesn't elect to opt out following the 2026 season. Berrios has developed into a strong starting pitcher, one of Pete Walker's best pet projects in his decade as pitching coach. Last season, Berrios was a solid 16-11 with a 3.60ERA over 32 starts (21 quality starts). The team will need him to lead by example and eat up those innings.
5. Three key series to watch
- March 27-30 vs. Baltimore Orioles - This is both the season opening and home-opening series and will be a good first test to start the season. Anthony Santander faces his old team right off the bat, and no doubt he'll be eager to have a big series to show the O's what they will be missing from their lineup. Jose Berrios makes the opening day start for the 3rd time in 4 years. Andres Gimenez makes his Blue Jays debut at 2b. Could we get a Daulton Varsho sighting at DH? He won't be ready to play in the outfield, but the Blue Jays might want his lefty bat in the lineup.
- August 8-10 @ LA Dodgers - The Blue Jays head to sunny LA for a great measuring stick series against the defending world Series champs, who appear even deeper after adding lefty Blake Snell to their rotation, They also won the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes and added solid relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. Teo reupped for 3 years and Michael Conforto will bring further depth to an already stacked outfield. Shohei Ohtani should be back to being a double threat as a DH and pitcher. He has already started pitching off a mound following a year off of pitching due to a second tommy john surgery. The Blue Jays could look vastly different if Vlad and Bo Bichette are moved for prospects ahead of pending free agency.
- September 15-18 @ Tampa Bay Rays - If all goes well this season, the Blue Jays should be in the mix for a wild card spot, making this mid-September series at the Rays temporary home at the Yankees spring training facility with Tropicana Field out of commission thanks to Hurricane Milton, a key series against the always stingy Rays, who will surely be in the wild card mix. These two sqauds face off again the following week in Toronto.
6. There are 2 rule changes coming for the 2025 MLB season. First, the infield shift rule where there must be 2 infielders on eitther side of 2nd base has been tweaked so the batter will be awarded 1st base automatically if there is an illegal defense on the play. This should benefit lefty batters who teams had used the shift against most frequently. The second rule change involves a scenario where there are runners on the corners with 2 outs and a ground ball is hit with the defending team opting for the forceout at 2nd to end the inning. Teams, in particular the Yankees, were deploying the strategy of running through the bag at 2nd base like it's 1st base where you can run past the bag. The runner would still be out for leaving the baseline, but the run would count. Now, the run won't count if replay shows the runner abandoned the baseline before the run scored
While it won't be implemented for the 2025 season, Robo umps and the ability to challenge balls and strikes was tested during spring training. Robo umps and the ability to challenge balls and strikes was used in the minor leagues last season and could be in the majors as soon as the 2026 season. Traditionalists will argue that renoving the human element of umpires calling balls and strikes is a step too far. However, a roboump system should be more accurate in the long run and strike zones will be more consistent and won't be impacted by the positioning of the home plate umpire. Also, some of the more extreme framers behind the plate, such as Alejandro Kirk, can screw up the umpires ability to accurately make the right call. My only question is whether movement of the glove will impact the laser system. That is why there needs to be a challenge system in place.
7. My regular season awards predictions:
- AL MVP - Bobby Witt Jr. - Was right behind last year's AL MVP Aaron Judge in most of the offensive statistical categories, who lost some of his protection in the lineup with Juan Soto signing with the Mets and Giancarlo Stanton's season in doubt with severe elbow injuries. Look for Witt Jr. to take the MLB by storm and dethrone the current MVP.
- NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani - the Japanese phenom is going to continue to be a dominant force at the top of a lethal looking Dodgers lineup. Ohtani created and is the only member of the 50-50 club and is showing no signs of slowing down. Oh yeah, and he'll be back on the bump this season and he's no slouch as a pitcher either.
- AL Cy Young - Jose Berrios - the Blue Jays ace is going to benefit from having veteran Max Scherzer to mentot him and he will continue to dominate in his starts, giving the Blue Jays a chance to win every 5 days. Berrios was second in the AL in wins last season (16) and had 21 qua
- NL Cy Young - Zach Wheeler - he was second in most of the pitching statistical categories behind Chris Sale. Look for him to have a huge year
- AL rookie of the year - Righty Kumer Rocker - the 3rd overal pick of the 2022 MLB entry draft, Rocker looks poised to step into the major leagues after excelling in the minors the last 2 seasons (2023 was a wipeout due to tommy john surgery). It will help having easy opponents in the Mariners and the Angels
- NL rookie of the year - Roki Sasaki - the big international free agent of the off-season, his deadly splitter that behaves differently to right handed vs. left-handed batters is going to leave hitters baffled.
8. Look for the Dodgers to repeat as world series champs against an upstart Guardians team that gave the Yankees fits in last year's ALCS
9. Speaking of the Yankees, they'll be allowed to have facial hair (provided its neat and cut short, so no Justin Turner beard) after they nixed their policy on no facial hair or sideburns. This is a welcome change that I'm sure the players will enjoy and embrace.
10. Finslly, let's end things with a discussion of our favorite Blue Jays opening momeents. One of mine is Tony Batista walking off the Royals in 2000. How about Shannon Stewarr finishing a triple shy of the cycle the following year. Then there was the 16 inning marathon to start the 2012 season in Cleveland. Weigh in with your favourite Blue Jays opening day moment below.
